NZDJPY trade ideas
Bullish rise?NZD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could potentially rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 86.01
1st Support: 85.40
1st Resistance: 87.07
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NZD/JPYThe NZD/JPY had a weak weekly close, the week before last, after sweeping weekly buy side liquidity thus forming a weekly Doji The Doji conveyed a more bearish impulse by printing a new weekly lower low and closing below the previous week's settlement. After this run of BSL, on H4, price action experienced strong displacement lower, breaking structure and producing a market structure shift. I have been waiting for the swing low to form so that I can place entries at the 0.62, 0.705 and the 0.79 retracement levels. The 0.62 being just above the MSS, the 0.705 being just below the Bearish Breaker and the 0.79 level being within a bearish fair value gap whilst targeting the previous swing low or SSL level.
NZDJPY might need a strong catalyst to push higherAfter the RBNZ’s widely expected single cut on 28 May, NZDJPY made some gains amid unusually low volatility. Trade talks are in focus for both the Kiwi dollar and the yen with Japan in particular holding negotiations with the USA about which senior members of the BoJ have commented. Last week’s auction of 20-year Japanese bonds saw the weakest demand in more than a decade, prompting rumours that the Japanese ministry of finance might reduce the availability of such very long-term bonds. Meanwhile in monetary policy the differential is likely to remain at least 2.25% until the end of the year.
Compared to NZDUSD, here there might be more potential for gains. The price did briefly break above ¥87 this month although the reaction from there was quite strong. The slow stochastic is also still close to oversold, having recently completed a crossover on the border of the trigger zone. ¥84 is a possible short-term support.
A sustained movement above the 200 SMA and ¥87 would probably need a strong fundamental driver of some sort. That might come from some kind of development in various trade negotiations since usually the Kiwi dollar is more trade-sensitive than the yen. Trade data from New Zealand late on 2 June GMT probably won’t drive a large movement unless the results are very surprising, but Japanese GDP late on 8 June GMT could have a significant effect.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Bearish reversal?NZD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 86.38
1st Support: 84.37
1st Resistance: 87.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bearish drop?NZD/JPY is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 86.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 87.09
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 84.73
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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NZD/JPY BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
NZD/JPY SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 85.992
Target Level: 83.908
Stop Loss: 87.366
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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NZDJPY BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISNZDJPY has just completed a clean breakout from its descending channel, and we are now setting up for a potential bullish continuation. The breakout above the channel resistance confirms a reversal of the prior downtrend, signaling fresh bullish momentum in play. Price is currently hovering around 85.90, and I’m targeting a move toward 91.90 in the coming weeks as market structure shifts in favor of buyers.
Fundamentally, the New Zealand dollar is gaining strength following the RBNZ's recent hawkish stance. Despite global rate cut expectations, the RBNZ has held firm, emphasizing inflation remains elevated and may require prolonged tight policy. This divergence from other central banks, particularly the BoJ, gives NZD an upper hand. On the flip side, the Japanese yen continues to show weakness due to the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary stance, and there's still no concrete signal of a shift toward tightening. Yield differentials remain wide, fueling carry trades in favor of NZD.
Technically, the breakout is supported by strong bullish candles and increasing volume. The breakout level around 85.60 is now acting as fresh support, and as long as we hold above that zone, the bullish bias remains valid. The structure suggests momentum is building toward 88.50 as the next minor resistance, and a break above that could accelerate the rally to our full target at 91.90.
From a risk-reward perspective, this setup remains favorable. I'm closely monitoring bullish continuation patterns on lower timeframes to scale in. NZDJPY appears primed for a potential upside surge, supported by both fundamentals and technicals, and I’m looking to ride this trend as long as the current momentum holds.
NZD/JPY "Kiwi vs Yen" Forex Bank Heist (Day Trade Plan)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the Crossing previous high (86.000) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level for Pullback entries.
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📍 Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing low level Using the 30mins timeframe (84.800) Day trade basis.
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🏴☠️Target 🎯: 88.000
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
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NZDJPY Day trade/swing trade shortStrong weekly bullish rejection candle last week, the daily time frame has also turned bearish so some nice higher TF confluences. The 4h TF also being bearish and currently retesting the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern (blue curved lines). For me I’m not looking to enter anything today as the markets close for the weekend tomorrow but will be one to watch next week. Hope everyone has a good weekend! 🤙
NZDJPY → Pre-breakdown consolidation. Readiness for a declineFX:NZDJPY is under pressure from a global downtrend. Locally, a flat (range) and pre-breakdown consolidation relative to support are forming on the chart...
After a false breakdown of support on May 16, the price failed to reverse and grow. Instead, the currency pair entered a consolidation phase, during which it continues to test support. Each subsequent retest of 85.25-85.30 only increases the chances of a breakout with the aim of continuing the decline. Another important nuance is the elimination (short squeeze) of local resistance at 85.95.
Pressure on the price is also being exerted by the falling dollar index, which is strengthening the Japanese yen, which is generally reflected in the price of NZDJPY...
Support levels: 85.300, 85.25, 84.195
Resistance levels: 85.7, 85.95
The continuation of the current consolidation and the compression of the price towards support only increases the chances of a breakdown of the 85.30 support level. A break and consolidation of the price below 85.25 could trigger a further decline.
Best regards, R. Linda!
NZDJPY will continue to fall after false breakout NZDJPY is correcting after the support breakout. The purpose of such correction is to provoke bullish liquidity before the fall. There is a magnet on the market - liquidity in the zone 85.08 - 85.27. False breakout will return the market to the downward phase
Scenario: growth to local resistance, retest of the zone 85.08 - 85.27, false breakout, consolidation below 85.08 and continuation of the fall. Target - support and order-block 84.2
NZDJPY to continue in the downward move?NZDJPY - 24h expiry
The medium term bias remains bearish.
Short term RSI is moving higher.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 85.25.
We look to Sell at 85.25 (stop at 85.55)
Our profit targets will be 84.20 and 84.00
Resistance: 85.25 / 85.70 / 86.10
Support: 84.60 / 84.20 / 84.00
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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NZDJPY Will Solid breakout will Formed to short term NZDJPY Technical Outlook:
NZDJPY is currently under pressure, aligning with the broader global bearish trend. On the local scale, the pair is moving within a flat range, showing signs of a pre-downtrend consolidation near a key support level.
A false breakout has already occurred, suggesting that bearish momentum may be building. Price action indicates that a retest of the 85.400 support level is likely. A repeated test of this level typically increases the probability of a breakout to the downside, potentially initiating a continuation of the decline.
Key Technical Notes:
Resistance zone : 85.400
Major Support 84.200
Keep eye on the market how the price will react Keep support with like and comments for more better analysis Thanks.
NZDJPY: Long Signal with Entry/SL/TP
NZDJPY
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects growth
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy NZDJPY
Entry Level - 84.918
Sl - 84.386
Tp - 85.905
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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NZDJPY Wave Analysis – 22 May 2025- NZDJPY reversed from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 84.00
NZDJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 87.30 (which has been reversing the price from February, as can be seen below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from November.
The downward reversal from the resistance zone stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (A).
Given the overriding daily downtrend, NZDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 84.00 (low of the previous minor correction B).
NZD/JPY Breaks Wedge Structure – Bearish Setup Targets 82.42NZD/JPY has broken down from a rising wedge and failed to reclaim upper support, now acting as resistance. The structure is cleanly bearish on the 4H chart, with rejection near 85.60 and a confirmed lower high. Weak New Zealand data and rising safe-haven demand for JPY add weight to this technical setup. Price looks poised to extend toward 82.42 and possibly 80.99 if momentum builds. Bearish bias is valid unless price closes above 87.17.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Pattern: Rising wedge → broken → retest failed
Bear Flag: Forming below wedge base, suggesting further downside
Resistance Area: 85.60–87.17
Bearish Structure:
Lower highs and bearish candle formations
Price unable to reclaim former support trendline
Support Targets:
First TP: 84.00 – minor support, fib confluence
Second TP: 82.42 – March swing low
Final TP: 81.00 zone – next fib cluster
🌍 Macro Fundamentals
🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
Retail Sales missed: 0.0% vs 0.9% forecast → consumer sector is slowing
Core Retail Sales weak: 0.7% vs 1.4%
Dairy auction (GDT Index) down -0.9% → key export underperforming
Implication: Risk of slower growth → RBNZ may shift toward neutral/dovish stance
🇯🇵 Japanese Yen (JPY)
JPY supported by risk-off flows due to:
U.S. credit downgrade
Iran-US nuclear tension
Declining global PMI forecasts
Yen strengthens as traders seek safe havens despite BoJ’s dovish baseline
🎯 Trade Plan
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: 85.50–85.60 (confirmation area)
Targets:
TP1: 84.00
TP2: 82.42
TP3: 81.00
Stop Loss: Above 87.17 (invalidates wedge breakdown)
⚠️ What to Watch
China sentiment or surprise stimulus (may support NZD)
Sharp equity rallies (could reduce JPY demand short-term)
If NZD/JPY closes above 86.00, reduce position or stay out
🧭 Conclusion
NZD/JPY has rolled over from a broken rising wedge, now forming a clean bearish continuation structure. Weak NZ data and macro risk flows into JPY favor downside extension. This setup offers clear levels, defined risk, and macro alignment — ideal for disciplined short entries.
NZDJPY: The Price Started The Downward Movement As ExpectedNZDJPY: The Price Started The Downward Movement As Expected
NZDJPY is moving as expected, dropping nearly 90 pips since our last analysis.
The price recently broke below a bearish triangle pattern, and after a brief pullback, I expect it to continue downward.
However, the Bank of Japan’s upcoming meeting with the U.S. could also play a key role in shaping the market.
Let’s see how the charts unfold!
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.