6/6/25 - $gamb - Portfolio update 6/6/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GAMB
Portfolio update
- mkt sentiment right now is in twilight zone. ape plays running hard. commodities signs of life. ten year static. and headline drama is informing the sentiment. (remember narrative follows price, not the other way around).
- so i think we enter a period where mkt has recovered. we could run. we could dump. probably still +ve drift all else equal. but there are more things that can go wrong that can go right. ultimately the market will remain bid, however, as that's the trend, until something changes. but the "easy money" (iykyk) is done, for now.
- so i'm structuring my book in a way where i have enough dry powder to chase, deploy strategically, but also have a breath of fresh air. still doing solid 20s % on the year and it's been nuts. summer is coming. nothing too obvious out there.
- OTC:OBTC remains my BTC exposure of choice on trad rails. ended the day at about 15% off spot. that's about 35% of my book. i think the convert or merge into ETF is 90-120 days and so a 20% bump is worth the neck. it's big enough to matter, not big enough to hurt if BTC gives us another dip. and ultimately, the only money i can find that's the best denominator and the best bullchit agnostic.
- NASDAQ:NXT has been working nicely. solar subsidies have been the fly in the ointment, but this team just continues to deliver. regardless of the noise. this is about a 17% position for me, nearly 30% gross (2027 ITM LEAPS) and i'm just going to let it run. i'd like to see it lower. but this has worked. no touch.
- NASDAQ:GAMB is the new big spot that i've been wrangling since the last (quite good) EPS and the stock did the walk of shame. small caps will be small caps. ppl r concerned that AI demonetizes their currently larger SEO-style biz. that's fair. but data is 25% of rev/ebitda and worth a 2-3x multiple. so as long as they keep growing that in the DD+ the stock will grow into it's natural valuation, anyway, eventually. but i also think the AI concern is overblown and the content/ leads that gamb continues to deliver underscore this. founder led, DD fcf yields. now some good bullish divergence on the daily. you can spot the inverse head and shoulders if u squint hard enough. you know that's not my game. but the setup remains HQ. that's 10% on 4-1 ITM leverage (so 40% gross).
- i necked on NASDAQ:TSLA y day. caught low too. but it's back to a super LEAP position, about 5%. comfy. small enough to not care, large enough to get some juice. still want it lower.
- NYSE:TSM remains 5% (8% gross) LEAPs... again, comfy. want more and will be buying dips. it's too small. but will let it run.
- about 37% gross short on mostly NASDAQ:BUG (i've written about this) thru Dec ATM puts. IV is 20%. seems cheap for the protection it grants for super high multiple stuff which will get dumped first (in profit!) if/as mkt beta turns. for now it's been solid mkt beta. but it's 10-1 for me on about 3%, so 30% ish. and i have some shorts on NYSE:QBTS and NASDAQ:WING , but i trade these around. the main short/ hedge is NASDAQ:BUG
- and about 25% cash give or take.
have a wonderful weekend. <$
V
