SPY and its games -FOMC buy level needs to be taken out After 3 days of back and forth, the trend line is the deciding factor for me on the bearish bias.
Once the FOMC buy level is taken with at least 4hr closure, sellers are in control.
SP500 trade ideas
SPX ShortElite Analysis
Trade took previous high.
Market gave me a 30m BOS
Identified internal LP
Received confirmation on the 10m and 1m.
Executed off the 1m.
Targets lower LP's
29-07-2025This chart contains my analysis and key observations for today's trading session. All drawings and indicators reflect my current view of the market as of today. The purpose of this publication is to keep a record of my analysis and review it later for learning and improvement. No investment advice is provided.
SPX500 Awaits Fed – Key Support at 6388 in FocusSPX500 Awaits Fed Decision – Breakdown Below 6365 Could Deepen Correction
Following the registration of a new all-time high at the beginning of the week, the price has started to decline. Also, investors await the Federal Reserve's policy statement later today for guidance on the future path of monetary policy.
The price is currently positioned below the 6388 level, which is a key zone in conjunction with the support line at 6365. This area signals the potential for a new downward correction if the price stabilizes below 6365.
A sustained move below 6365, confirmed by a 1H or 4H candle close, would open the door to a sharper decline toward 6341, followed by 6319, both considered critical support zones.
As for the bullish scenario: if the price finds support and manages to rebound today, the first step toward recovery would be a breakout above 6388, which may lead to a climb toward 6415. Breaking above 6415 would pave the way to retest the resistance zone at 6427, with the potential to reach a new all-time high at 6454.
Key Levels
• Support: 6365 - 6341 - 6319.
• Resistance: 6388 - 6415 - 6427.
S&P 500 as expensive as at the end of 2021 in valuation terms !Two weeks ago, I shared a technical analysis of the S&P 500 across all timeframes. This analysis outlines price targets for the end of 2025 based on technical and fundamental criteria. You can revisit this analysis by clicking the first chart below.
WARNING: A major bullish target I previously mentioned is close to being reached—6,475 points on the S&P 500 futures contract. The market may soon enter a consolidation phase.
Given this week's packed fundamentals, it's wise to start locking in your gains by moving up your stop-loss levels—especially as the S&P 500 has now returned to its end-2021 valuation peak.
Click on the table below to access details on this week's significant fundamental developments:
1. Caution: The S&P 500 has reached its end-2021 valuation record!
While technical market analysis is important, valuation metrics are even more so. The S&P 500 has just reached its previous valuation peak from the end of 2021—historically the starting point of the 2022 bear market. While the current macro context is different, this level could trigger a short-term market pause.
Chart showing S&P 500 valuation via the CAPE Ratio (Shiller PE):
2. S&P 500 seasonality is weaker in August and bearish in September
Another cautionary factor is seasonality. A statistical look at average S&P 500 performance by month highlights a weaker period in August and a typically negative one in September.
In summary, technical, fundamental, and seasonal analysis all point to securing gains as we approach August/September—without questioning the underlying long-term uptrend.
Chart showing S&P 500 seasonality since 1960:
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SPX preparing to sweep liquidity around the 6200 level.Based on my analysis, the #SPX has printed a reversal engulfing candle, which could lead to a period of consolidation. The most probable target appears to be the liquidity pool around the 6200 level.
However, this outlook becomes invalid if the daily candle closes above 6410—the current (today) session high.
As always, conduct your due diligence. Technical analysis offers a probabilistic perspective, not certainty.
SPX500 Correction Before Rally? Key Levels in FocusSPX500 Correction Before Rally? Key Levels in FocusSPX500 OVERVIEW
Fundamental Context:
The U.S. and EU have averted a tariff standoff. The agreement reduces the baseline tariff on most European imports to 15%, down from the previously threatened 30% by the Trump administration. In return, the EU has committed to investing approximately $600 billion in the U.S.
Additionally, U.S.–China trade talks are ongoing in Stockholm, with reports suggesting a possible 90-day extension to the tariff deadline.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 maintains a bullish bias due to easing trade tensions. However, as long as the price trades below 6421, a short-term correction toward 6397 and 6388 is likely. A rebound is expected if the price stabilizes above 6388.
🔺 Bullish Continuation will be confirmed if a 1H candle closes above 6427, potentially targeting 6454 and 6470.
Key Levels
• Support: 6397 – 6388 – 6365
• Resistance: 6454 – 6470
The Golden Age 7000 EOY SPXThe Golden Age (year) is here!
Have cash ready for May in April. Be heavy hedges going in to 26.
We're going to juice earnings with all the investments pouring in for just about every single industry. Once the injection is complete, we will reset while all the invested money completes projects.
GL!
Better Buy Bitcoin
SPX....what goes up, must go downThis is long overdue. SPX has just crossed 9SMA, next 50SMA then 200SMA. Won't be surprised if it knocks each very soon. This will be a big week and tariffs are going to start hitting; even though this was mostly artificial and Americans are paying 90% of it! When in doubt, sell and park in money market! The next dip will hit hard and deep. Don't let the small wins overshadow the deep issues in the economy. Overpriced market and many lagging indicators will soon hit and default rates that are coming out are scary! Stay safe and don't get emotional over any stock. If it dips, you can always buy it cheaper.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Classic Gap Opening TradeI noticed a classic gap up opening on 📉US500 Index and believe it will be filled today.
The formation of an intraday bearish change of character (CHoCH) on the hourly chart indicates a strong likelihood of continued bearish movement.
Target - 6400.
No FOMOSPY does its thing and will keep moving higher but cautious on low volume push.
To keep it simple, if there is a daily close back inside the master trendline sometime this week, a short setup will be adequate to the previous all time high @ 6095
S&P 500 Counter-Trend Setup After Bullish Week US500Currently watching the S&P 500 (US500) closely 👀. The index has been in a strong bullish trend 📈, but I’m now evaluating a potential counter-trend opportunity.
Given the strength we’ve seen this week — possibly a “foolish rally” — there’s a chance we’ve either printed or are close to printing the high of the week 🧱. That opens the door for a retracement setup, particularly as we head into Monday’s open 🗓️.
🧠 Trade idea: If we get a bearish market structure break, I’ll be looking to enter short — targeting a 1R take profit initially, and holding a portion for a 2R–3R extension 🎯.
Friday sessions, especially after strong trends, often present clean intraday pullbacks — and when Monday’s low is set early, it can trap late buyers and fuel the move 📉.
⚠️ This is not financial advice — just sharing my thought process and trade plan.
New All-Time Highs for S&P 500 – No Resistance AheadThe S&P 500 is officially in price discovery mode, printing new all-time highs with clean higher highs and higher lows.
Each old resistance flipped into strong support—textbook bullish market structure.
As long as this trend holds, there's no ceiling in sight. Bulls are fully in control.
SPX500USD is on a riseHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD started the next impulse wave 5 (grey) as I've said in my outlook.
Next week we could see more upside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
NOTE: the next three weeks I'm on holiday so I will not post any outlook publicly.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Rob the Rally SPX500: Enter Before Resistance Catches You🦹♂️💰**“SPX500 Street Heist” – Thief-Style Robbery Plan for Bulls!**📈💸
(Powered by Thief Trader's Market Robbing Tactics – Scalp | Swing | Day Trade Edition)
🌍Hello, Global Money Hunters!
📣 Salaam, Bonjour, Ola, Hola, Hallo, Marhaba & Welcome to the heist floor! 🎩💼
Thief Trader is back again with a loaded plan to rob the market clean — this time targeting the mighty SPX500 / US500 🎯. Based on a fusion of technical setups, macro sentiment, and the Thief Trading System, we’ve set our sights on the next breakout vault of Wall Street.
🎯 The Gameplan – Heist the Resistance Vault
The index is entering a high-risk resistance barricade — overbought, consolidated, and heavily guarded by bearish robbers (sellers). This is the zone where the market police lurk and trend reversals often get triggered. However, smart thieves always plan with precision.
Here’s the mission briefing:
🔓Entry Zone (Break-in Point)
💥 “The vault is open — grab the bullish loot!”
Enter Long anywhere close to market price or on pullbacks near recent swing lows/highs.
Preferred timeframes: 15-min to 30-min for sniper-level accuracy.
Deploy DCA-style limit orders (layered entries for maximum control).
🛑Stop Loss (Escape Hatch)
Base SL on recent swing low candle wicks on the 4H timeframe.
Suggested: ~6250.00 — but adapt based on your risk appetite, lot size, and position stacking.
📈Target / Loot Location
🎯 Primary Take-Profit: 6450.00
Or… pull out early if you spot resistance fighters guarding the vault.
Use trailing SL to secure gains and manage getaway.
⚡Scalper’s Notice
Only Long-side allowed!
Got big capital? Jump in now.
Running low? Tag along with swing traders and follow the robbery protocol.
Always protect your bag with dynamic trailing stops.
🧠Fundamental Fuel Behind the Plan
Bullish sentiment across major indices
Macro trends, COT positioning, sentiment outlook, and intermarket analysis all greenlit
Geopolitical and Fed tone supportive — tap into real data before entering
👉 Always analyze: News, Fundamentals, Sentiment, COT reports, and macro conditions.
🚨NEWS ZONE ALERT – No Loud Moves!
Avoid entry during major economic news drops
Use trailing SLs to guard profits
Don’t let your open trades get caught in the chaos of news releases!
💥Let’s Boost the Thief Army!
Smash the BOOST button 💖 to power up the robbery crew.
Support the strategy, share the love, and stay ahead of the game using Thief Trading Style. Every trade is a step closer to freedom from financial traps. 🚀💰🎉
📌Disclaimer: This is a general market analysis for educational purposes and should not be considered personal financial advice. Please evaluate your own risk management strategy before placing trades.
📌Markets shift fast — stay flexible, stay alert, and always rob smart.
🔥Stay locked in for the next heist plan — Thief Trader signing off for now…
💸💼📈 Trade smart. Rob harder. 🤑🦹♂️📊
US500 Bulls Assemble | Breakout Heist Strategy📈🚨 MASTER HEIST PLAN: “SPX500 ROBBERY – THIEF TRADING STYLE 🔥💸” 🚨📈
(The Ultimate Long Strategy Blueprint for Smart Day/Swing Traders)
🌍 Greetings to All Market Bandits, Bullish Burglars, and Chart Snipers!
Hola! Bonjour! Ola! Hallo! Marhaba! 🙌
🦹♂️This is your friendly chart thief checking in with the latest SPX500/US500 masterplan!
This isn’t just a trade—it’s a heist 🎯. We’re not here to participate, we’re here to dominate! Welcome to the Thief Trading Style, where we map, trap, and snatch those pips with ruthless precision. 🧠🔍💰
🚀 THIEF TRADE SETUP - SPX500/US500
A mix of technical sniper entries + fundamental black ops analysis = 💸 Maximum Extraction. 💸
🎯 ENTRY PLAN: THE BREAKOUT HEIST
📍Buy Entry Zone: Wait for the clean breakout + candle close above 6270.00.
"The vault opens once we clear that wall. Let the bullish getaway begin!" 💥🚪📈
🛠️Thief Tips for Entry:
Use Buy Stop Orders above resistance levels.
OR layer in Buy Limit Orders near recent pullbacks (15/30m swing zones) using DCA Style (Dollar Cost Average layering like a pro).
Want stealth mode? Set that alert (alarm), and strike when the breakout sings. 🔔🎯
🛑 STOP LOSS – PROTECT THE LOOT
🧨Set your SL smart—beneath the nearest swing low using the 2H timeframe for stronger structure.
💬 “Look, don’t gamble. A thief knows when to run. Set that stop where I showed ya, or risk losin’ the bag.” 💼💣
❗Your SL should reflect your risk per trade, lot size, and number of entries. It’s your getaway plan—don’t mess it up.
💥 TARGETS – WHERE WE CASH OUT
🏴☠️Primary Take Profit (TP1): 6310.00
🏴☠️Secondary Take Profit (TP2): 6370.00
💹 Scalp Traders: Stick to the Long Side Only. Ride the momentum, but use trailing SL to lock it in.
🔍 THIEF FUNDAMENTAL INTEL: WHY THIS IS OUR MOMENT
Current SPX500 bullishness driven by:
✅ Positive macro & geopolitical tailwinds
✅ Institutional positioning (COT reports)
✅ Intermarket analysis showing strong correlations
✅ Momentum building with sentiment and volume
📌 Stay sharp—check all your fundamental reports, news catalysts, and sentiment tools before executing your move. Smart thieves plan every detail. 🎓📊
⚠️ NEWS RELEASE REMINDER
📢 News = Chaos. Don’t get caught in the spray:
🔒Avoid entering trades just before big announcements.
🚀 Use Trailing SL to secure profit if you're already in.
Stay agile. Stay smart. Stay rich. 💼🚁
❤️ SUPPORT THE HEIST – HIT THAT BOOST BUTTON!
👊 Liked the plan? Hit the Boost to join the elite robbery crew.
Every boost fuels the mission. Every like sharpens the strategy. Let's build a team of smart, profitable traders. 🚀💸🔥
🧠 Remember: This is general analysis – not financial advice. Manage your risk like a true thief. Stay updated. Adapt fast. Don't get caught. 🕵️♂️
🎉See you in the next Heist Plan! Keep your tools sharp, your charts cleaner, and your profit bags fatter. 🤑🔥
SPX500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISSPX500 has broken above the recent range, reclaiming the 6,351.41 resistance. Price is now pushing into the 6,380.00 zone, with buyers showing control after a strong recovery from the 6,222.46 low.
Support at: 6,351.41 🔽 | 6,324.08 | 6,296.93
Resistance at: 6,380.00 🔼 | 6,409.21 | 6,438.44
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustained trading above 6,351.41 opens the door toward 6,409.21 and higher.
🔽 Bearish: A close back below 6,351.41 may trigger a retest of 6,324.08 and 6,296.93.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
S&P Fibonacci based Accumulation/Distribution rangesFibonacci-Based Zones: The chart is structured around support and resistance zones derived from Fibonacci analysis, providing natural levels for market reaction.
Accumulation Zone: Lower price area (~4,133.94 and above) where buyers show interest and trend reversal is often seeded.
Trading Range: The broad mid-section where price is expected to oscillate, indicating indecision or equilibrium among buyers and sellers.
Distribution Zone: Upper price band near the Goldman Sachs 2025 target, as marked, where profit-taking and seller interest increases.
Potential for Parabolic Move: If price decisively breaks out above the distribution/resistance zone, it could trigger rapid, euphoric buying—a classic market melt-up.
Risk of Downside: Falling below the key Fibonacci support level could prompt a sharp correction,.
Historical Validation: Past price movements respect these zones.
Bulls and Bears zone for 08-08-2025ETH session has rallied to 61.8 Fibonacci level of yesterday's RTH session. Any test of ETH session High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 6384 --- 6386
This V-Pattern on SPX500 Is Stupid CleanHey, it’s Skeptic.
In this video, I’m breaking down a clean V-pattern setup on SPX500 — right in line with what I taught in yesterday’s educational post.
We’re starting from the Daily time frame and walking through the logic behind my long trigger, why the previous fakeout was actually useful, and how to set your stop-loss depending on your trading style (H4 vs 15min).
This isn’t just chart talk — it’s about reading the story behind the candles.
If it helped you see things clearer, give it a boost and drop your thoughts below.
Let’s keep learning — one trap at a time.
Until next time, peace out.
📌 Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
S&P bullish continuation supported at 6340Tariff Turmoil and Geopolitical Shifts – Implications for S&P 500 Trading
Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs officially took effect, hitting nearly all U.S. trading partners. Switzerland, facing the steepest rates among developed nations, may retaliate by cancelling a major fighter jet purchase, signaling potential defense-sector implications.
Key developments:
Semiconductor imports to face 100% tariffs, unless production is moved onshore – a bullish signal for domestic chipmakers (e.g., Intel, GlobalFoundries) but negative for firms reliant on overseas fabs.
Additional tariffs floated on China over purchases of Russian oil, echoing similar penalties on India – suggesting growing fragmentation in global trade.
Market impact:
S&P 500 sectors likely affected:
Tech (Semis): Tariff pressure may weigh on multinationals like Nvidia or AMD short term, but benefit domestic fabs and U.S.-based supply chains.
Industrials/Defense: Swiss retaliation could ripple through defense contractors if deals are halted.
Energy/Commodities: Any China-Russia oil tensions could lead to energy volatility, affecting names like ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips.
Meanwhile, China’s exports unexpectedly rose, softening the blow from the U.S. tariff crackdown. Chinese equity gains could calm broader EM sentiment, helping mitigate global risk-off contagion.
Finally, Trump signaled potential peace talks with Putin and Zelenskiy, with the Kremlin confirming a Putin meeting soon. A diplomatic breakthrough could ease geopolitical risk, supporting investor sentiment and equities globally.
Bottom Line for S&P 500:
Expect sector rotation as traders digest tariff fallout. Watch for:
Strength in domestically focused tech and defense stocks
Caution around globally exposed industrials and semis
Short-term volatility tied to trade rhetoric and geopolitical headlines
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6437
Resistance Level 2: 6480
Resistance Level 3: 6520
Support Level 1: 6340
Support Level 2: 6295
Support Level 3: 6256
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
