RAY Outlook: Is a -60% Drop the Reset We Need?RAY marked its bottom in December 2022 at just $0.133, entering a prolonged accumulation phase that lasted nearly a year. Then, in late 2023, it broke out into an explosive bull run, skyrocketing +6421% over 756 days and peaking at an impressive $8.70.
This run completed a full five-wave Elliott Wave structure. After topping out, RAY dropped -84% down to $1.388 — likely marking the Wave A correction. A strong relief rally followed into the $4 region before facing rejection at the yearly VWAP, possibly completing Wave B. Now, all signs point toward us being in the final Wave C of the larger corrective structure.
So, where could Wave C bottom out?
🔍 Fibonacci Confluence Zones (Log Scale)
Let’s assess the key levels with log-scaled Fibonacci tools:
🔹 Fib Retracement (from $0.133 low to $8.7 high):
The 0.618 fib retracement lies at $0.658
🔹 Trend-Based Fib Extension (Wave A → B projection for Wave C):
1.0 TBFE sits at $0.617
✅ These two levels align nearly perfectly, giving us a strong confluence zone between $0.62 and $0.66
Additional Confluences
Anchored VWAP Bands:
The 0.618 VWAP band multiplier also aligns with this $0.6 zone
Liquidity Perspective:
This level would wipe out long positions built over the past 550 days — clearing and potentially resetting the market
🚨 Fair Value Trend Model (FV Trend Model):
According to my Fair Value Trend Model indicator, the fair value for RAY currently sits around $0.78 — right in line with the broader confluence zone. This model uses log-log regression to estimate Bitcoin’s and other assets’ fair-value over time.
👉 Feel free to use the indicator
Just head over to my profile, click on the “Scripts” tab, and you can add the Fair Value Trend Model to your charts to experiment with it yourself.
Together, these technical elements form a compelling high-probability zone for long setups around $0.6–$0.8.
💡 Educational Insight — Why 0.618 is a Critical Fib Level
In Elliott Wave theory and harmonic trading, the 0.618 retracement is known as the "Golden Ratio" — often serving as a magnet for price during corrections. When paired with a 1.0 trend-based fib extension, it can mark exhaustion zones where Wave C concludes.
🔭 Summary: What’s Next for RAY?
Potential bottom zone: $0.61–$0.78
Watch for reversal signals like bullish candlestick patterns, volume spikes, or divergences
A drop to this zone would represent a -60% drawdown from current levels
Remember: High-probability setups don’t come every day — patience is your edge
Set alerts. Stay prepared.
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