SP500 trade ideas
Decision pointThe weakness of the trend is clearly visible, but we need to see how it reacts to the channel’s midline. If buying pressure increases, the price could reach 6400. Otherwise, a correction down to around 6330 is likely.
US500 Market Insight US500 Market Insight
The US500 continues to demonstrate resilience amid a complex macroeconomic backdrop, trading around 6,388 at mid-session today. This represents a modest 0.40% recovery from the previous close of 6,299, signaling improving investor sentiment despite ongoing market headwinds.
Fundamental Outlook: Market Resilience Amid Volatility
After a stretch of choppy trading sessions driven by mixed U.S. economic data and escalating tariff concerns, the index has regained its footing above the psychologically important 6,300 support level. This bounce reflects investor confidence in the broader market’s fundamentals, particularly in the face of global policy uncertainties.
Strong Corporate Earnings as a Key Driver
Earnings season has delivered notable upside surprises, particularly in the technology, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors. Positive forward guidance and robust profit margins have underpinned the index’s strength, helping offset negative sentiment from trade related headlines and slowing global demand in select sectors.
Dovish Federal Reserve Expectations
Markets are increasingly pricing in a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve, even as policymakers continue to stress a data dependent approach. With inflation surprising on the upside and NFP data coming out softer, this is reinforcing expectations for possible rate cuts later in 2025. This has eased pressure on equities and boosted appetite for risk assets.
Technical Outlook: Bullish Continuation
From a technical perspective, the US500 remains in a well defined long-term uptrend. Maintaining price action above 6,300 strengthens the case for further gains, with 6,400–6,500 seen as the next potential resistance zone. Keep watching for consolidation above 6,300 to confirm breakout momentum.
Key Risks and Market Sensitivities
Despite the positive bias, risks remain. The index remains highly sensitive to global trade developments, particularly US-China and US-EU tariff disputes. In addition, any shift in Fed tone or unexpected inflation data could trigger renewed volatility.
Conclusion
The US500’s current recovery reflects a careful balance of strong earnings, improving rate outlook, and technical support. While bullish sentiment persists, the path forward will likely remain data driven and headline sensitive, requiring traders to remain nimble. A sustained break above 6,400 could open the door to new highs later this quarter, but near-term volatility should not be discounted.
Analysis by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
SPX BUY SPOT 8/61h had a unicorn setup I seen forming yesterday. Today I got on just after 7:30 am and saw price inside POI/IPA. All it did was WICK that gap, not fill it. I went against the 4h and 1h candles both being bearish because price reacted to the OPEN of the FVG. This makes it risky because we could still fill and sweep below that wick. Just had a little FOMO this morning once the reaction happened. No major news until tomorrow. I love the sweet spot where price is. Perfect HL area on 1 hour even tho we can sweep lower again, we shall see!
SPX Breakdown or Another Push Higher?Hi y'all thanks for tuning in! Here are a few written notes to sum up the video.
Indecision at New Highs
After breaking out to new all-time highs, SPX printed a doji on the weekly chart, signaling indecision. This hesitation could mark the start of digestion.
Still Structurally Bullish, but Extended
The weekly chart shows SPX is still holding trend structure, but price is notably extended from the 10EMA. Historically, when price moves too far from key short-term EMAs, it tends to reset either via time (sideways chop) or price (pullback).
Daily Chart Shows a Shelf Forming
On the daily chart, price has been consolidating just under the prior high with small-bodied candles. This is forming a “shelf” around the 6,260–6,280 zone. It’s acting like a pause, not a breakdown. Holding above this zone keeps the trend intact.
Pullback Risk Increases Below 6,232
If price loses 6,232 (last week's breakout area and short-term shelf), it increases the likelihood of a pullback toward the 6160 or even deeper toward the 5970. That lower zone also marks the bottom of the prior consolidation box from earlier this year.
Seasonality Reminder
Historically, July is strong in the first half, with weakness (if it shows up) arriving mid-to-late month. So far, price has tracked that seasonal strength. Any weakness from here would align with that typical timing.
SPX CORRECTIONThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) faced strong rejection at the upper resistance zone near 6,400, where -243B was sold, signaling aggressive institutional distribution. This area aligns with the broader -3.4T monthly level, confirming it as a significant ceiling.
Multiple support levels lie below. The first key zone near 6,200 is being tested. If broken, deeper liquidity pockets are visible around 6,000 and 5,700, where 162B was previously absorbed. Further down, the high-volume August 2023 level near 5,000 remains a macro support with 920B of institutional activity.
Upside target (if reclaimed): 6,400
Downside target (if breakdown continues): 5,700 → 5,000
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SPX500 NEARING AN IMPORTANT FIB. EXTENSION RESISTANCEIn this weekend's analysis I find the SPX500 to remain BULLISH for next few days as we have strong closings outside the upper KC band and also touching the upper Bollinger band on the higher time frames from Daily to Monthly charts. It's also important to note that declining volume bars is NOT supporting the monthly rally, while MACD, RSI divergences are also sounding warning sirens that it's near a major correction territory which I have measure as the fib extension 0.618 from the October, 2022 base or support on the monthly chart. As signaled last week that we could be getting a capitulation candle soon to the fib target. Once we get a reversal candle on the 4 Hours it will confirm that the intermediate tops is achieved on the SPX500 and a correction is highly probable. So our trade thesis is Bullish until we get a confirmed bearish signal on either the 4H or 1D timeframe with Stop loss at 6377 level. Thanks for visiting my publication and trade idea on the SPX500. Cheers and happy trading to everyone.
SPX500 AnalysisThis analysis is based on the 4-Hour timeframe, reversal trading, and trend formation.
If the price breaks below the white line (H&S breakout point) and closes, then my H&S pattern is complete, and I will short on its retest. I will post updates about this trade soon!
SPX500 Buy analysis/ideaThis trade is based on the 4-hour chart and executed using reversal trading, trend formation and an update on the analysis I posted on this instrument yesterday.
Complete explanation in the video!
S&P500 uptrend pause supported at 6355The S&P 500 slipped -0.12% after initially rising +0.3%, as Fed Chair Powell’s cautious “wait-and-see” stance on rate cuts dampened sentiment. The metals and mining sector dragged the index lower, falling nearly -4% after the U.S. announced surprise copper tariff details—excluding refined metal until 2027—leading to a sharp -20% drop in COMEX copper futures.
However, market sentiment rebounded overnight, driven by strong tech earnings. Meta surged +11.5% post-market on upbeat Q3 guidance and rising AI-driven ad revenues, while Microsoft rose over +8% thanks to better-than-expected Azure cloud growth and a $30 billion AI infrastructure investment.
Conclusion:
Despite short-term pressure from the Fed’s tone and commodity weakness, strong AI-driven earnings from major tech firms are likely to support a positive bias for the S&P 500 in the near term, especially in the tech-heavy growth segments. Broader gains may depend on upcoming inflation data and Fed clarity.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6470
Resistance Level 2: 6500
Resistance Level 3: 6545
Support Level 1: 6355
Support Level 2: 6315
Support Level 3: 6282
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
FOMC rate decision 30-07-2025FOMC announced no change to interest rate, but the new tariffs is the major player for the upcoming quarter, we shall see its effect on the economy and corporates earnings soon, then the fed can make better judgment whether to lower interest rate or not.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
S&P Market Update – Signs of a Short-Term Correction?Although the S&P remains in an uptrend, recent price action suggests that momentum may be fading.
📉 Key Observations:
A Key Day Reversal occurred at 6409 – a potential warning signal.
We're seeing RSI divergence: price made a new high, but RSI didn’t follow suit.
The market is grinding higher, but without conviction.
📊 What to Watch:
The 15-day EMA, currently at 6317, is acting as near-term support. A close below this level could trigger a short-term correction.
Initial downside targets: 6147–6100, the previous highs from late 2024 and early 2025.
✅ To negate this bearish bias, the market would need to break above 6409 and continue higher with stronger momentum.
Stay alert — the technicals are flashing red flags. Always manage risk accordingly.
Disclaimer:
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SPX500USD | Retesting All-Time HighsThe index has extended its bullish rally, printing a new local high at 6,286.5 before showing signs of slight hesitation with consecutive small-bodied candles.
Support at: 6,134.5 / 6,026.0 / 5,926.2 🔽
Resistance at: 6,286.5 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustains above 6,134.5 and breaks 6,286.5 for new highs.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 6,134.5 could trigger a retracement toward 6,026.0.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
SPX500 AnalysisThis analysis is based on the 4-hour timeframe, reversal trading, and trend formation. I've posted a video explaining what I think is probable to happen and why.
Tuesday 29 July: Forex Market thoughts The EUR has begun the week under pressure following the US / EUR trade deal.
EUR weakness could be out down to what they call 'sell the fact', meaning buy last week's deal rumours / sell (take profit) on the announcement. Or, more likely, it could be because it appears the US has the better side of the deal. Either way, all of lat week's EUR positivity has dissipated.
I didn't get involved in a EUR short trade yesterday, but there is a case to say it was viable.
The USD and JPY begin the week on the front foot. Possibly benefitting from 'EUR liquidity', or possibly due to 'positioning' ahead of this week's FOMC and BOJ meetings.
As things stand, with the VIX below 15 and the S&P still riding high, I maintain my view that according to market fundamentals, 'risk on' trades 'should' be viable. Which means staying patient and waiting for a turnaround, particularly on the JPY charts.
If that turnaround doesn't come, I could be forced to change my view.
S&P500 uptrend pause supported at 6355US equities were largely subdued, with the S&P 500 inching up +0.02%, marking its sixth straight record high, the longest streak since July 2023. Despite the headline gain, over 70% of S&P 500 stocks declined, revealing weak breadth and suggesting index gains are being driven by a narrow group of large-cap tech names.
Tech led the way, with the information technology sector +0.77% and the Mag-7 rising +0.79%.
Semiconductors outperformed, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed +1.62%, driven by AMD’s +4.32% surge.
Momentum is building ahead of key Big Tech earnings: Microsoft and Meta report tomorrow; Apple and Amazon follow Thursday.
Meanwhile, traders are staying cautious ahead of a busy macro week:
FOMC decision (Wednesday),
Core PCE, Q2 GDP, ISM, and nonfarm payrolls still to come.
Geopolitical developments include a possible 90-day US-China trade truce extension and Taiwan cancelling overseas travel, which may help de-escalate tensions.
On the corporate front:
Apple's India strategy sees it surpass China as the top smartphone source for US buyers.
Harley-Davidson may sell its finance unit in a $5B deal with Pimco and KKR.
Vitol rewarded top staff with $10.6B in share buybacks—a record.
Conclusion for S&P 500 Trading
The S&P 500 continues to post record highs, but narrow leadership and weak breadth raise red flags. With tech doing the heavy lifting, near-term direction hinges on earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Broader market upside looks fragile ahead of critical Fed and economic data, suggesting that any disappointment could trigger a pullback. Stay cautious and watch for rotation or retracement if macro or earnings catalysts falter.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6430
Resistance Level 2: 6470
Resistance Level 3: 6500
Support Level 1: 6355
Support Level 2: 6315
Support Level 3: 6280
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX500USD | Bulls Lose Steam at 6,424.5 ResistanceThe S&P 500 Index showed strong bullish momentum but is now pulling back after tagging resistance at 6,424.5. Price is currently hovering near 6,374.6, where previous structure may act as support.
Support at: 6,374.6 / 6,340.0 🔽
Resistance at: 6,424.5 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Bounce from 6,374.6 and reclaim of 6,424.5 signals continuation.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 6,374.6 exposes 6,340.0 and lower zones.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
SPX....what goes up, must go downThis is long overdue. SPX has just crossed 9SMA, next 50SMA then 200SMA. Won't be surprised if it knocks each very soon. This will be a big week and tariffs are going to start hitting; even though this was mostly artificial and Americans are paying 90% of it! When in doubt, sell and park in money market! The next dip will hit hard and deep. Don't let the small wins overshadow the deep issues in the economy. Overpriced market and many lagging indicators will soon hit and default rates that are coming out are scary! Stay safe and don't get emotional over any stock. If it dips, you can always buy it cheaper.
Bulls and Bears zone for 07-28-2025Last week 4 out of 5 sessions S&P 500 made new ATH. However they were all trading within a tight range.
Level to watch: 6434---6436
Weekly Review: Forex fundamental analysis The week starting Monday 21 July was another week of positive sentiment, the S&P continues to hit all time highs and the VIX remains anchored below 17.
The upbeat mood was propelled by an announcement of a tariff deal between the US and Japan. The market now thinks it's likely deals with EUROPE and CHINA will soon follow. All the while, earnings season continues to quietly slip under the radar (it's worth noting the upcoming week does have a plethora of huge companies reporting).
An election in JAPAN caused uncertainty, giving the JPY a bout of strength at the beginning of the week. I then found it difficult to decide if the US / JAPAN trade deal would be positive or negative for the JPY, ultimately the overall positive risk tone prevailed and the JPY ended the week softly.
It was also a week of two halves for the USD, the interest rate battle between the president and chair Powell continues to cause uncertainty. The FOMC meeting and the upcoming slue of reg flag US data will be very interesting. And could determine the underlying bias for the USD for the rest of the summer.
The EUR and GBP were prominent throughout the week, a 'hawkish hold' from the ECB, combined with positive PMI data and hopes of a trade deal, all contributed to positive sentiment for the EUR.
On the opposite end of the scale, the GBP ended the week bruised, weakened by another bout of 'soft data'. Which opened the door to potential 'relative fundamental' GBP short trades.
Finally, 'fairly hawkish' comments from the RBA'S BULLOCK keeps the AUD high on my to long list.
On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. I perhaps was a little bold in thinking the JPY post election strength was overdone, entering an AUD JPY long which stopped out. You might often think it's frustrating when a trade stops out, but then eventually hits the original profit target. Personally, I take the positive view that at least my original bias was proved correct.
The week was saved on Friday with a EUR GBP long, post GBP retail sales data and trying to take advantage of the positive EUR sentiment.
*As I write, it appears a US /EUR tariff deal is very close, which backs up thoughts of 'risk on' trades to begin the new week.
Trade 1: AUD JPY -1
Trade 2: EUR GBP +1.5
Total = +0.5%
SPX: Tariffs deal (un)certainty Investors' optimism continued to hold at the U.S. equity markets another week in a row. The S&P 500 posted another weekly winning streak, supported by solid earnings of companies included in the index. The index also reached another all time highest level, with Friday's level of 6.388, gaining around 1,5% for the week.
Tech companies were once again main contributors to the surge of the index. Alphabet posted better than expected quarterly results, supporting the surge in share price of 4%. Tesla shares gained 3,5% for the week. The company reported strong vehicle delivery numbers and progress in AI-driven autonomous driving technology. Analysts are noting that 82% of all companies included in the S&P 500 index, that have already reported quarterly results, have beaten the market expectations.
Alongside strong earnings reports, recent advancements in U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to market gains. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump announced a significant trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% reciprocal tariff arrangement—an important step toward redefining trade terms between the two nations. Additionally, the U.S. and Indonesia have reportedly reached a framework agreement for a trade deal, reflecting a broader U.S. effort to strengthen and stabilize trade partnerships in Asia. On Friday, President Trump expressed confidence that more trade agreements will be finalized ahead of the August 1 deadline for new tariffs. One of these possible deals involves the European Union. Investors have welcomed these developments, as they help reduce tariff-related uncertainties and ease concerns about escalating trade disputes that could disrupt global supply chains and impact corporate earnings.
The week ahead brings a bunch of important macro data for the U.S. as well as the FOMC meeting, where Fed members will discuss a potential change in interest rates. Markets are currently not expecting that the Fed will make a move at this meeting. Certainly, with JOLTs, NFP, PCE data in combination with the FOMC meeting, the week ahead might bring back some higher volatility in the US equity markets, in case of any unexpected news.
Where is the opportunity now?Small and microcap stocks have that reputation for being "icky" but they are currently looking like anything but that!
