Apple Is Down YTD Ahead of Earnings. What Does Its Chart Say?Apple NASDAQ:AAPL will report earnings Thursday at a time when the tech giant has been struggling more than most other "Magnificent Seven" stocks or higher-end, AI-focused companies. What does fundamental and technical analysis say about AAPL heading into the report?
Let's see:
Apple's Fundamental Analysis
Apple was down 14.4% year to date as of Friday's close, while the S&P 500 was up 8.6%.
Meanwhile, fellow Mag-7 members Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT -- the only publicly traded U.S. companies other than Apple with more than a $3 trillion market cap -- are up 29.2% and 21.9%, respectively.
AAPL has lagged largely because the consumer-electronics giant has dragged its feet on innovation, as well as on the great chase into the world of generative artificial intelligence.
Readers might recall that back in early May, Apple's board increased the firm's dividend payout and authorized a whopping $100 billion share-repurchase program in an attempt to attract investment. But so far, that hasn't seemed to impress Wall Street much.
As for Apple's upcoming fiscal Q3 earnings, the Street is looking for the company to post $1.42 a GAAP EPS of $1.42 on some $89 billion of revenue.
That would represent 1.4% earnings growth and 3.7% better revenues from the $1.40 EPS on $85.8 billion of revenues that the iPhone maker reported in the same period last year.
If this sounds like weak growth, it is. Apple saw 6% year-over-year growth during fiscal Q2 2025, as well as 4.9% in fiscal Q3 2024.
In fact, 20 of the 29 sell-side analysts that I found that cover AAPL lowered their earnings estimates lower for the fiscal Q3 since the period began. (Five have boosted their numbers, while four have made no changes.)
Apple's Technical Analysis
Now let's look at Apple's chart going back to November:
Readers will see that the stock appears to be at a crossroads.
On one hand, Apple developed a "triple-top" pattern of bearish reversal beginning in early May, as marked with red boxes at the above chart's right.
A triple top occurs when a "double-top" pattern fails and a stock retests its resistance from below for a third time.
However, we can see at the chart's extreme right that AAPL has just about reached its resistance level for a fourth time.
What now? Often when someone knocks on a door often enough, that door will open.
Perhaps even more interestingly, we can see that Apple's roughly $215 resistance level (vs. the $213.88 AAPL closed at Friday) appeared at almost precisely the 50% retracement point of the stock's December 2024-April 2025 sell-off.
Note that while they're included with most Fibonacci retracement models, 50% retracements aren't true Fibonacci levels. They are their own thing, but just as technically noteworthy.
All in, Apple now has two potential upside pivots.
One would be the break above the apex of the pattern that's in place. The other would be Apple's 200-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," marked with a red line above.)
That creates a potentially bullish set-up. Apple could see support from both its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," denoted with a green line above) and from its 50-day SMA (the blue line above). That's likely where we'll find out if professional managers are willing to defend the stock.
Meanwhile, Apple's Relative Strength Index (or "RSI," marked with a gray line at the chart's top) is robust, but not in a technically overbought state.
Similarly, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," denoted with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom), has a bullish look to it, but not overwhelmingly so.
The histogram of Apple's 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is above zero, which is historically a short-term positive signal.
Additionally, both the 12-day EMA (black line) and 26-day EMA (gold line) are above zero, with the black line above the gold line. That's traditionally a short- to medium-term positive signal as well.
Still, it's what happens at that fourth top in the above chart that will likely decide Apple's fate technically.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in AAPL at the time of writing this column.)
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