Circle Internet Group, Inc. Trade Ideas — NYSE:CRCL

6/16/25 - $crcl - I'm short 6/16/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:CRCL I'm short - it's much easier to find shorts in this tape than the converse - NYSE:CRCL is the chitstablecoin that broke a few yrs ago and nobody serious in "crypto" (when i mention "serious" i mean bitcoiners) uses - they basically hold deposits and give you a USD-style token and earn the spread - but if you look at financials... they don't make nearly as much $ as they should on these deposits - ofc they'll tell you they're doing a lot of other silly things - "yes" stables and the stables economy r red hot (hence the stonk price reaction). also kudos to them for IPO'ing in this window. it was really a great time to do it. so hats off. - but what is an inferior stable (USDT/ tether is the only legit product on the market) worth? - multiple hundreds of times PE? - 10x book? - guys... this is basically a one-trick-pony-bank, they aren't reinventing the wheel, and most products built around USDC won't likely be launched by circle b/c the org is slow/ expensive and will be highly regulated to doing such things in a reasonable window of time - so will it go higher? idk. idc. i'm looking for shorts. - this one is a bit OTM for oct. it's a helluva expensive short, probably for good reason - but i don't think this valuation holds - and it's great offset/ hedge to my monster OTC:OBTC stack, which i expect a convert in the next 2-3m to ETF, which means 15% upside on this holding. so i need an offset here, hence i'm looking for some beta-adjacent hedges. V

MY BEST TRADE - CRCL CRCL. A beautiful retest on liquidity zone. The stock retraced to exact marked levels and grabbed all the liquidity two times near 102 to 104. UP 31% till now.

CRCL Weekly Bearish Setup (Week of 2025-06-09)📉 CRCL Weekly Bearish Setup (Week of 2025-06-09) 🔍 Ticker: NYSE:CRCL Multi-model AI consensus indicates a bearish short-term outlook for CRCL this week, driven by weak technicals, downside pressure from max pain, and poor option liquidity. 🧠 Model Summaries: 🔹 Grok/xAI • 📉 Bearish: Price below 10EMA, negative MACD, RSI near 41 • 🧊 Support: $115.20 | Resistance: $116.34 • ⚠️ Max Pain: $100 → downside bias • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put (Jun 20) → PT: +50%, SL: –50% 🔹 Claude/Anthropic • 📉 Bearish intraday: below EMAs, negative MACD, RSI ~41 • ⚠️ Max pain at $100, light OI → downside risk • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put @ ~$12.95 → Target 30–50%, SL: 25% 🔹 Llama/Meta • ⚖️ Mixed: Slight short-term bearish tilt, but warns against poor liquidity • 💸 Trade: No Trade due to spread/premium inefficiency 🔹 Gemini/Google • 📊 Daily trend bullish, but intraday showing exhaustion • ⚠️ Extreme spreads, no open interest • 💸 Trade: No Trade recommended 🔹 DeepSeek • 🚨 Strong Bearish: Breakdown of $115.20 w/ volume, negative MACD, RSI ~41 • ⚠️ Sentiment: Max pain at $100 + bid-side put action • 💡 Trade: Buy $115 Put @ $12.70 → PT: $18.90 (+50%), SL: $8.82 (–30%) • 🔥 Confidence: 80% ✅ Market Consensus: 📉 Outlook: Bearish Bias – Short-term momentum is weak (price < EMAs, MACD negative) – RSI ~41 suggests downside room – Max pain at $100 = gravity effect – VIX falling = no panic relief for bulls – Key Level to Watch: Breakdown below $115 = confirmation 📌 Suggested Trade Setup 🎯 Symbol: NYSE:CRCL 🟢 Strike: 115 PUT 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-20 💵 Entry: $13.30 (ask) 🎯 Profit Target: $19.95 (+50%) 🛑 Stop Loss: $9.31 (–30%) 📈 Confidence: 75% ⏰ Entry Timing: At open ⚠️ Risk Watch: • ☠️ High premium & wide bid-ask spreads = slippage risk • ⛔ Low open interest = exit uncertainty • 🕒 Theta decay accelerates late in the week • 📈 Invalidated if price breaks above $116.34 • 📰 Unexpected crypto/news rallies = trend reversal risk 📊 TRADE JSON 💬 Are you trading this NYSE:CRCL bearish setup? Share your thoughts below. 📉📈 Follow for daily AI-powered trade breakdowns.

Buying CRCL after IPO — expecting a strong move like SEZL CRCL just hit the market after its IPO and is already showing signs of strength. This setup reminds me a lot of SEZL — after it went public, we saw a strong consolidation phase followed by a confident rally. Right now, CRCL looks like it’s building a solid base. I'm starting to buy around current levels, expecting demand to grow. As long as the structure holds and buyers stay active, I see a good chance for continuation to the upside. New IPOs like this often attract attention, and I’m treating it as an early opportunity. Same playbook as SEZL — patience and positioning.

Can $Circle keep going UP? Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:CRCL ) has experienced a remarkable surge since its IPO on June 5, 2025, with shares climbing nearly 273% from the initial offering price of $31 to approximately $115.65. Valuation Overview Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: CRCL's P/S ratio stands at 9.8x, which is higher than the U.S. software industry average of 5.3x. This suggests that the stock is trading at a premium compared to its industry peers. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis: According to Simply Wall St, the estimated fair value of CRCL shares is $65.05, indicating that the current trading price is approximately 27.9% above this valuation. Market Capitalization: The company's market cap has expanded significantly, reaching approximately $25.5 billion. Financial Performance Q1 2025 Revenue: $578.57 million Q1 2025 Net Income: $64.79 million USDC Transactions: USDC facilitated over $25 trillion in transactions since its launch, with $6 trillion in Q1 2025 alone. Bullish Factors: Strong Market Demand: The IPO was highly oversubscribed, reflecting strong investor interest. Institutional Support: Notably, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest acquired 4.48 million shares on the IPO day, indicating strong institutional interest. Regulatory Tailwinds: The proposed GENIUS Act could provide regulatory clarity for stablecoins, potentially benefiting Circle. Cautionary Factors: Valuation Concerns: Current trading prices are significantly above estimated fair value, suggesting potential overvaluation. Market Volatility: The cryptocurrency sector is known for its volatility, which could impact CRCL's stock performance. Conclusion While Circle Internet Group's stock has demonstrated impressive growth post-IPO, current valuations suggest that the stock may be overvalued relative to its intrinsic worth. Investors should weigh the company's strong market position and growth prospects against the potential risks associated with high valuations and market volatility. -Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Stock prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not personally liable for your own losses, this is not financial advise.

CRCL (“Circle”) | Long | Stablecoin | (June 17, 2025)CRCL (“Circle”) | Long | Stablecoin & Institutional Crypto Infrastructure | (June 17, 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: Circle, known for its USDC stablecoin and institutional crypto infrastructure, displays a financially solid foundation with healthy free cash flow and an evolving product footprint, making it a compelling long-term play. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long Entry: Blue-chip levels in the $100–$120 zone (assumed range near current $160) Stop Loss: ~$90 (well beneath key support zones) Take Profit 1 (TP1): $200 (psychological & projected 5‑year mid-target) Take Profit 2 (TP2): $250 (upper end of 5‑year expectation) 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ Latest revenue: ~$1.6 B with net income around $155 M; ~82–87 M floating shares, market cap ~$3 B. ✅ Free cash flow is ~6x less debt and matches cash levels—pointing to strong liquidity and balance sheet health. ✅ CEO Jeremy Allaire (since 2013) leads Circle’s path from peer payments to global crypto-financial infrastructure. ✅ Core stablecoin USDC, built on numerous chains (Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Optimism…), fuels 24/7 trading and reserves—~98% of income comes from net interest on reserves. ✅ Major partnerships include Visa, Shopify, Walmart, Ripple, Ledger, Coinbase, plus backing from Goldman Sachs—highlighting institutional trust. ✅ Regulatory-first design and transparency position Circle favorably amid evolving global crypto frameworks. 4️⃣ Optional Follow‑up Note: Will track key industry catalysts: regulatory clarifications (e.g. EU’s MiCA), stablecoin adoption rates, yield curve shifts impacting interest income, and enterprise integration announcements. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you find value in this idea! Also share your thoughts and charts in the comments section below! This supports keeping content free and reaching more people.

Circle Internet Group, Inc.

CRCL trade ideas