US100 - Riding the Ascending Channel Towards $22800NASDAQ is showing a very clear and well-respected ascending channel, with price moving steadily within its bounds. Each pullback has been relatively shallow, and buyers continue to step in near the midline or lower boundary of the channel. This is classic trending behavior, with bullish structure intact and momentum favoring continuation higher.
Break and Flip of Resistance into Support
A key resistance level has just been broken, and more importantly, it has now flipped into support. Price retested this zone cleanly after the breakout, confirming the shift in order flow and adding confidence to the current leg up. This kind of structure shift is significant, especially when paired with a strong trending environment like this one.
Daily Resistance Ahead
Looking ahead, there’s a major daily resistance level just above. This area has acted as a reaction zone in the past and will likely bring some short-term volatility or hesitation. However, in the context of the current trend, that resistance could be used as fuel for the next breakout. If price manages to pierce through it with strength and hold above, it would open the path for a move toward the upper boundary of the channel.
Plan and Expectation
The ideal scenario now is simple: I want to see a clean break above the daily resistance, followed by a retest and confirmation of support. That would set up a strong continuation move targeting the top of the channel. If the resistance holds, I’ll wait for signs of weakness or range formation, but as long as we remain inside this rising structure, the bias remains bullish.
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NAS100USD trade ideas
US100 – Eyes on $22,040 as bulls take chargeIntroduction
The US100 is currently showing signs of a bullish breakout, moving above the boundaries of a previously established parallel channel. It is now approaching an important area of imbalance, known as a Fair Value Gap (FVG), on the 4-hour chart. If the index manages to break through this zone, there is a strong potential for continued upward momentum. Let’s take a closer look at the technical setup and what might come next.
Parallel Channel
For some time, the US100 had been trading within a downward-sloping parallel channel, consistently making lower highs and lower lows. However, today's price action has changed that narrative. The index has broken out of the channel to the upside and is currently pushing towards new short-term highs, which could mark the beginning of a bullish trend reversal.
4-Hour Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The current focus is on an open 4-hour FVG that ranges from approximately 21,840 to 21,870. This zone could serve as a significant resistance level, potentially rejecting further upward movement. However, if the US100 breaks decisively above this range, it could open the door for a rapid push toward previous highs. Such a move would signal strong bullish momentum and confirm the breakout as legitimate.
Possibility of a False Breakout
There is always the risk that this breakout could turn out to be a false move. If the US100 fails to hold above the 4-hour FVG and reverses back below the channel breakout point, it could indicate a bull trap. In that case, the index may resume its downward trend. Still, based on the current momentum and market structure, this scenario seems less likely at the moment.
Upside Target
If the breakout above the FVG is successful, the next significant target lies at the recent highs near 22,040. This level is expected to act as strong resistance. Should the US100 manage to break through it, we could see a test of the all-time high in the near future. However, it’s important to approach the market with patience and let each level confirm itself before expecting further upside.
Conclusion
While the US100 has successfully broken out of its parallel channel, it is now facing a key test at the 4-hour FVG. A clean break above this zone would likely shift market sentiment to bullish and set the stage for a move toward 22,040 and potentially beyond. Until then, traders should watch closely for confirmation and be mindful of the possibility of a pullback.
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The "True Close" Institutions Don't Talk About — But Trade On█ My Story from the Inside
I worked at a hedge fund in Europe, where I served as a Risk Advisor. One thing I never expected before joining the institutional side of the market was this:
They didn’t treat the current day’s close as the "true" close of the market.
Instead, they looked at the first hour of the next day — once all pending flows had settled, rebalancing was done, and execution dust had cleared — that was the true close in their eyes.
Here’s why that changed everything I knew about trading:
█ Institutional Reality vs Retail Fantasy
⚪ Retail traders are taught:
“The daily close is the most important price of the day.” But institutions operate under constraints that most retail traders are never exposed to:
Orders too large to fill before the bell
Internal compliance and execution delays
Batch algorithms and VWAP/TWAP systems that extend into the next session
So while the market might close on paper at 17:30 CET, the real trading — the stuff that matters to funds — might not wrap up until 09:30 or 10:00 the next morning.
Although the official “close” prints here, institutional volume ends quickly. It drops off sharply, almost immediately. Once the books are closed and final prints are done, big players exit — and what's left is thin, passive flow or noise.
The first hour of the New York session reveals structured flows, not random volatility. This is where institutions finalize yesterday’s unfinished business, which is why many consider this the “true” close.
And that’s the price risk managers, portfolio managers, and execution teams internally treat as the reference point.
█ Example: The Rebalance Spillover
Let’s say a fund needs to offload €100 million worth of tech stocks before month-end. They start into the close, but liquidity is thin. Slippage mounts. They pause execution. Next morning, their algo resumes — quietly but aggressively — in the first 30 minutes of trade.
You see a sharp spike. Then a reversal. Then another surge.
That’s not noise. That’s structure. It’s the result of unfinished business from yesterday.
█ Why the First Hour is a War Zone
You’ve probably seen it:
Prices whip back and forth at the open
Yesterday’s key levels are revisited, sometimes violently
Big moves happen without any overnight news
Here’s what’s happening under the hood:
Rebalancing spillovers from the day before
Late-position adjustments from inflows/outflows
Risk parity or vol-targeting models triggering trades based on overnight data
The market’s not reacting to fresh news — it’s completing its old to-do list.
█ What the Research Really Says About Morning Volatility
The idea that "the true close happens the next morning" isn’t just insider intuition — it’s backed by market microstructure research that highlights how institutional behaviors disrupt the clean narrative of the official close.
Here’s what the literature reveals:
█ Heston, Korajczyk & Sadka (2010)
Their study on intraday return patterns shows that returns continue at predictable 30-minute intervals, especially around the open.
The key driver? Institutional order flow imbalances.
When big funds can’t complete trades at the close, they spill into the next session, creating mechanical, non-informational momentum during the first hour. These delayed executions are visible as persistent price drifts after the open, not random volatility.
█ Wei Li & Steven Wang (SSRN 2010)
This paper dives into the asymmetric impact of institutional trades. It shows that when institutions are forced to adjust positions — often due to risk limits, inflows/outflows, or model-based triggers — the market reacts most violently in the early hours of the day.
When funds lag behind the clock, the next morning becomes a catch-up window, and price volatility spikes accordingly.
█ Lars Nordén (Doctoral Thesis, Swedish Stock Exchange)
In his microstructure research, Nordén found that the variance of returns is highest in the early part of the session, not at the close. This is especially true on days following macro events or at the end/start of reporting periods.
The data implies that institutions “price in” what they couldn’t execute the day before, making the next morning more informative than the actual close.
█ Bottom Line from the Research:
The first hour isn’t wild because it’s full of emotion.
It’s wild because it’s full of unfinished business.
These studies reinforce that price discovery is a rolling process, and for institutional flows, the official close is just a checkpoint, not a final destination.
█ How to Use This as a Trader
⚪ Don't assume the official close is final
Treat it as a temporary bookmark. Watch what happens in the first hour of the next day — that’s when intentions are revealed.
⚪ Volume in the first 30–60 minutes matters
It’s not noise — it’s flow completion. Often non-price-sensitive. Often mechanical.
⚪ Design strategies around “true close” logic
Test fade setups after the first hour’s range is established. That’s often the real “settled” level.
⚪ Use the first-hour VWAP or midpoint as a reference
Institutions may anchor to that — not the official close — for mean reversion or risk metrics.
█ Final Thought
The first hour is not the start of something new.
It’s the conclusion of yesterday’s market.
And unless you understand how institutions truly close their books — and how long that takes — you’ll always be a step behind.
So next time you see chaos at the open, stop calling it random.
👉 It’s just the market putting yesterday to bed — late.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
US100 - Trading within a bearish parallel channel!Introduction
The US100 is currently trading within a well-defined parallel channel to the downside, consistently finding support along the lower trendline and facing resistance near the upper boundary. This structure has led to a clear pattern of lower lows and lower highs on the 1H timeframe. Most recently, price action broke market structure, and we now anticipate a reaction near a high-confluence resistance area.
Parallel Channel
A distinct parallel channel has been developing on the US100 over the past several days on the 1H timeframe. During last night's move, the price touched the lower boundary of the channel and has been trending upward since. After breaking above the midline at $21,640, momentum suggests a potential continuation toward the upper boundary of the channel around $21,830.
FVG
During the most recent downward move, the US100 created a significant 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG), stretching from $21,775 to $21,840. This zone represents a key imbalance that could generate a strong reaction to the downside if price revisits it.
Conclusion
Given the break in structure on the 1H timeframe, short-term upward moves are likely to face resistance. The confluence between the upper boundary of the parallel channel and the 1H FVG creates a high-probability area for price rejection, making it a critical level to watch for potential downside pressure.
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Missiles in the Middle East, Headwinds on Nasdaq: NAS100 onHey There;
The trend line on the NAS100 has been broken to the downside. My target level after this breakout is 21,299.47. If the price moves towards this level, I think it will reach my target in line with fundamental analysis due to the broken trend line and Iran-Israel war tensions.
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Nasdaq at Supply Zone – Rejection or Breakout? (READ THE CAPTIONBy examining the #Nasdaq chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is still trading within the supply zone around 21,850. We are still waiting for a strong rejection from this level, which could lead to a short-term price correction in this index.
The potential downside targets are:
21,000, 20,700, 20,200, and 19,150.
The key supply range lies between 21,400 and 22,200.
Additionally, there is a possibility of a liquidity grab or stop-hunt above 22,200 before any real drop begins.
This analysis will be considered invalid if price closes above 22,400 in the next three weeks.
On the fundamental side, there are several macro factors to watch:
Interest Rate Expectations:
Although inflation in the U.S. has cooled compared to last year, the Fed remains cautious. If upcoming CPI or PPI prints show unexpected resilience, the likelihood of rate cuts this year could diminish, pressuring tech-heavy indices like Nasdaq.
Tech Sector Valuations:
Valuations in major tech names — such as NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft — have reached historically high multiples. This makes Nasdaq particularly vulnerable to correction, especially if earnings disappoint or growth expectations soften.
Geopolitical Risks:
Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China over trade and technology, as well as potential instability in the Middle East, could contribute to a risk-off sentiment — further supporting the case for a short-term pullback.
Earnings Season Ahead:
Q2 earnings season is around the corner. Any signs of slowing revenue growth or reduced forward guidance from major tech firms could act as a catalyst for the expected correction.
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NASDAQ Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring NAS100 for a selling opportunity around 21,700 zone, NASDAQ was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 21,700 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
Nasdaq must hold its line, otherwise more downsideMarkets are on edge. The Nasdaq is hovering just above its 200-day moving average and with so much angst in the market, this line must hold. If it breaks, risk sentiment could unravel quickly, and we could see a retest of recent 2025 lows.
The trigger isn’t hard to find. Rising tensions in the Middle East are putting upward pressure on oil and energy. A sustained rally in crude would reignite inflation fears just as central banks begin easing. Powell was supposed to start cutting, but wars are always complicated.
Higher energy costs hit consumers, slow growth and force policymakers to rethink their next moves. That’s a headwind for tech and growth names.
Equities have enjoyed a solid run this year, pricing in a soft landing. But that assumption now feels shaky. Particularly for risky assets like the Nasdaq. The Dow might do better relative. The market isn’t just worried about geopolitics. It’s digesting the reality that inflation remains sticky. Bond yields are rising. Rate cuts are being pushed back. And oil isn’t helping.
If the Nasdaq holds its 200-day line, the bulls stay in control. But a break below will shift the momentum. That’s why this week matters.
We’re watching a simple but powerful signal. Stay above 20,500 and markets can stabilise. Break below, and volatility returns.
This trade is only for the brave. The story is shifting. Stay alert.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
NAS100 - Priming to SHORTDear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
Rising Wedge - Bullish Exhaustion Pattern
"SHORT" Targets:
1] 20740.00
2] 20200.00
Fundamentally:
If I was an institutional Invester and/or hedge fund manager with
100's of millions in US stocks. Considering the geopolitical tensions at the moment.
I will move the largest percentage of my portfolio to safe
haven $-bonds and/or commodities like GOLD.
But that's just me...
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
NASDAQ 2 Expected Scenarios Very Clear , Which One You Prefer ?Here is my opinion on Nasdaq on 4H T.F , The price still below my res so we can sell it if the price touch the res level again , and if we have a daily closure above my res then we can buy it with retest for the broken res , so it`s very easy if we still below the res we can sell and if we going up it we can buy it . but we need a daily closure above first .
NASDAQ Close to the 1st 1D Golden Cross in 2 years!Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the December 2022 Low and is currently extending the gains of the latest Bullish Leg.
At the same time it is about to form the first 1D Golden Cross in more than 2 years (since March 08 2023). The last two major Bullish Legs of this pattern, before the previous one was interrupted by the Trade War, were pretty symmetrical, peaking at +49.21% and +47.47% respectively.
If the current one follows the +47.47% 'minimum', we should be expecting Nasdaq to hit 24000 by late Q3.
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USNAS100 -Risk-Off Sentiment Keeps USNAS100 in Bearish TerritoryUSNAS100 – Bearish Momentum Holds as Traders Watch Geopolitical Risks and Fed Signals
The NASDAQ (USNAS100) remains under pressure as market sentiment stays cautious amid ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainty ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve outlook. While the geopolitical escalation has not triggered panic, it continues to weigh on risk appetite—particularly in tech-heavy indices.
Technical Outlook:
The price currently appears to be heading toward 21635. A 1H close below this level is expected to confirm further downside toward 21470.
A break below the key support zone could open the door to the next bearish leg targeting 21065.
To shift the structure to bullish, the price would need a confirmed 4H candle close above the 21790–21850 resistance zone.
Key Levels:
• Support: 21635, 21470, 21375
• Resistance: 21930, 22090, 22200
Hanzo / Nas100 15 Min ( Accurate Tactical Bullish Break Out )🔥 Nas100 – 15 Min Scalping Analysis
⚡️ Objective: Precision Breakout Execution
Time Frame: 15-Minute Warfare
Entry Mode: Only after verified breakout — no emotion, no gamble.
👌Bullish After Break : 21920 / Break out done
Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move.
☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual-Direction Entry Intel
➕ Zone Activated: Strategic liquidity layer detected — mapped through refined supply/demand mechanics. Volatility now rising. This isn’t noise — this is bait for the untrained. We're not them.
NAS100 Potential ReversalHi there,
The NAS100 is slightly bullish and fairly stagnant. It is consolidating between two key levels (orange lines). A break below the price might fall into deeper demand zones.
Short Notes
- **Elliott Wave**: 5-wave structure appears complete at resistance (22,137.8), signalling a possible reversal.
- **Liquidity Zones**: Price is at/near a major liquidity zone, increasing reversal risk.
- **Break High**: There's a potential for a false breakout above wave 5 before dropping.
- **Support Levels**: The 21,800.6 (previous day high) and 21,146.2 (previous day low) for first support.
- **Demand Zones**: Strong demand below 21,146.2, with deeper support near 20,000 and 18,800.
- **Overview: A possible bearish move ahead from current highs, targeting lower demand zones.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice
USTECUSTEC price is now near the resistance zone 21916-22226. If the price cannot break through the 22226 level, it is expected that the price will drop. Consider selling the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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QQQ - NASDAQ Has Never Been This ExpensiveQQQ relative to the money supply reveals that markets have never been this expensive in history. Despite the significant amount of money pumped in during the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy has not kept pace with all the zeros added to Gov debt.
If we can't lower deficits now at max employment, when will we?
Tulips!
Caution is in order despite what "experts" may tell you.
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