ASML Holding N.V. - New York Registry Shares forum
1. Tariff uncertainty resolved: With the recent EU–US deal, semiconductor equipment exports—including ASML’s lithography systems—are exempt from tariffs. This eliminates a significant uncertainty that had weighed on sentiment and could have lowered the company margins.
2. Strong buyback momentum: ASML is well into its €12 billion 2022–25 share repurchase program. As of mid‑July 2025, the company has already spent approximately €5.8 billion on buybacks. Recent weekly repurchases of about €61.5 million show continued execution of capital returns even in uncertain markets.
3.Valuation gap remains wide: Analysts’ 12‑month price targets average around €758, with highs exceeding €950 and some models suggesting a fair value up to €1,000+ per share. Even using conservative multi‑year EPS and P/E assumptions, the stock could justify pricing near €900‑€1,000.
4. Dividend adjustment likely muted. Today is ASML’s ex-dividend date. While share prices typically dip by the dividend amount, the simultaneous positive news on tariff exemptions may offset or overshadow that mechanical adjustment.
5. Recovery phase underway: With tariffs off the table, aggressive buybacks reinforcing shareholder value, and structural demand for AI‑driven chip production intact, ASML appears set to enter a recovery phase. The current stock price—well below both analyst targets and implied fair value—is likely discounting risks that are now being managed.
Good luck to everybody! 🚀