Crude Oil Stuck in Consolidation Watch for Breakout! Hey Traders so today was looking at oil market seems to be stuck in a very powerful pattern called the Narrow Sideways Channel. Basically market has been going no where for the last 75 days stuck between the highs and the lows moving back and forth moving sideways.
Most traders have probably fallen alseep because this market is boring as watching paint dry
just stuck in a range of $55-$65. I guess some traders can trade the range buy at the bottom or the channel sell near the top but imo the best way to trade is wait for a breakout of the channel.
Now if you research historical sideways channels or range markets you will find that almost every market that has ever traded sideways for more than 90 days or more led to an explosive breakout at one point in time!
Finally exciting news! That means the longer it consolidates the better for us traders to catch the breakout.
So if we look closely at the chart we can see right out of the channel top there is resistance ahead at $68. However if market can break above $68 and close above that level at the daily close that would be a serious buy signal for more upside. But don't go by intraday go by the close of the day intraday means nothing imo.
The Daily Close it all that counts!
So watch for breakout above $68 then look to buy on pullback if I does not break above $68 tje we are back to watching paint dry. 😂
Always use Risk Management!
(Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
CL1! trade ideas
#202523 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oilGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Time to be very cautious as a bear and hopeful as a bull. 3 clear legs down and the third could not make a new low. Now the market closed at the weekly high and it’s a fitting place for a reversal. 65 should be the highest bears should allow it. If bulls get follow-through beyond, this is a buy with stop 59.5. The target above 65 is obviously 70 and maybe even the bigger bear trend line around 73.
current market cycle: monthly time frame is a broad bear channel - weekly tf is a bear wedge - daily is a trading range
key levels: 59 - 65
bull case: Bulls got their first daily close above the weekly20 ema since February. Bears tried to get the market below 60 but failed to keep it below - 3 times now since April. Markets will try one thing only so much until they try something else. 65 is the next target which will likely get hit early next week but I expect a bit more sideways until one side clearly gives up. Technically this is a double bottom April/May lows and now a higher low and bulls want to get the major trend reversal.
Invalidation is below 65.5
bear case: Bears are hopeful that the bear wedge is still enough resistance that we test down to 60 but they need a strong reversal below 65 to make it happen and when a weekly bar closes at the very high, it’s probably not a good time to be a bear. Best bears can hope for here is to stay below 65 and continue inside the current range 60-65.
Invalidation is above 65.5
short term: Bullish. I think a bull breakout is much more likely than hitting 60 again. Buying 64.58 with a stop 59.5 is likely a decent trade already. Confirmation for the breakout is 65.5ish.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-08: Market finds no acceptance below 60 since 2021 and now we have 3 clear legs down, a higher low and a breakout above prior high with a weekly close at the highs and the weekly 20ema. This is likely as good of a swing long as you can get.
Oil Price on Cusp of Testing May HighThe price of oil is on the cusp of testing the May high ($64.19) after closing above the 50-Day SMA ($62.04) for the first time since April, with a break/close above $64.20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) bringing the April high ($71.16) on the radar.
Need a move/close above the $70.30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to $71.90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) zone to open up the February high ($73.84), but lack of momentum to push/close above $64.20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may keep the price of oil within the April range.
Failure to defend the advance from the weekly low ($61.06) may push crude back toward the $58.70 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to $60.50 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) region, with the next area of interest coming in around the May low ($54.84).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00Crude oil market analysis:
Crude oil is still bearish, and we will continue to sell on rebounds. If it does not break 65.00, it will fluctuate. The general trend is bearish. If it breaks, we will adjust our thinking. Today's crude oil is the key. Will it start to take off before the data? The previous crude oil inventory data did not allow crude oil to break the position. The crude oil fluctuation range is 60.00-65.00. If it breaks this range, we will adjust our thinking on fluctuations.
Operational suggestions
Crude oil-----Sell near 64.00, target 63.00-62.00
Liquidity Hunt: Crude Oil's Next TargetFenzoFx—Crude Oil remains below the $64.19 resistance level. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, and RSI 14 signals bearish divergence, suggesting a possible price dip.
Oil could briefly surpass $64.19 to grab liquidity before facing selling pressure. In this case, a drop toward the $61.72 support level may occur to fill the bullish fair value gap.
However, if Oil stabilizes above $64.19, the bearish outlook becomes invalid.
>>> Trade Crude Oil without swap and low spread at FenzoFx
WADZ & the Petrodollar RevivalGlobal FX Shift: The Rise of WADZ (2025–2026)
In mid-2025, a war between Iran and Israel spirals fast. Iran strikes hard, Israel’s defenses go offline from cyberattacks, and the U.S. surprisingly doesn’t intervene.
Instead, America steps in quietly, setting up a “peacekeeping” zone along the Jordan-Israel border. It’s called the West Asia Demilitarized Zone (WADZ) — but behind the scenes, it’s about control, not peace.
Oil jumps to $115.
Markets flip. USD/JPY and USD/TRY spike. EUR/USD slides.
Then the U.S. launches WZ-Digital, a USD-backed oil coin. Now, all oil in the region trades through America.
OPEC fractures. Saudi and UAE fall in line.
China gets iced out. USD/CNY shoots past 8.30.
In the desert, a secret U.S. city appears: The Watchtower — a hub that manages oil, data, and borders.
Regional FX Snapshot (2026)
Europe: Gas crisis deepens. EUR/USD drops to 0.95. East Europe leans on U.S.
China: Crypto-oil push fails. Capital flight triggers USD/CNY → 8.80.
Russia: Oil-for-yuan helps short-term, but ruble stays shaky.
Africa: Egypt & Morocco adopt WZ-Digital. Local currencies stay weak.
Southeast Asia: Dual oil trade (USD/WZ). SGD steady, MYR & IDR choppy.
(BRICKS+)
Latin America: Brazil, Argentina resist — then cave. USD demand surges.
Bottom Line:
By end of 2026, USD isn’t just money — it’s a global system.
WADZ quietly reprograms the rules of energy and trade.
No invasion, no headlines. Just quiet, total control.
Bye guys
ID: 2025 - 0146.16.2025
Trade #14 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 60 DTE (days to expiration).
BULLISH options trade executed on Crude Oil. Once price level of $75.00 gets taken out, this trade will get adjusted to secure a risk-free trade. Targets will be 100% ROI based upon this being a balanced bullish butterfly construct.
Defined risk
Defined reward
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00Crude oil market analysis:
We still buy crude oil in the recent daily line, but yesterday's crude oil daily line closed with a big negative line. Short-term crude oil is about to start repairing. The retracement during the repair is our opportunity to buy again. Crude oil follows the long-term trend. In addition, the war between Iran and Israel is a long-term support for crude oil purchases. If the situation escalates, crude oil may easily stand above the 100 mark in the later period. Consider buying crude oil at 71.00 today.
Fundamental analysis:
Yesterday, Iran and Israel began to bomb each other again, and the situation began to escalate.
Operation suggestions:
Crude oil---Buy near 71.00, target 76.00-79.00
CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025🛢️ CL Futures Weekly Trade Setup — June 17, 2025
🎯 Instrument: CL (Crude Oil Futures)
📉 Strategy: Short Swing
📅 Entry Timing: Market Open
📈 Confidence: 68%
🔍 Model Insights Recap
🧠 Grok/xAI – Bearish due to overbought RSI + price stalling near MAs
🤖 Claude/Anthropic – Bearish pullback expected, despite recent strength
📊 Llama/Meta – Overextended Bollinger Band + RSI = short bias
🧬 DeepSeek – Supports downside via divergence + high volatility
⚠️ Gemini/Google – Bullish thesis based on momentum; diverges from consensus
📉 Consensus Takeaway
While short-term momentum is strong, most models forecast a pullback due to:
🔼 Overbought RSI readings
📈 Price extended well above key moving averages
🧨 High volatility and profit-taking zone near $73–$74
✅ Recommended Trade Setup
Metric Value
🔀 Direction Short
🎯 Entry Price $72.65
🛑 Stop Loss $74.20
🎯 Take Profit $68.80
📏 Size 1 contract
📈 Confidence 68%
⏰ Timing Market Open
⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations
🌍 Geopolitical events or OPEC news can cause unexpected surges
📉 If bullish momentum resumes, upside breakout could invalidate short thesis
📏 Risk management is critical—stick to stop-loss if price breaks above $74.20
🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "CL",
"direction": "short",
"entry_price": 72.65,
"stop_loss": 74.20,
"take_profit": 68.80,
"size": 1,
"confidence": 0.68,
"entry_timing": "market_open"
}
💡 Watch price action at the open. If oil opens weak or fails to reclaim $73, this short setup has a strong edge.
WTI(20250617)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Revised version of the Republican tax cut bill in the US Senate: It is planned to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion, and the overall framework is consistent with the House version.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
70.41
Support and resistance levels:
75.98
73.90
72.55
68.27
66.92
64.84
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 72.55, consider buying, and the first target price is 73.90
If the price breaks through 70.41, consider selling, and the first target price is 68.27
WTI(20250616)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Trump: The United States may still intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict. If Iran launches an attack on the United States, the United States will "fight back with all its strength on an unprecedented scale." Iran and Israel should reach an agreement.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
71.11
Support and resistance levels:
78.59
75.79
73.98
68.24
66.43
63.64
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 73.98, consider buying in, the first target price is 75.79
If the price breaks through 71.11, consider selling in, the first target price is 68.24
Crude Oil - we follow up with the momenetumCrude Oil Analysis: Why Prices Could Keep Rising Amid Israel-Iran Conflict? 🛢 🛢 🛢
📈 📈 📈The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have significantly intensified geopolitical risk in the Middle East—home to a third of the world’s oil supply. As hostilities escalate, crude oil prices are poised for continued upward momentum due to three key factors:
1️⃣ Supply Disruption Fears: The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which 20% of global oil flows, could be compromised if Iran retaliates or is targeted more directly. Any disruption—even speculative—typically sends prices higher.
2️⃣ Production Uncertainty: Iran, a major OPEC member, may face new sanctions or physical damage to infrastructure. In retaliation, Iran could also target regional energy infrastructure, including in the UAE or Saudi Arabia, shrinking global supply.
3️⃣ Market Sentiment and Risk Premiums: Investors tend to price in risk quickly. With oil markets already tight due to OPEC+ cuts and tepid U.S. production growth, heightened instability adds a strong speculative premium.
Bottom Line: Unless the Israel-Iran conflict de-escalates, crude oil has a strong bullish case. With limited spare capacity globally and increased geopolitical fragility, expect prices to remain elevated or climb further—especially if rhetoric turns into regional escalation. 💡 💡
📌 Trade plan
⬇️ Entry : On market open
✅Target : 79.00
❌SL: 64.00
CL 4 hr. "Hopefully, the situation won't escalate further!"1). Inflation came-out lower, which is a Barometer for Oil! 2). Extension of 5 wave sequence! 3). Volume is starting to drop on the rise! 4). Banks are Buying liquidity! 5). Trend is intersecting with 200% Fib. level! 6). Economy is slowing! 7). Checks all the boxes for reversal! 8). Hopefully, the situation won't escalate further!
WTI(20250613)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 7 was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The monthly rate of the core PPI in the United States in May was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.30%. Traders once again fully priced in the Fed's two interest rate cuts this year.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
66.96
Support and resistance levels:
69.10
68.30
67.78
66.13
65.61
64.81
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 67.78, consider buying in, and the first target price is 68.30
If the price breaks through 66.96, consider selling in, and the first target price is 66.13
Crude Oil Breaks out of Channel More Upside Ahead?Hey traders so in continuation of the last post which was Can Crude Oil Close above $68?
The answer is YES that didn't take long. 😁
One rule to live by that I have learned as a trader is Always Expect the Unexpected in Trading!
So I bored out of my mind watching paint dry and then all of sudden Boom out of nowhere news that changes everything can happen in the blink of eye in these markets!
So what Happened Opec? Iraq? Inventory Reports?
Well truthfully it great to read to the news but I prefer to read the charts instead. The charts are already showing you that demand has increased so regardless of if you caught the news yesterday or not the charts have already told the story.
Ok so now what it has closed above $68 which a strong bullish candle on 06/11 so did we miss the move?
Not at all especially if this is the beginning of new trend so best way to trade the break out of a channel is watch for it to retest the breakout zone.
So the breakout zone on the charts was $65 but now at $68 so if we can get a retest of $65-66 I believe it would be a great place to buy back in this market.
Like I always say don't chase the market let it come to you. The party has already started but that doesn't mean you missed the party. We might get a second invitation at $65 or $66 so if trading this market place a buy order around there and stop loss somewhere below support and half way in the channel around $62-63 below to give the market room to breathe.
What if we don't get a retest?
Well thats how it is sometimes I would rather wait for the market to pullback then enter at the highest price of the move. I have missed moves sometimes because of this disicpline but sooner or later eventually the profit taking will bring it back down. Patience is key imo unless you don't mind buying at the high.
Also Seasonally Oil Prices normally get increased demand due to the summer driving season. I will say sometimes there are fake channel breakouts to watch out for but this one looks bullish imo.
Always use Risk Management!
(Just in case your wrong in your analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford