SPX to 6600+ by Aug 5This leg up in SPX is not over yet. Target at upper bound of the channel around 6.6K+ by Aug 5.
SP500 trade ideas
Bullish continuation?S&P500 is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the swing high resistance.
Pivot: 6,334.93
1st Support: 6,292.36
1st Resistance: 6,420.86
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S&P Correction Window is official - VOLATILITY AHEADIt's that time of year where the pre-summer push wraps and the summer lull and potential
pause gets underway.
July 31 finished on a bit of a sour note with over 67% of stocks declining today and US indexes finishing RED despite the big gaps and bullish pops on MSFT and META post earnings.f
SPX Key Levels
-watch the 21 day moving average
-watch the 50 day moving average
-more dynamic support in the 100/144/200 moving average cluster
I'll be taking bites at the 5/10/15% correction levels with options and looking for this dip
to be bought by retail and institutions.
Will August 1 US Tariff Deadline matter? After Japan and Eurozone came in and said a deal is being done, I was thinking this would be a dud. BUT, Dr. Copper says "maybe" on the global
tariff deadline with the largest single day move in history (bearish). Being the perfect time of year for a correction (the other being Feb-Apr), and the technicals looking so clean for an
orderly pullback, VIX may float higher and make things more interesting in the next 30-60 days.
Strategies matter, I'll be trading risk defined, but there are great opportunities ahead. A pullback is sure better than literally watching all-time highs every single day.
Thanks for watching!!!
US 500 – Potentially A Pivotal Week Ahead The US 500 index registered a new record closing high on Friday at 6396 continuing a bullish trend that has yet to show many signs of faltering. The Monday open has seen this move extend as traders digest the positive news flow from the weekend that a US/EU trade deal has been agreed after President Trump and EU Commission head Ursula Von der Leyen, met in Scotland on Sunday. This has seen the US 500 index rally another 0.4% to a new high of 6429 (0730 BST).
However, the week ahead could be a pivotal one for the direction of US stock indices over the remainder of the summer, and in this regard, it is perhaps surprising that market volatility measures, such as the VIX (fear Index), are back to their lowest levels since late March, indicating limited trader concern for what lies ahead. Although, things can change very quickly.
In many ways the week ahead is one that has it all, including a new round of US/China trade talks which start today, a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision, key tech earnings, tier 1 US data releases and on-going trade/tariff discussions. More than enough to ensure there is the potential for US 500 price action to become increasingly volatile as the week progresses.
Looking forward, Wednesday could be a very busy day, with the Fed Interest Rate Decision released at 1900 BST and quickly followed at 1930 BST by the press conference led by Chairman Powell, who has been under intense political pressure in the last 10 days. While the Fed are expected to keep rates unchanged, traders may be interested to see which policymakers were keen to vote for a cut, as well as whether Chairman Powell’s comments indicate a September rate reduction may be more likely than currently anticipated.
Then, later Wednesday evening Microsoft, Qualcomm and Meta release their earnings updates after the close, with Amazon and Apple’s results due after the market close on Thursday. These releases could be crucial for sentiment towards the US 500, with particular focus being paid to what these companies say about future revenue and tariff issues, as well as the specific performance of AI and cloud services.
This only takes us to the middle of the week, which is where the tier 1 US economic data releases take over, with the PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, due on Thursday at 1330 BST, and then the all-important Non-farm Payrolls update on the current health of the US labour market released on Friday at 1330 BST. US 500 index traders may well be sensitive to the outcome of both of these prints.
That’s still not all. Friday’s US employment update coincides with President Trump’s tariff deadline which could add to US 500 volatility into the weekend.
Wow, I did say it’s a week that has it all!
Technical Update: New All-Time Highs Posted Again
It looks as if the latest US 500 index activity is maintaining the current positive trending themes after another all-time high was posted this morning at 6429. This could skew risks towards the further development of the pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows that has materialised since the April 7th downside extreme at 4799 was seen.
However, it must be remembered, these moves do not guarantee this price activity will continue, so traders may find it useful to assess the possible support and resistance levels that could influence price activity moving forward across what is set to be a very busy week of events.
Possible Support Levels:
If any US 500 price weakness does materialise across the week ahead with the potential to develop into a more extended phase of declines, a support level that traders may consider worth monitoring could be 6289.
6289 is equal to the current level of the rising Bollinger mid-average. Closing breaks below 6289 might suggest a more extended phase of weakness is possible, opening the potential for moves back to 6234, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, possibly further if this level in turn gives way.
Possible Resistance Levels:
Having been capped by the 6429 all-time high this morning, sellers may continue to be found at this level, so this might prove to be the first potential resistance if fresh attempts at price strength develop over the coming week.
It may be helpful for traders to watch how this 6429 level is defended on a closing basis, as successful closing breaks might suggest a further extension of the uptrend pattern currently evident in price activity.
Such closing breaks higher may well suggest price strength towards 6671, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level of the February 19th to April 7th sell-off.
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History does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhymeIt’s widely accepted that Mark Twain once said (or wrote) that “history does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhyme”.
Historical Parallels to a Super Cycle Wave (I) Top in U.S. Equities
The road to a major market top is often paved with echoing patterns from the past, and today's landscape bears an uncanny resemblance to pivotal historical events that preceded economic upheaval.
The 1918 Spanish Flu—though less economically damaging in the U.S. than elsewhere, still triggered a 1.5% drop in GDP and a 2.1% decline in consumer spending. The resulting economic weakness, paired with rising inflation, eroded real returns on equities and short-term government bonds for years.
Then came the 1929 stock market crash, the spark that ignited the Great Depression. Driven by a perfect storm of extreme speculation, sky-high valuations, and a regulatory vacuum, the collapse revealed the systemic fragility beneath the euphoria.
Adding fuel to the fire, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 slammed the brakes on global trade. By sharply raising tariffs on imports, it invited swift retaliatory measures from abroad. The result: a devastating plunge in both U.S. exports and imports, deepening the economic crisis and worsening unemployment. Smoot-Hawley has since become a textbook example of how protectionist policy can magnify economic damage.
Modern Echoes: A Cycle Repeating?
Fast forward to the present and we see unsettling similarities.
The Covid-19 pandemic serves as a modern analog to the 1918 flu, disrupting global supply chains and triggering a steep drop in GDP and consumer spending. Unlike the post-WWI period, however, inflation didn’t precede the crisis, it exploded afterward, fueled by pent-up demand and fiscal stimulus, giving rise to persistent “sticky” inflation....and NOT TRANSITORY.
In a similar inversion of sequence, the Trump-era tariffs—modern-day echoes of Smoot-Hawley, were enacted before any major equity downturn, not after. Still, their long-term impact on global trade and supply chain reliability remains a pressure point for the economy.
Most critically, speculation and valuation excess are again center stage. Just as the roaring ’20s were characterized by euphoric risk-taking, today’s U.S. equity market is trading at record-high P/E ratios, despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty and deteriorating breadth.
These historical and contemporary markers suggest we may be approaching the apex of a Super Cycle Wave (III), a turning point that, like its predecessors, may only be fully recognized in hindsight.
It is my contention, that history is currently rhyming.
Best to all,
Chris
Is This the Start of a Market Drop?So, is the drop beginning? It kind of looks that way, but there’s still no solid setup for entering a short position — and there hasn’t been so far.
The trend is still upward for now, and this current pullback might just be temporary.
What I like about the short idea is that August is traditionally a weak month for stocks .
Could this be the start of a big correction on the market? Yes, it’s possible.
It’s just a pity there’s no clean setup for a short. I’d like to enter, but I’d prefer to see a bit more confirmation on the chart itself.
In general, trading the index off of chart setups isn’t easy — perfect entries are rare. That’s exactly the case now. I’m watching and wondering how and when to catch the downside. Maybe I’ll end up sitting through the entire drop without a position :)
Overall, I’m in favor of the short — but for now, I just don’t see a clear entry point.
S&P's "hugely overbought" towards 6375!1). Position Volume dropping! 2). Big institutions (Banks & Insurance) have backed off on higher Risk positions! 3). Huge resistance at .728 fib & trend! 4). Trump tariff talk is likely adding to a fall as well! 5). We're looking for a "SELL" trade @ 6375, since buying is too risky at the moment...Good Luck!
SPX500 Will Go UP!
HI,Traders !
#SPX500 made a retest
Of the horizontal support
Level of 6277.78 and we
Are already seeing a
Bullish rebound so we are
Locally bullish biased and
We will be expecting a
Further bullish move up !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trends, colored levels,
and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
SPX500 Hits New Highs but Fed Caution Limits MomentumSPX500 Overview
Market Context:
The Fed's reluctance to commit to a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting has forced markets to reassess their outlook. This hesitation pushed Treasury yields and the US dollar higher in late trading, weighing on equities.
As it stands, the probability of a rate cut appears to be pushed further out on the timeline, introducing short-term headwinds for risk assets.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 printed a new all-time high and maintains bullish momentum after stabilizing above the previous ATH at 6427. As long as the price holds above this level, the bullish continuation toward 6454 remains likely, with a further extension to 6480 possible.
A bearish correction would only be confirmed by a break below 6415.
Resistance Levels: 6454, 6480
Support Levels: 6415, 6389
SPX Elliot Wave Count, Wykoff DistributionBased off the HTF elliot wave count aligning and in confluence with a HTF Wykoff distribution. With the top coming in between 6600-7000ish around September 2025 till January 2026. Further confluence with trendline, fibonnacci time and fibonnaci trend and extension.
Unlocking the Power of ORB (Opening Range Breakout)Unlocking the Power of ORB (Opening Range Breakout): A Proven Strategy for Intraday Traders
In the fast-paced world of intraday trading, simplicity and structure can often outperform complexity. One such time-tested strategy is the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) — a method favored by both discretionary and system traders for its clarity and adaptability.
📌 What is ORB (Opening Range Breakout)?
ORB refers to the price range (high and low) formed during the first few minutes (typically 5, 15, or 30) after the market opens. Traders look for a breakout above or below this range, anticipating strong momentum in that direction.
🧠 Why ORB Works
Volume Surge: The opening minutes see high institutional activity, creating genuine demand/supply signals.
Market Psychology: ORB captures trader sentiment as news digests overnight and is priced in at the open.
Defined Risk: The high/low of the range becomes a natural stop-loss area, allowing clean setups.
✅ Entry and Exit Rules for the ORB Strategy
Having a consistent framework helps you avoid emotional decisions. Here’s how you can structure your trades using ORB:
🔹 Entry Criteria:
Timeframe: Define your ORB window — e.g., first 15-minute candle.
Bullish Breakout Entry:
Enter long when price closes above the ORB high with volume confirmation.
Bearish Breakdown Entry:
Enter short when price closes below the ORB low with volume confirmation.
⚠️ Avoid entering on the first breakout candle. Wait for a close and retest, or a strong momentum candle for higher confidence.
🔹 Stop-Loss Placement:
For Long Trades: Place SL just below ORB low
For Short Trades: Place SL just above ORB high
🔹 Target/Exit Options:
Fixed RR Target: Aim for 1.5–2x your risk as initial target.
Mid/Outer Bands: Use indicator-drawn breakout bands (like those in LuxAlgo script) as profit zones.
Time-based Exit: Close position by end of session if price stalls or consolidates.
Trailing Exit: Trail your stop behind higher lows (long) or lower highs (short) after breakout.
📊 ORB in Action
You can explore this ready-to-use TradingView indicator to visualize ORB levels in real-time:
🔍 Indicator: Opening Range with Breakouts & Targets (by @LuxAlgo) Thanks to @LuxAlgo team to make this indicator available.
🛠️ Highlights:
Automatically marks the opening range
Plots breakout zones and targets
Ideal for intraday strategies
Works across indices, forex, and crypto
📓 Integrating ORB into Your Trading Journal App
If you're journaling ORB trades, consider logging:
✅ Symbol & timeframe
✅ ORB range (high/low)
✅ Breakout direction (long/short)
✅ Entry time & price
✅ Exit reason (target hit, SL hit, time-based exit)
✅ Notes: market sentiment, news drivers, volume confirmation
Over time, this data will help you:
🔍 Identify which assets respect ORB best
📈 Tune your RR ratio and stop placements
🧠 Reduce decision fatigue by automating setups
🧪 Want to Automate It?
Our trading journal app is ready with 🧠 AI-based journaling for feedback and refinement
🎯 Final Thoughts
ORB is a classic — not because it’s flashy, but because it offers structure, risk control, and repeatability. Whether you're a price action purist or using smart indicators, ORB can provide a disciplined edge — especially when integrated into a journaling and feedback loop.
📌 Start small. Track results. Tune your edge.
SPX500 - Bearish Crab Pattern- Price completed a perfect Crab Pattern, yet we all got to August 1st (second) liberation day
- If bad mood continues, we can expect a correction:
A. (positive) down to 6150-6000
B. (negative) down to 5800
Just my humble opinion
Risk-Off SignalsRisk-Off: 1 August with 2 indicators:
Voil. Momentum and Bear Market Risk Indicators (BMRI)
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & TargetsThis is how last night’s members chart played out and it was amazing. We opened at the top of the implied move and all of the spreads at the top paid as we dropped back to the 30in 200MA
The spreads I took at 6420/6435 but every spread shown here would have done well.
S&P 500 ETF & Index Hit Resistance – A Technical Warning Shot 📉⚠️ S&P 500 ETF & Index Hit Resistance – A Technical Warning Shot 🔍🧠
Following up on the video I just posted , I had to share this updated chart of the VOO ETF (Vanguard S&P 500) and US500 Index , now that both are testing key resistance levels.
On the left: AMEX:VOO has reached the very top of a multi-year ascending channel—a zone that has historically triggered sharp corrections. The level at 590.85 marks a major resistance zone.
On the right: The US500 Index is showing a similar technical overextension, trading just under 6,450, with 5,928.25 as the nearest support below.
🎯 Technicals at play:
VOO could retrace toward 526.17 and potentially 465.72, both of which are solid technical supports within this channel.
This setup doesn't mean panic—but it does argue for caution, especially after such an extended run.
🧠 And yes, the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) continues to point toward an overheated market . While it's not a timing tool, it adds macro weight to the technical signals.
In the video, I also touched on:
Taking profits on NASDAQ:NVDA after a near-perfect technical rejection at target.
Reviewing Rolls Royce nearing upper channel resistance.
Gold and Silver at inflection points—likely to be impacted if equities begin to unwind.
Rotational potential into Bitcoin and Ethereum, which may benefit from macro shifts.
This is how I trade: respect structure, stay proactive, and prepare before the move—not after. Let me know how you’re positioning or if you’re sitting on hands waiting for a dip.
One Love,
The FX PROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
SPX defying gravity!It's a BULL market until it's not! Some how some way the markets will set new ATHs? I don't know how or why every macro economic indicator is yelling recession or worse but the chart tells me a different story. Bulls ball.....
Overbought alert? The S&P500 is nearing weekly and monthly bullish channel resistance. Price has remained within this channel since 2020.
PEPPERSTONE:US500 VANTAGE:SP500
S&P500 (CASH500) SHORT - Double top H6Risk/reward = 3.7
Entry price = 6432.6
Stop loss price = 6 454.1
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 6367.7
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 6332.6
Still need confirmation from some variables before entering the trade
SPY back in the trendlineFrom a technical stand point, the expectation was that the trend line will be respected and sellers will force price to close back inside.
Today's daily close can ignite further downward movement which can align with August seasonality that typically sees Indices pull back within this period.
Target still remains 6108 at previous ATH
Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher than ever. Crash incoming??The stock market is now more expensive than ever.
Some people are calling the top, saying that the market is overbought and too high.
There are indicators that show that the market is overheated, but NO ONE KNOWS whether it's going to crash next week or continue running up for months.
Since April, Nasdaq has gained 40%, which is a lot. Congrats if you bought some QLD and TQQQ back in April when I posted about it.
SP:SPX : All-time high. NASDAQ:NDX : All-time high. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD : All-time high. TVC:GOLD : All-time high HOME PRICES ( ECONOMICS:USSFHP ): All-time high. Sounds a bit like a bubble.
The S&P 500’s market cap now equals 28x real disposable personal income — a record.
The stock market Shiller PE ratio is at its highest in 20 years.
Nasdaq companies, especially the MAG7, are strongly outperforming small-cap companies. The last time this happened at this speed, we had the dot-com crash.
The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the index.
So, saying this, is the market going to crash?
I don't know, but I know that it's more likely to crash now than it was 3 months ago. It might continue running higher, too, as the FED is expected to cut rates. Really, no one knows. 😊
Here's what I'm doing:
I trimmed down some overpriced stocks from my portfolio: Lemonade, Coupang, Shopify, and Crowdstrike
I trimmed down some of my crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum
I stopped DCA'ing into leveraged ETFs
I'm accumulating cash
I'm still investing (added more healthcare stocks to the portfolio)
Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
Cup and handleTarget 1 is 5800, calculated from taking the height of the cup and handle structure divided by 2, added to the top of the handle inflection point.
Bearish Engulfing on Risk. Average quarterly downside since 2023 open is 4.07%. Is a retest of near the yearly open on order over the month of August? Markets are no longer pricing in a Fed rate cut in September. Will that be the near term bearish fuel?
