Liquidity sweep warning from my DSS. Let's see if we see a rug pull in the markets, or we will witness something magical :)
SP500FT trade ideas
S&P500 ready to pullback?From the pure technical analysis S&P500 is ready to continue is move down for another 4% drop from today's close. Next week will be very interesting.
SPX500USD - Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Major US Data!The S&P 500 Index (SPX500USD) is currently trading near a significant supply zone around 5885–5925. Price has shown clear rejection here multiple times, indicating strong selling pressure from institutional players.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 5885–5925 (Supply Zone)
First Support: 5659.1 – former resistance, now turned key support
Major Demand Zone: 5355.3 – 5400, marked by high-volume accumulation (Visible Range POC)
Bearish Scenario: If price fails to break above the 5925 resistance, we may see a potential sell-off toward 5659 first, and possibly down to the 5355 demand zone, especially with upcoming US economic data later this week (as marked by the calendar icons).
Watch For:
Rejection candles or bearish engulfing around 5885–5925
Break and close below 5659 for further downside confirmation
Strong bullish momentum only above 5930 to invalidate bearish bias
Bias: Bearish unless 5930 is broken convincingly.
Technical Tools Used:
Supply & Demand Visible Range (LuxAlgo)
Volume Profile Support Zones
Price Action Structure (1H)
What do you think? Will SPX500 hold the resistance or break to new highs? Let’s discuss!
#SPX500 #SP500 #TradingView #Forex #Indices #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #SwingTrading
S&P 500 and the 200-Day Moving Average – A Simple Trend SignalLooking at the daily chart of the S&P 500 with the 200-day moving average (turquoise line), you could build a very basic—but often effective—trend-following system:
✅ Price above the 200-day MA = Bull trend
❌ Price below the 200-day MA = Bear trend
🔄 Price oscillating around it = Possible trend change
________________________________________
📊 Current Setup:
We’ve broken sharply below the 200-day MA and have seen only a minor bounce back above it—with little follow-through. This kind of price action typically suggests a weakening bull trend.
⚠️ If we break below the 200-day MA again (currently around 5773), I’d start viewing that as a bearish signal. Right now, I’m watching this level very closely, as the next move could offer a strong clue about the market’s direction.
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S&P 500 at Key Inflection Zone: Golden Pocket vs. Breakdown RiskPrice is hovering around the 0.618 Fib retracement and the 200-day MA — Bulls' eye 6.5% to ATH, Bears target a -16% drop.
Critical decision point ahead.
If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg.
S&P 500 (SPX) multi-decade chart (2-week time frame), the chart overlays key historical highs, major corrections, and media sentiment headlines—all critical for a macro-technical assessment. Below is an expert-level breakdown integrating price action, moving averages, sentiment analysis, and cyclical behavior.
📊 Macro Technical Assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX)
🟢 Trend Analysis (1973–2025)
The chart illustrates a long-term secular uptrend, anchored by consistent support above the 200-period moving average (blue line) and a decades-long upward-sloping trendline (green).
Despite several deep corrections (marked in red boxes), the trend has always reverted to and eventually bounced above the 200 MA—a key signal of structural strength.
The current price is well above the MA200 but appears extended, similar to other historical peaks (e.g., 2000, 2007, and 2021–2022).
🔻 Historical Bear Market Corrections (Measured from Highs):
Year Peak-to-Trough Decline Event
1973–74 -51.9% Oil embargo, stagflation
1987 -37% Black Monday
2000–2002 -49% Dot-com bubble burst
2007–2009 -57% Global Financial Crisis
2020 -35% COVID crash
2022 -27% Fed tightening, inflation spike
2025 (so far) -21% Ongoing correction from all-time high
Each correction marked a reversion to or below the MA200, before initiating a fresh long-term leg up.
🧠 Psychological Sentiment Integration (Text Boxes & Headlines)
📰 Headlines & Crowd Sentiment Patterns
2000-2002: Dot-com euphoria followed by collapse—media and public overconfidence.
2007–2008: Financial crisis—major media disbelief in downside risk until it materialized.
2020–2022: Post-COVID rally labeled as “most hated in history” – a contrarian bullish signal.
2025: Present headlines again show skepticism despite all-time highs – echoing 2020 sentiment.
📌 Insight: The presence of bearish headlines at highs often indicates a disbelief rally, which historically results in short-term corrections but long-term gains if fundamentals catch up.
🔄 Current Price Context (2025)
Current Pullback: -21% from the recent ATH.
Support levels to watch:
MA200 (approx. 4,100–4,300 zone) – historically strong buy zone.
Trendline support dating back to the 1980s (~4,600).
The market is mid-correction, with a structure resembling 2000 or 2022, but not yet as deep.
📉 Bear Market Probability in 2025?
The current pullback is less severe than historical bear markets.
The media pessimism and overextension from MA200 could still trigger deeper corrections.
However, until the trendline and MA200 are broken decisively, this remains a correction in a bull market.
🔎 Key Takeaways
✅ Bullish Long-Term Signals:
Decades of higher highs/lows.
Strong respect for MA200 as dynamic support.
Recurring recoveries after panic-driven declines.
⚠️ Bearish Short-to-Mid-Term Risks:
Extended rally with rising skepticism (echoes of 2000/2007).
21% pullback already in place, which could deepen.
Failure to hold 4,600–4,300 range may open the door to full bear market correction (30–40%).
🧭 Strategic Outlook
Timeframe Bias Reason
Short-term (1–3 months) ⚠️ Neutral-to-bearish Ongoing correction phase, sentiment
bearish, overextension unwinding
Mid-term (6–12 months) 🟡 Cautiously bullish If trendline + MA200 hold, dip-buying
opportunity like 2011, 2020
Long-term (1–3 years) ✅ Bullish Structural uptrend intact, secular bull
likely to resume
here's a technical assessment of the S&P 500 (SPX) Daily Chart based solely on the image and technical levels shown:
🎯 Chart Summary:
Instrument: S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Timeframe: Daily (1D)
Key Levels: Fibonacci retracements, 200-day MA, support/resistance zones
Price Context: Currently in a pullback phase after attempting to reclaim the 2025 high (~6,151.74)
🔍 Technical Analysis Breakdown
📏 Fibonacci Retracement Zones:
The Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the recent swing low (~4,837.88) to the 2025 high (~6,151.74), measuring the key pullback levels.
Level Price Interpretation
0.236 ~5,120.12 Minor retracement – early warning
0.382 ~5,302.91 Medium support; possible bounce zone
0.5 ~5,455.40 Key support – equilibrium zone
0.618 ~5,612.28 Golden pocket – strong institutional interest
1.0 ~6,151.74 All-Time High (ATH) resistance
The price recently hit resistance near ATH and is pulling back toward the 50%-61.8% retracement zone, which is technically the "golden zone" for potential bullish reversal.
📉 Moving Average – 200-Day MA:
The blue line on the chart indicates the 200-day moving average (~5,612).
Price is sitting right on this MA, and this is crucial. The 200MA is one of the most respected institutional indicators—a breakdown below it could accelerate selling.
If price holds above this level, we may see renewed bullish momentum.
⚖️ Risk/Reward Profile
Upside potential: +6.5% toward ATH (~6,151)
Downside risk: -16% toward retracement lows (~5,120 and lower)
This sets up a skewed risk profile: unless strong buying steps in soon, the downside is significantly larger than the remaining upside.
🧭 Market Sentiment and Probability Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario (6.5% Upside):
Holding the 200MA + 0.618 Fib (~5,612) confirms this level as dynamic support.
This could attract dip buyers and institutional re-entry, pushing toward the ATH.
If reclaimed, a breakout above 6,151.74 would initiate a new bullish leg.
🚨 Bearish Scenario (-16% Downside):
If price loses the 200MA and falls through Fib 0.5 and 0.382, then a move toward 5,120 or even sub-5,000 becomes likely.
Break of structure = short-term trend change. A bearish engulfing candle or momentum rejection will confirm this shift.
🧠 Expert Insight:
This setup represents a technical inflection point. The confluence of:
Fibonacci golden zone (0.5–0.618),
200-day MA support,
and recent ATH rejection
...makes this a critical decision zone for the S&P 500.
Traders should watch volume, macro catalysts, and market breadth indicators closely over the next few sessions. If buyers step in here with conviction, a short-term rally is plausible. However, a clean break below these technical levels could open the door for a multi-week correction.
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025
- S&P 500 reversed from support level 5775,00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 5970,00
S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 5775,00 (former resistance from March, which formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star).
The support level 5775,00 was strengthened 20-day moving average and by the 38.21% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5970,00, top of the previous minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of May.
SPX AND WHAT WE STAND TO GAIN OR LOSE!⚡ Hey hey, hope all is well. Don't have too much time right now so just want to get a quick idea out, we'll keep this short and concise, thank you.
⚡ First thing's first, we're gonna take a quick Big picture look at our SP:SPX chart for today and we can take a look back on our ascending channel which helped propel us for most of 2024 into 2025 before we finally exited that channel in February and lost our 200 EMA.
⚡ The 200 EMA was our main tool for the last year or so, keeping above that gave traders and investors the confidence to keep things pushing and essentially kept the market on this wave which is simply rode up, everyone was making money and that money was going back into more investments further propelling things before we saw our SP:SPX hit an all time high in February at $6,200.
⚡ So we had the 200 EMA below us, we had much of the market making money, and with trump entering office, much of the market was understandably optimistic and things we're continuing pretty strong January through into February. We then had trump make his remarks on a possible recession and we started getting talks on tariffs which understandably prompted much of the market and market makers to take profits and we sort of got this reversal which I spoke more on in a previous idea which I'll link below for reference:
⚡ Before I continue and as a disclosure, none of this is meant to be taken in a political stance or with any bias, like I said, we're simply looking at the facts and the technical, that's all that matters.
⚡ To continue on, as the referenced idea represents, once that news hit the market sentiment shifted and we can see the descending channel that ensued with that which also prompted us to lose our 200 EMA, something we haven't seen happen since 2023 on the daily chart which puts us in a precarious position.
⚡ The market's basically lost two advantages. The last year or so that 200 EMA kept below the chart never converging which helped bulls alongside our ascending channel which was a significant component in this push for the all-time-high (ATH). So we 've basically lost both of those advantages which is what helped bulls climb so much ground the last year or so.
⚡ We already know the 200 EMA crossover is important but now it'll likely create a broader impact now that we have no channel to look. Instead, we'll likely see a number of traders more than likely looking out for those Bullish and Bearish crossover's for making plays which is already happening.
⚡ If we look at the beginning of April for example where we had that first 200 EMA crossover we can see just how dramatic the sell-off was, investors just weren't sure how far things we're going to go and once we got another crossover and regained that 200 EMA the buy-in action, volume was also dramatic signifying a market that's being led by sentiment rather than technical which again was the main driver for us the last year or so.
⚡ That being said technical of course is still playing a role, but we're seeing sentiment drive price action and being taken into account a lot more the last few weeks, especially with everything going on with Trump and the tariff war we had which put much of the market and investors on edge trying to figure out whether or not things we're looking optimistic or not for the market before China and the US we're able to ultimately come to an agreement helping put many minds at ease.
⚡ Next few weeks I'll be watching that 200 EMA to see if we get a bearish crossover or if we can avoid that and regain ground to which I'll be looking to my Fib. chart for as referenced below:
⚡ Next is a descending channel I've added to the daily chart which hopefully doesn't come into play again.
⚡ Can already see how that descending channel impacted us the second tiem around in April so main thing is that we avoid losing that 200 EMA again, and we keep away from that descending channel else we'll more than likely get dragged down further if we we're to reenter that channel much like we saw happen with the sell-off in April.
⚡ Have to run but just wanted to give quick technical look at our big picture idea here for the $SP:SPX. Current goal is to see a retest of $5,900 and avoid another convergence with that 200 EMA on the daily else we risk losing our footing and reversing.
⚡ As always, thanks so much for all the support, appreciate you all and wishing all the best till next. Don't just make it a good day, make it a great one.
Best regards,
~ Rock'
Bullish continuation?S&P500 has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,784.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,689.40
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 6,003.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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BearishThe market has tapped into our orderblock and filling the imbalance,break of the trend will confirm our way to the downside.
SP500 Ready to Continue it's Bullish MoveI just bought SP500 for it's bullish move continuation.
Monthly structure is bullish.
Weekly is bullish.
Daily is also bullish.
I entered for a long buy on the daily time frame retracement.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): SHORT to 38.2% - 50% Fibo lvl 5489.Colleagues, I have reviewed the waves a bit and I believe that when the strong psychological level of 6000 is reached, a reaction and correction in wave “2” is possible.
I propose to consider this movement as a strong five-wave movement. Wave “1” will be over soon.
I consider the 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci levels of 5489 to be the main target of the correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SPY Moving UpWe can look for price to continue up We are starting to see some selling pressure. The RSI on the one hour still has to grow.
SPX: tariffs, againPrevious week was relatively calm when macro data were in question, however, the peace was interrupted with a new narrative regarding trade tariffs. The US Administration plans to set trade tariffs with the European Union at 50%. The US President recently noted that these tariffs are currently not negotiable. Such a narrative imposed a drop in the value of the US equity markets. The S&P 500 was traded with a negative sentiment during the week, dropping from 5.962 down to 5.802 at Friday's trading session.
Another news hit Apple shares, when the US President commented that this company has to pay 25% on all IPhones which are not produced in the US. After this post, shares of Apple dropped by 3% on Friday. Analysts involved in a matter are commenting that the transfer of IPhones production from China to the US would increase the price of IPhones by 25%. On the other hand, the company United States Steel surged by 21% after the US President's announcement of a deal and “partnership” with Japanese Nippon Steel.
At this moment analysts are in agreement that the market is set for a sell-off in case of any news related to trade tariffs. The positive sentiment is extremely fragile and this might continue for some time in the future.
Monday Bounce from 4H Demand ZoneAfter taking a controlled loss on Friday, I came into Monday focused and clear-minded. Price tapped into a clean 4H demand zone and printed a strong bullish engulfing candle — a textbook rejection from imbalance. I waited for the 4H candle close before entering long.
Risk was tight below the demand zone, with a clear target above — offering a high RR setup. This trade wasn’t about the day of the week; it was about respecting structure, imbalance, and confirmation.
Pair: US500
Timeframe: 4H
Setup: Bullish engulfing off 4H demand zone + imbalance fill
Entry: After 4H candle close
Stop Loss: Below demand wick
Take Profit: Major clean high above imbalance
Risk-to-Reward: Over 3R
This is why I trade the 4H. One clean move. No stress. No noise. Just structure + patience.
– THE 4H TRADER
SPX500 H1 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,881.33 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 5,945.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 5,823.81 which is an overlap support.
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SPX - LONGWait for price to fill the gap. Once in the zone wait for bullish confirmation on the higher time frames for bulls to take over. TP set at previous highs.
Looking at Examples of 4.23 Breaks If markets continue to make shallow dips and rally higher, or even if there's a big sell off and false break of the lows that makes a V recovery then we're seeing a whole lot of things up-trending above massive inflection points. In this post I want to show you some different examples of what has happened on 4.23 breaks.
The 4.23 level is a very high probability level to trade off. Even on an intra day basis this will most often have at least reactions and can have full reversals off it. You can see in the SPX chart that the 2022 top came off the 4.23. When a 4.23 is going to be a reversal level it will often react to the 4.23 spike it out. Come back under and hold a retest. Forming a head and shoulders pattern with 4.23 as the shoulders. That setup when successful is a fatal setup for the trend. When inside the 4.23 head fake you're inside the end of the trend.
Interestingly, not only is SPX at this 4.23 level but so are lots of other things. Bitcoin is, for example.
BTC is often a good proxy for risk on/off so it's interesting this is at this big decision level along with SPX is interesting.
In the 4.23 reversal the rejection of rallies can be so strong and abrupt there's not a chance to do anything during it. You really have to think about it in advance.
But if the 4.23 break it's extremely easy to the upside for the foreseeable future.
Let's start with looking at the different 4.23 decisions in AAPL over the years.
This first one shows how the head fakes can be the end of rallies. This correcting relatively shallow compared to the full risk. Holding the 2.61.
From this pullback and 4.23 break AAPL went up 200% without any sizable pullbacks.
Advancing to the further swing.
In this one AAPL began to go parabolic in the run to the 4.23. Got a bit above it. Crashed back to it. Held retests and then went into a big boom move.
Almost every week closed higher in this period which continued until over 100% above the 4.23.
We advance the swing again and ... what's the chances?
AAPL last top is 4.23 and now we're retesting the 4.23.
Now ... there are different things that can happen. But if you were to assume the 4.23 pattern in AAPL continues it'd have to do this.
And if you believe that is possible (and it's possible) then the SPX chart in the OP makes a lot of sense, right?
Expecting BTC would do this would be obvious if indices made that move.
Look at NVDA.
To overlook the risks of rejection would be fatal if wrong (this could be a simple head and shoulders like pattern) but viewed through the lens of a 4.23 pullback this would have a hyper bullish forecast to it.
Over and over again you can make this case for things doubling without any major pullbacks. Candle after candle up-trends.
It would not be a time to be a bear!
Here's a look left on NVDA. If you had fibs from the crash range here was the 4.23 decision.
We could be somewhere like here in NVDA.
These are things you certainly have to respect the risk of as an active shorter of things. It'd not be good. And they're such massive outsized opportunities if they form like this that it'd be insane to not prep for what to do in this. If week after week after week is closing green and we never trade under the last week - a smart trader can build a massive position in that.
Think about the positions you could build in these periods where the market never crosses your entry again.
And then wait and start to trail stops when it goes parabolic. During this period there will be 10% jumps up and the trend of shallow pullbacks will continue.
Carrying a bear bias into this would be bad because although the trend never breaks there a enough pullbacks to mean you can easily end up bearish in the worst rally zones. If betting on things like bull traps/spike outs.
These moves above the 4.23 are very common. A sharp doubling of the trend happens above the 4.23 a lot!
If SPX is going to break it and have the common reaction - everything is going vertical. There are lots of things that are at the 4.23 zones now and you can add 100% onto the 4.23 and think it's probable it will get to there and head fake over it a bit. 100% should be a fairly "Safe" target for the 4.23 break.
More speculative ideas would be to look for things that are currently down a lot and draw a fib from the high to the low of those. If we enter into a mania condition where indices are up every week then we might see mania in the hyper speculative things that were in favour previously.
Example;
Not think this sort of thing works on doge?
We have a current 4.23 top and a drop to the 1.27. That's the full predicted correction off a 4.23. It's not always the bottom - but this is the target for a 4.23 drop. Doge may have completed a full 4.23 cycle and be heading into the next. Absolutely possible. If that were true, this would be set to begin to trend very hard.
The consideration has to be what if SPX is here.
It'd be fair to say the odds of this are low but how high would they have to be to make it worth considering?
People act as if the idea of considering massive downside risk means you're scared to take upside risk. Which isn't the case. If anything, I am advocating for more aggressive upside risk betting on the solid trend continuation with tight trailing stops if the breakout is made. Inside the area where we have most chance of a pullback in an uptrend and a wipe out top in a reversal I'm extremely aware of what those risks might look like, but I won't be "Side lined" in a breakout. It means I don't want to broke if the extreme risk thing happens.
Indices could more than double or more than half off the 4.23 decision. We're in a really interesting time.
If we break I plan to trade as if we're going to be up and up every week. Only take long setups. Maybe have a few macro short levels along the way but be mainly a perma bull. If we get the consistent buying weeks I'll expect all dips will be bought and the uptrend will turn into a parabolic run, I'll act accordingly.
And if we start to get massive 10 - 20% weekly candles somewhere over 10,000, I'll suspect that may be blow off action and start to think about fading. By this time we'll be at the next set of important fib levels and I'll use a very similar form of analysis.
If you use any half decent trend strategy with a stop loss you really can't lose money in a typical 4.23 breakout. Even those mindlessly buying with no downside control can run up a lot (although it's questionable if they get to keep it or not).
The fact this is a possible outcome for bears if the resistances fail at this level is something I think macro bears should consider, deeply. Because you don't have to "Be wrong" for this to happen. If your thesis this is all a big stinking bubble - your biggest risk isn't you're wrong, it's you're right! And we're inside the bubble. Not at the end of it. Bubbles FREQUENTLY double into their end points.
This would be a major opportunity for any who embraced it. I do think seeing this happen would be warning things were going to get ugly later but the money to be made in the 5000 - 10,000 run would be exceptional. Accumulating intra day/week with trailing stops would probably see you hit trailing stops about three times most of them you getting in lower and you could end up making 1.000% for the 100% the market went up - and do this while keeping risk capped low since you're always trailing stops to lock in profit.
The opportunity isn't in the price forecast/% as such. It's more in the fact that if it is right it should be evidenced by those periods of extremely consistent trend. These will go on for a long time. Be interrupted. Chop / drop and then resume. The amount you can make in those types of trends if you expect them is off the page. And it'd be easy. There's a few times it'd be tricky and these can be deal with by simply waiting - because later it will be easy.
What makes this all the more important to consider for bears I think is the fact that we could say the highest probability way that SPX makes this move is by dumping under the last low to retest the 4.23 first.
Which would feel very bearish. Very "I should sell the rip" ish. The move that this would make is one I already have marked in as a warning that we could end up going significantly lower. I have to understand all those conditions could fill and even although it all looks exactly like a bear setup, it's actually a 4.23 retest. Very different things for the next swing.
Every major high and low in SPX during the last decade has interacted with the fibs from the 2008 low. They've marked out the highs/lows better than anything else.
We're now at the most important one of those. It hit in 2022 and since then we've been inside the suspense period of it. The 4.23 reaction didn't tell us all that much. A 4.23 spike out doesn't tell us all that much. Both of these things happen in the bull and bear moves. But the actual decision after the attempt to break 4.23 matters a lot.
Whatever happens here is likely to be the most pivotal decision point so far.
S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down.
BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
Up again for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD retested the 4H FVG once more and made a (corrective) move down into the Daily BPR. This was exactly the move I've predicted and I hope you took some value from it.
Now price rejected from the Daily BPR so next week we could see this pair go up again to the higher Daily FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a bullish change in orderflow and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Tr📉 Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Treasuries?
Recent remarks by former President Donald Trump — including threats of 50% tariffs on EU goods and pressure on Apple to manufacture domestically — have sparked sharp red moves across the U.S. markets.
Which leads to a serious question:
👉 Could this be a deliberate strategy to induce fear in the stock market and push both institutional and retail money toward U.S. Treasury bonds?
In a context where the U.S. government needs to issue and absorb massive debt, and where yields are rising to attract buyers, a sell-off in equities might:
💰 Boost demand for Treasuries
🔥 Justify aggressive fiscal or monetary actions
🎯 Reposition political actors as “economic saviors”
I’m not making claims — just thinking out loud...
Are we witnessing a calculated move to reroute capital from equities into U.S. debt, using fear as the vehicle?
What do you think — coincidence… or strategy?
SPY ready to continue its up-trend?!?Now that price has pulled back, we’ve seen a reaction from the daily 20 EMA, forming what resembles a hammer candlestick. This could signal that the uptrend may be ready to resume.
That said, Monday will be key. If the market continues to show strength, it may confirm a continuation to the upside. But if price drops instead, we could be in for a deeper pullback.
⚠️ Remember: just because we’re in an uptrend doesn’t mean the market can’t reverse. The market is unpredictable, and that’s why reacting to price behavior at each point of interest (POI) is so important.
Stay flexible, manage your risk, and trade what the market shows you, not what you expect.
Bear Case Requires Downtrend Action. Strong Bull Bias Otherwise.With the recent breaks the odds are strongly towards 5500 hitting and if that breaks the odds are greatly for far lower hitting but I want to take some time to make sure I am clear on the binary nature of where we are.
The market is in a "Might go up, might go down" spot. Probably won't go sideways for long. I think we're probably going to see strong trends coming out of whatever decision is made here.
First thing I want to really drill in for my bear friends is a sell off from the 86 means nothing at all. Most of the time this is a bear trap. We have broken the first level it may have bottomed so the bias is strongly towards the next ones hitting but having a strong bear bias at this point in historic SPX setup would have led you into a lot of trouble most of the time.
If you fade trends the thing you always have to be worrying about is you've got this "pretty much" right but you're actually one swing too early. Because when that happens, the last swing is always exceptionally strong.
Fading trends is hard because if you're wrong it trends against you and if you're 95% right it spikes against you in the most ruthless of ways. What makes this all the worse is that comes off a correction in the trend so you end up with a bigger zone in which you're wrong. For example if we began to rally here there's now about 4% extra you could be wrong while saying we're still inside the last high.
Any time you're fading a trend and it's going well you should think of this risk. You have to map in the risk of a 161 head fake. These happen a lot. A common thing in blow offs. If you're right about the reversal after this move the short will be easy - but it's not easy to take if you're short bias into it.
Given the broader context of everything, I don't think I favour the 1.61 head-fake being the outcome if we rally. If we rally again then we're seeing prolonged big chart trending action above the macro 4.23 and I've only ever seen trends getting stronger when they can break a 4.23.
If the 1.61 breaks we can end up at the 4.23 - which would be a monster move.
The instance of a 4.23 hitting from a 50% crash are extremely rare. Every instance of it there has been in indices has led to a massive trend decision. All instances of bubbles tend to have clear changes in their momentum when breaking 4.23 fibs.
SPX is already above the 4.23 fib. The bear thesis has it this is a head-fake of that. It needs to be evidenced by a strong rejection of the head-fake.
Earlier I mentioned the tendency of 1.61 head-fakes. This was the most recurring big obvious topping signal I found when looking at crashes. We'd usually dummy drop and then make a 1.61 spike out. This is the rule I use to tell a pending false breakout from a breakout. If it breaks the 1.61, I expect it will get at least very close to the 2.20. If it can not break the 1.61, then there's a strong chance it may be topping.
Our current top is on the 1.61 hit and we're now into a retest of that.
The 1.61 sell off is interesting because if it's a 4.23 reversal we have to be in a head fake above it and if it's a head fake we are looking for a 1.61 spike. These things make the speculative bets into the retest compelling and the pragmatic "What if" planning for a break worth covering. A 1.61 reversal would be expected to be a nasty event.
A 1.61 reversal would take out the last low (by definition, it's just a bit pullback otherwise) and it would do this in a strong consistent selling manner.
Which would be crash like on this timeframe.
But the 1.61 reaction is not in any way prescriptive of a crash at this point. A common pattern is a big pullback from the 1.61 and then when it has been broken again it goes into a strong rally to the following fibs. This can top on a few of the fibs but full extensions in strong trends spike out 4.23.
Inside the context of the overall building of the trend what is happening now would be insignificant overall. Even if dropping all the way to 5500. A full expansion of this would agree with the other fibs we had around the 10,000 level. Furthermore, a doubling period off the breakout of a 4.23 I'd consider to be a highly probable outcome.
If the bear thesis is wrong here it can be wrong in a way that is irrecoverable. A persist bear will get you slaughtered.
The case for a potential bear move here is extremely strong but that does also tend to mean the failure of it would be all the more spectacular. It makes a lot of sense to bet in these zones because there's a high chance you can at least break even on short term reactions and can perhaps make a lot in bigger reversals.
It's pragmatic to be aware of what the larger risks of a reversal would be and how the swings in that would likely form. You have to think about these things ahead of time because otherwise it all happens too fast to really have time to think. Impulse decisions are usually bad.
I have a high degree of confidence in the fibs being able to map out the important levels. My ability to know what that means ... not so much. I may or may not get it right.
What is highly likely to be right based on 100 yrs of swings in SPX is the next major swing will relate to a previous swing in such a way that fib levels make it possible to get a good idea of the major highs/lows of the move. All the ways we can do that from here imply massive moves. If it's not 50% off the high it's 100% from the 4.23 break.
How all this relates to where we are at this moment in time is we have to accept the potential of the bear bet being so wrong that even if there's a crash later it comes back to this price - meaning if it doesn't work here- entirely drop it and aggressively trend follow. If the bear bet is right we have to be inside of a 1.61 head fake of a 4.23.
If we're inside of a head fake is has to sell off very consistently. We crash back to the break level. Price "Isn't meant" to be above that level and when the brief flurry is over it's nothing but selling.
The consistency with which this style of rejection has is uncommon so it was really weird seeing it off the first 1.61 reaction. For the rejection thesis to be valid now the pullback in is we should be in the second trend leg which will complete the return to 4.23. If it's the second trend leg it can't be weaker than the first. The first was extremely consistent.
From my perspective that's the bear bet. It's really specific for me at this point. If the bear thesis is going to be good we're inside a 1.61 head fake. The 1.61 is retesting and when it is rejected for a second time we're into a strong downmove to where the false breakout started.
What it would take from the prices we currently are to turn me into a hyper raving bull that was discussing different bubble moves that may be about to build up is not a lot at this point. It would take very little to convince me to start to buy all the dips with tight stops and it'd not take all that much longer of that working for me to say it was extremely likely all the implied bear risk was behind us and it's all rockets and emojis for the next two years.
I think when it comes to what the next big swings will be in markets it's important to be very objective because it's wild just how easily juxtaposed ideas can make sense. For example, AI. One could make a bulletproof case that we should expect a productivity boom based on AI. Lots of people can do much more. But you can make the inverse forecast that AI will be deflationary. Bringing prices down. Creating job losses. As jobs are lost, less money is spent - especially if things are deflationary because you can buy it cheaper later. Less money being spent is less business income and more jobs lost. Companies that survived would likely main use AI and it's easy to see how all that could end up being bad for markets.
There are a lot of things like could go either way like that and have polarised reactions in the market but something related to AI is almost certainly going to happen. If AI advancements don't stall out rapidly they're going to start making real changes in the things happening in the world - this could easily justify a bubble or it could put prices into a race to zero.
Then there's weird things like what happens when AIs become more and more of the trading volume - surely that's coming ... right? What will they do? It's something you can again make binary extreme cases for. You could make a case that the AIs would notice patterns of a topping market and start to trade in a way that brought about a crash. Or you could argue AIs might start to engage in some form of reward hacking and the way to optimise success is to drive the market vertical.
I don't really see the point in narrative based analysis but if you do a thought experiment where you imagine the market either has crashed or has doubled rapidly it's now easier than it ever has been to find different viable ways you could work backwards to how events complimented that.
It's wise to be agnostic and evidence based while we're at such a big decision level because the potential to be wrong big is so great and the likelihood you'll be bluffed into thinking you're right just at the worst moment is so high. Maybe bulls have had that now. But even if we sell and make a new low, this may turn out to be a second leg of a bear trap and be the low- being wrong from there as a bear would be even worse. Runs to new highs could come before a crash.
If and when the decision is made it should be easy to make money. The 4.23 break would be far better to make money. The trend lasting over a year. A bear break would be trickier with the ups and downs of a bear market but lucrative for the correct strategies. The important thing is being equally acceptant of either outcome - and also accept the reality that neither of the implied outcomes may happen. Which would be a huge anti-climax for me. Really would. If whatever happens next is vanilla, I'd feel a bit cheated.
The 4.23 rejection off a 1.61 spike out would be a very exceptional thing. It should be evidenced by exceptional action.
If the bear trend is not persistent, there's a good chance it's not working. Up-trending through the resistance levels would make the bear case indefensible in my opinion and in the event of a typical 4.23 break make being bear bias into the future certain to fail no matter how good you are at it.
The down move has a lot of proving it to do yet before it crosses from an expected move in a bullish pullback to a real threat of a trend break.
At this point both would look exactly the same - what we see in the coming week is likely to be more telling.
