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GDZ2025 trade ideas

Gold Price Analysis (GC1! or XAU/USD): Challenges and OutlookSince reaching a historic high of $3,509 on April 22, 2025, gold has struggled to maintain its upward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the price experienced a sharp rejection spike after touching that peak, prompting a sideways range as the market seeks a clearer direction. From a technical perspective, a stronger US dollar typically puts downward pressure on gold, making it a more expensive investment for holders. However, examining the chart of GC1! * alongside the DXY shows that even during periods of a robust dollar, gold has continued to rise. Additionally, recent years have seen seasonality effects on gold largely ignored, with the yellow metal persistently climbing. The underlying reasons are multifaceted, but a key factor is gold’s status as a safe-haven asset—investors prefer to hold gold during times of uncertainty and economic turmoil. * GOLD and DXY correlation Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the consensus is that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with unchanged rates. From both fundamental and technical viewpoints, recent data suggest a cautious outlook. Notably, non-commercial traders added nearly 40,000 long contracts last week, indicating bullish sentiment. Conversely, retail traders have reduced their positions, which could signal a potential shift in market dynamics. The key question remains: where might be a strategic entry point if gold resumes its upward trend? In the chart, I’ve highlighted two daily demand zones and a strong weekly demand area. There’s a possibility that the price may not revisit the weekly demand zone to accommodate new longs, instead triggering entry signals from one of the daily demand zones. I recommend adding these zones to your watchlist as potential entry points. What are your thoughts? I look forward to your insights! ✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
8
Gold Daily Bias – Bulls Have the Ball, But Watch the TrapGold Daily Chart – August Outlook Bias is still bullish for August. Price is holding well above the big 3M FVG ($2,900–$3,100). Strong bounce from Weekly Low ($3,331) heading toward Weekly High ($3,416). Above $3,416 we’ve got $3,451 (M-H) and ATH ($3,508) as liquidity targets . Seasonal tailwinds could help push us higher into Q4. Blind spots to watch: Still range-bound between $3,330–$3,450 for months — no clean break yet. Unfilled FVG near $3,210 could be a draw if we reject from resistance. August liquidity is thin — spikes can reverse fast. Triple-top risk if we reject near $3,450 again. Game plan: Bullish if we get a daily close above $3,416 (confirmation) and ideally above $3,451 to aim for ATH. If breakout fails, I’ll target range play back toward $3,290–$3,210. Bias = bullish, but I’m staying nimble.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by DWoodz
Gold’s on a Roller Coaster — and We’re Riding It Down🎢 Gold’s on a Roller Coaster — and We’re Riding It Down 🎢 Gold just snapped up like it saw Trump tweet “TARIFFS ARE BACK” — but the move smells like a knee-jerk algo pump, not real conviction. We just rejected right into a thin-volume imbalance zone and tagged the underside of a long-standing trendline. 📉 Short Setup Locked In: 💥 Entry: 3405 🛑 Stop: 3415 🎯 Target: 3353 💰 R:R ≈ 5:1 🔍 Why I'm In This Trade: That rip? Total headline panic, not structural strength. Low volume shelf above, with a massive POC magnet below at 3353. We tapped the Developing VAH (3414) and got rejected — classic trap setup. SQZMOM showing the energy is already fizzling. Green flash, no follow-through. 🧠 The Narrative: Gold’s trying to price in volatility from every angle — Trump talk, tariffs, macro chaos — but under the hood, this pop looks unsustainable. If this is just a liquidity grab, we could see a flush back into the meat of value fast. Grab your helmets — this roller coaster might just be heading downhill 🎢📉
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
Gold – Eyeing the H4 FVG Before the Next Bull RunPrice has been consolidating within the current Asian range after running last week’s high and today’s daily high. The move into D-H lacked strong momentum, and with a large unfilled H4 Fair Value Gap (3,350–3,372) below, I’m anticipating a retracement to rebalance liquidity before resuming the bullish trend. Key Notes: D-H (~3,436) acting as short-term resistance. Watching for a sweep of D-H to create excess on the DOM, then a potential breakdown toward the H4 FVG. Bearish path targets: 3,397 → 3,372 → 3,350. Bullish continuation requires a clean breakout and hold above D-H with volume. This scenario could set up a stronger bullish leg later in the week, especially if the retracement aligns with London or NY session volatility.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
GOLD: NEW WEEK TECHNICAL BIAS (MARKET OPEN)CONTEXT ▪︎ HTFs Bias: Bullish stance remains intact until a valid structural breach occurs. ▪︎ Monthly Context: Despite consistent upper wick rejections, price continues to close above prior monthly opens — suggesting bullish resilience. ▪︎ Weekly View: Current price action reflects a Value Compression Phase (VCP) within the premium zone of the active range, implying potential buildup for a bullish Impulse Drive. ▪︎ Daily Alignment: Daily price behavior mirrors the Weekly context, supporting a continuation thesis. Preferred Scenario: Leaning towards a Retrace Precision Entry (RPE) before the Ascend Sequence resumes. Watching: • Point A (shallow pullback) near B/C level, or • Point B (deep pullback) into the pending Rejection Zone (ARB). Invalidation Trigger: A structural breach below 3336, backed by bearish momentum and microstructure shift, targets first 3280, then levels below. Uncertainty Variable: Will price first sweep 3433.2 before retracing? Or will it retrace from market open? This remains unclear and demands a patient, reactive stance. 📌 Disclaimer: This is a strategic directional bias, not financial advice. Execute only with confirmation and proper risk management.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Olamitrades1
Gold - Short Setup Off Major Trendline Rejection📉 Gold - Short Setup Off Major Trendline Rejection Gold has broken down through the rising trendline and is now retesting it — the moment of truth! 🧐 🔻 Short Entry: 3,336 🎯 Target: 3,236 (Fib 1.0 + HVN gap fill) 🛑 Stop: 3,346 (Above trendline retest) ⚖️ Risk/Reward: ~1:10 📊 Bonus: High volume node above adds resistance. Bearish volume profile structure confirms the breakdown bias. Watching for volume to pick up on the move down. Let's see if GC bleeds into August. 🩸📆
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
GC1! – The Wedge Strikes BackGC1! – The Wedge Strikes Back 🚀 Gold futures (GC1!) just gave us a textbook rollover move. As the front-month rolled, price faked a wedge breakdown, only to rip back inside the structure once rollover completed. That failed breakout speaks volumes – and now the wedge is back in control. Rollover Trap → Back Inside the Wedge Rollover volatility flushed price below the wedge, pulling in shorts… but the move didn’t stick. Buyers stepped up and snapped price back inside, turning the wedge’s lower boundary into rock-solid support once again. The Long Game 🎯 With GC1! holding the wedge: Longs off wedge support are the play Resistance: 3,380 Target: 3,446 (upper wedge boundary) Stop-loss: 3,336 (below support) Risk/Reward: 🔥 10.69 RRR Volume Profile also shows heavy accumulation in the 3,336–3,380 zone – crack through 3,380, and we could see momentum accelerate quickly. Bottom Line This isn’t just another bounce – it’s a failed breakdown on rollover. Wedge traders are back in the driver’s seat, and the setup offers a crystal-clear invalidation point with serious upside potential.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
Gold completing a 4-month Bull Flag consolidation, 3800 next! We can see the classic bull flag consolidation pattern which has been going on ever since the stock market decided to go on a rager! Even with that going on, smart money continues to buy gold on the dips as you should too. Once Trump installs a phoney new BLS chief and moves to pressure the Fed by nominating a new governor after Kugler's departure the message will be clear: 1) the BLS and the Fed are no longer independent 2) the US dollar is going to tank 3) Gold is going to boom! Good luck and happy trading!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CryptoTaoist
Gold Setting the Trap: Fake Rally Before the Fall?Gold (GC) Futures are showing signs of a potential reversal after a surprise bullish NY session, likely sparked by headline sentiment (Trump-related news). While the impulse looked strong, we remain below the previous daily high, and structure may still favor a deeper move south. 🔍 Key Notes: Price is stalling near a high-volume node (~3436–3445). Possible liquidity sweep above NY highs before reversal. Watching for confirmation during Asian or London killzone. Bearish continuation becomes more likely if we break below NY session lows and hold. Bias: Bearish, targeting rebalancing of the H4 FVG if structure confirms. Sharing this to track how the algo reacts inside upcoming killzones. Open to thoughts, breakdowns, and alternate reads 👇
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by DWoodz
Gold Futures (GC1!) Long Setup – 0.5 Fib Bounce🟡 Gold Futures (GC1!) Long Setup – 0.5 Fib Bounce After nailing the long from the bottom and perfectly shorting the top, we’re stepping back in for another calculated move. 📉 Price pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, aligning perfectly with the upward trendline support and a key HVN on the Volume Profile. 📈 Entered long at 3,365 with a tight stop below 3,354 (0.3% risk), targeting the descending trendline near 3,444 for a clean 7.7R setup. 🧠 Context: Price reacted hard at resistance, but volume support and structure still lean bullish. Clear invalidation if we break trend and lose 3,350 support cluster. Let’s see if this bounce gets legs. 🚀
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JoshuaDanford
Gold Futures – Closing Longs and Flipping Short at Key Fib🔴 Gold Futures – Closing Longs and Flipping Short at Key Fib Confluence Instrument : Gold Futures – COMEX ( COMEX:GC1! ) Timeframe : 15-Minute New Position : Short Entry Zone : ~3442 Target : ~3362 Stop Loss : ~3458 Risk/Reward : Approx. 6.5+ Setup Type : Reversal from Overextension / Fib Resistance 💡 Trade Recap & Strategy Shift We’ve officially closed both our recent long entry and our larger swing long position, locking in substantial profit on this move off the 0.618 retracement. Now, we’re flipping short based on the following: Price reached the 0.146 Fib extension from the previous retracement leg, a level often overlooked but powerful when confluence lines up. Trendline resistance from the upper channel has been tagged. Momentum is showing early signs of stalling after a strong vertical push — textbook overextension. The rally into this level lacked divergence or structural buildup, increasing the chance of a snapback. 🛠️ Short Setup Details Entry: 3442 (after signs of exhaustion near Fib confluence) Target: 3362 (prior structure + 0.382 retracement) Stop Loss: 3458 (just above high / resistance zone) Risk/Reward: 6.5:1 — excellent profile for a countertrend play. 📌 Watch For A break below 3390 will be key confirmation of momentum shifting back down. Failure to hold 3442 on a retest will invalidate the short and re-open the door for a squeeze higher to 3476/3480. With trend exhaustion in sight and high confluence resistance overhead, we’re taking the opportunity to pivot short — fully aware of the volatility this region can bring.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by JoshuaDanford
2