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Weekly Review: Forex fundamental analysis The week starting Monday 21 July was another week of positive sentiment, the S&P continues to hit all time highs and the VIX remains anchored below 17. The upbeat mood was propelled by an announcement of a tariff deal between the US and Japan. The market now thinks it's likely deals with EUROPE and CHINA will soon follow. All the while, earnings season continues to quietly slip under the radar (it's worth noting the upcoming week does have a plethora of huge companies reporting). An election in JAPAN caused uncertainty, giving the JPY a bout of strength at the beginning of the week. I then found it difficult to decide if the US / JAPAN trade deal would be positive or negative for the JPY, ultimately the overall positive risk tone prevailed and the JPY ended the week softly. It was also a week of two halves for the USD, the interest rate battle between the president and chair Powell continues to cause uncertainty. The FOMC meeting and the upcoming slue of reg flag US data will be very interesting. And could determine the underlying bias for the USD for the rest of the summer. The EUR and GBP were prominent throughout the week, a 'hawkish hold' from the ECB, combined with positive PMI data and hopes of a trade deal, all contributed to positive sentiment for the EUR. On the opposite end of the scale, the GBP ended the week bruised, weakened by another bout of 'soft data'. Which opened the door to potential 'relative fundamental' GBP short trades. Finally, 'fairly hawkish' comments from the RBA'S BULLOCK keeps the AUD high on my to long list. On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. I perhaps was a little bold in thinking the JPY post election strength was overdone, entering an AUD JPY long which stopped out. You might often think it's frustrating when a trade stops out, but then eventually hits the original profit target. Personally, I take the positive view that at least my original bias was proved correct. The week was saved on Friday with a EUR GBP long, post GBP retail sales data and trying to take advantage of the positive EUR sentiment. *As I write, it appears a US /EUR tariff deal is very close, which backs up thoughts of 'risk on' trades to begin the new week. Trade 1: AUD JPY -1 Trade 2: EUR GBP +1.5 Total = +0.5%
SP:SPXLong
by johnelfedforexblog
SPX: Tariffs deal (un)certainty Investors' optimism continued to hold at the U.S. equity markets another week in a row. The S&P 500 posted another weekly winning streak, supported by solid earnings of companies included in the index. The index also reached another all time highest level, with Friday's level of 6.388, gaining around 1,5% for the week. Tech companies were once again main contributors to the surge of the index. Alphabet posted better than expected quarterly results, supporting the surge in share price of 4%. Tesla shares gained 3,5% for the week. The company reported strong vehicle delivery numbers and progress in AI-driven autonomous driving technology. Analysts are noting that 82% of all companies included in the S&P 500 index, that have already reported quarterly results, have beaten the market expectations. Alongside strong earnings reports, recent advancements in U.S. trade negotiations have contributed to market gains. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump announced a significant trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% reciprocal tariff arrangement—an important step toward redefining trade terms between the two nations. Additionally, the U.S. and Indonesia have reportedly reached a framework agreement for a trade deal, reflecting a broader U.S. effort to strengthen and stabilize trade partnerships in Asia. On Friday, President Trump expressed confidence that more trade agreements will be finalized ahead of the August 1 deadline for new tariffs. One of these possible deals involves the European Union. Investors have welcomed these developments, as they help reduce tariff-related uncertainties and ease concerns about escalating trade disputes that could disrupt global supply chains and impact corporate earnings. The week ahead brings a bunch of important macro data for the U.S. as well as the FOMC meeting, where Fed members will discuss a potential change in interest rates. Markets are currently not expecting that the Fed will make a move at this meeting. Certainly, with JOLTs, NFP, PCE data in combination with the FOMC meeting, the week ahead might bring back some higher volatility in the US equity markets, in case of any unexpected news.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Position builders?📈 This One Daily Signal Ignited a 1,000+ Point Rally While everyone else panicked during that April drop… The ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion system quietly printed one word: UP. 💹 That one green tag at the bottom? It wasn’t just a bounce. It was the start of a full-blown trend reversal. ⸻ 🟢 Why Long-Term Traders Love This System: ✅ Signals only appear at extreme structure zones ✅ RSI was buried in oversold with clean divergence ✅ Daily timeframe = position-size confidence ✅ No need to overtrade — just buy the dip and hold ✅ Over 1,000+ points and still running… ⸻ This is what we call “High Conviction Buying.” You didn’t need to time the top. You just needed to trust a clean, unemotional signal at the bottom. ⸻ 💬 DM “SP500 LONG” to see how this could’ve been on your chart 📲 Follow for more real, repeatable swing & position trade setups 🔒 Daily edge. Weekly confirmation. Monthly rewards. Because sometimes… 📉 The scariest candles… 🔥 Become the most profitable trades.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by ElfieTrader
Third quarter and something we didn’t expectso I’ve been watching the markets for a while and honestly this new admin is doing something that many didn’t saw coming. it's not even a full year yet, we’re still on Q3, but the impact on the economy is starting to show. what really gets my attention is the tariff collection, it’s been really high and from what I see it’s even generating some kind of surplus in certain areas. at first I thought this was going to slow down the market or create pressure, but the opposite happened, the stock market has been hitting all time highs, especially in tech and defense sectors. inflation didn’t spike like people was saying, that calmed down many investors and the flow of money is pretty obvious. i’m not an expert or nothing but this first months looks like there’s a real direction and the money is moving in a positive way. still need to see how this year closes but if it stays like this, could be one of the strongest starts for a president in a long time. just wanted to share my thoughts, what you guys think?
FRED:SP500
by perezliz37
SPX More upside potentialI've revised my previous count based on recent price action. I now see a potential minor Wave 4 (of Intermediate Wave 5) forming around the 6,500 level. This could present a reasonable opportunity to take some % profits, (for the cautious or short term traders) though I recommend being prepared to re-enter, as I still believe we are ultimately headed toward the 6,650–6,720 range before a larger-scale correction sets in. Taking some profits around 6,500 may be a prudent move, or alternatively, you can continue holding while adjusting your trailing stops accordingly. Generally and in most cases its best to exhaust you bullish counts in Elliot . On the right hand side i am showing SPX/ DXY which is typically a more accurate and discernable wave pattern then the SPX alone. FYI
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by wolffarchitecture
SPX 0DTE TRADE IDEA – JULY 25, 2025 ⚠️ SPX 0DTE TRADE IDEA – JULY 25, 2025 ⚠️ 🔻 Bearish Bias with Weak Volume – Max Pain Looming at 6325 ⸻ 📊 Quick Market Snapshot: • 💥 Price below VWAP • 🧊 Weak Volume • 📉 Max Pain @ 6325 = downside pressure • ⚖️ Mixed Options Flow = no clear bullish conviction ⸻ 🤖 Model Breakdown: • Grok/xAI: ❌ No trade – weak momentum • Claude/Anthropic: ✅ Bearish lean, favors PUTS near highs • Gemini: 🟡 Slightly bullish bias, BUT agrees on caution • Llama: ⚪ Neutral → No action • DeepSeek: ❌ Bearish → No trade ⸻ 📌 TRADE IDEA: 🎯 SPX 6365 PUT (0DTE) 💵 Entry Price: $0.90 🎯 Profit Target: $1.80 (💥 2x return) 🛑 Stop Loss: $0.45 📆 Expires: Today 🕒 Exit by: 3:45 PM 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: OPEN ⸻ ⚠️ Risk Flags: • Low volume = fragile conviction • Possible reversal if SPX breaks above session highs • Max pain magnet at 6325 could limit gains or induce a bounce ⸻ 🧠 Strategy: Scalp it quick. Get in early. Exit before the gamma games explode into close. 📈 Like this setup? Drop a 🔽 if you’re playing puts today! #SPX #0DTE #PutOptions #OptionsTrading #MaxPain #SPY #MarketGamma #TradingSetup
SP:SPXShort
by quantsignals
FUNDAMENTALS: THE WEEK OF TRUTH IS COMING!This is a high-stakes, high-pressure week for markets as the final days of July approach. Between Wednesday, July 30, and Friday, August 1, all the market-moving fundamentals are concentrated in a three-day window. It’s a stress test for the U.S. equity market: either it extends its bullish trend, or it enters a much-needed consolidation phase. Three days. No more. Catalysts are so tightly packed they could shake even the steadiest traders. We’re looking at a full-spectrum stress test—monetary, economic, and geopolitical. Why so crucial? Because every major macro driver is converging in an ultra-condensed timeframe: the trade deal deadline with U.S. partners, the Fed’s policy decision, GAFAM earnings, PCE inflation, the NFP jobs report, Q2 GDP figures, and key technical barometers—all as we enter the seasonally weaker August-September period. 1) Wednesday, July 30 – The Monetary Moment of Truth The week opens with a critical event: the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. It’s not just about rates, but forward guidance. The market stands at a crossroads. Either the Fed signals a dovish pivot for late 2025, and risk appetite returns—or it delays action, and the S&P 500, already stretched (Shiller PE Ratio back to end-2021 levels), enters a correction. At the same time, GAFAM kick off their earnings season. U.S. tech remains the market’s beating heart. If these giants disappoint, the sector will drag down the entire market. Remember, tech accounts for 35% of the S&P 500’s weight. 2) Thursday, July 31 – PCE Inflation Decides the Direction Next up is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric: core PCE. A critical indicator. If inflation ticks up, the autumn rate-cut narrative falls apart. Add in the second estimate of Q2 GDP and earnings from the next GAFAM batch, and Thursday becomes a pivotal day for the S&P 500. The key question: will core PCE inflation rebound, possibly influenced by tariff impacts? 3) Friday, August 1 – The Verdict: NFP and Trade Talks NFP jobs report + trade negotiation deadline = explosive combo. By Friday, markets will have priced in the Fed, inflation, and earnings. What’s left? U.S. labor. Weak numbers could revive recession fears. Strong ones might push back the Fed’s easing timeline. Also on the radar: trade talks. The August 1 deadline could spike volatility. And let’s not forget the China-specific deadline on Tuesday, August 12. Conclusion: No Room for “TACO” There’s no margin for error. No room for “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out). This market must deliver across the board—or the current overvaluation will be left with no safety net. The July 30 week is a true fundamental stress test. And the consequences will be swift. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
Can the S&P 500's Ascent Continue?The S&P 500 recently achieved unprecedented highs, reflecting a multifaceted market surge. This remarkable performance stems primarily from a robust corporate earnings season. A significant majority of S&P 500 companies surpassed earnings expectations, indicating strong underlying financial health. The Communication Services and Information Technology sectors, in particular, demonstrated impressive growth, reinforcing investor confidence in the broader market's strength. Geopolitical and geostrategic developments have also played a crucial role in bolstering market sentiment. Recent "massive" trade agreements, notably with Japan and a framework deal with Indonesia, have introduced greater predictability and positive economic exchanges. These deals, characterized by reciprocal tariffs and substantial investment commitments, have eased global trade tensions and fostered a more stable international economic environment, directly contributing to market optimism. Ongoing progress in trade discussions with the European Union further supports this positive trend. Furthermore, resilient macroeconomic indicators underscore the market's upward trajectory. Despite a recent dip in existing home sales, key data points like stable interest rates, decreasing unemployment claims, and a rising manufacturing PMI collectively suggest an enduring economic strength. While technology and high-tech sectors, driven by AI advancements and strong earnings from industry leaders like Alphabet, remain primary growth engines, some segments, such as auto-related chipmakers, face challenges. The S&P 500's climb is a testament to the powerful confluence of strong corporate performance, favorable geopolitical shifts, and a resilient economic backdrop. While the immediate rally wasn't directly driven by recent cybersecurity events, scientific breakthroughs, or patent analyses, these factors remain critical for long-term market stability and innovation. Investors continue to monitor these evolving dynamics to gauge the sustainability of the current market momentum.
SP:SPXLong
by UDIS_View
Quarterly Candle AnalysisQuarterly candle data going back to 1928 was exported and analyzed in Excel . The purpose of doing so was to identify candles comparable to the candle we had in Q2 of 2025 (last quarter) in terms of scale and form. Two properties of the candles were considered: 1. Candle Length as a % of Close (Column L) 2. Lower Wick as a % of Close minus Upper Wick as a % of Close (Column R) The product of these properties (Column S) was considered as the primary quantitative metric for this analysis. The two quarters determined to be most similar based on having green candles with forms similar to Q2 2025 were as follows: Q4 1998 Q1 2016 Both quarters were followed by at least 4 more bullish quarters, hence, the result of this analysis is bullish, as should be expected with such a bullish candle.
SP:SPXLong
by Skipper86
S&P500 This is why every CORRECTION is a GIFT.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been steadily rising since the April bottom to new All Time Highs (ATH). On the grand 100 year scale, the February - March tariff fueled correction, has been nothing significant. The last true technical correction has been the 2022 Inflation Crisis because it touched, and instantly rebounded on, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). This is not the first time we bring forward our multi-decade perspective on stock and in particular this chart. But it serves well, keeping us into the meaningful long-term outlook of the market. This suggests that since the Great Depression and the first signs of recovery after the 1935 - 1941 Bear Cycle, the market has entered a multi-decade Channel Up, which is divided into long-term aggressive expansion periods (Bull Cycles) and shorter term depressions (Bear Cycles). During a Bull Cycle, every test of the 1M MA50 is a instant cyclical buy opportunity and in fact that isn't presented very often. During a Bear Cycle, the market makes an initial aggressive correction below the 1M MA50, turns increasingly volatile for 5-7 years, trading sideways within the Channel Up with its second peak resulting into a 2nd correction that eventually breaks below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). That is what we call a 'generational buy opportunity' as in the past 80 years, it has only been taken place 2 times. Right now (again this is not something we mention for the first time), the market is at the start of the A.I. Bubble, with incredibly strong similarities with the Internet Bubble of the 1990s. In fact, relative to the Internet Bubble, it appears that we are on a stage similar to 1993 - 1994, before the market turned parabolic to the eventual Dotcom Bust of 2000. As a result, from a technical perspective, every 'small' correction such as the one we had this year, is a blessing in disguise (buy opportunity). As the index grew by 5 times during the Internet Bubble (300 to 1500), it is also very possible to see it approach this feat going from roughly 3500 (late 2022) to 14000 (by late 2032) and touch the top of the multi-decade Channel Up. Are you willing to miss out on this generational wealth creation opportunity? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
US500 - Can S&P Pass Critical Ratio / Liquidity ZoneS&P (Pepperstone CFD) Price has popped above the 1.618 extension, which is a key ratio zone. A bearish whipsaw in this area could be dangerous. However, if price continues to push through this level, it signals that S&P is entering a very bullish phase. The area above prior ATH resistance holds high liquidity. If price moves beyond this ratio band, it will signal that a reversal in this zone is unlikely. That said, if it’s still in this band when Trump tariffs are reinstated potentially on 1 August, then this is looking dangerous 🧐. (Fib trendlines lower in the chart). This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by dRends35
4
Before the perma-bulls go bonkers… Before the perma-bulls go bonkers… no, I’m not calling for a crash or bear market (yet). But longer this bull runs, greater the odds of mean reversion. Further we drift from 2009 without tagging the 300-month MA, more likely a sideways decade begins. This will happen again. You can't say we are "early" in the bull market. That simply is not true. Early is in the few years after the 2009 retouch of that very long term moving average. Can the indices still go up? Of course. But understand where you are in the cycle.
SP:SPX
by Badcharts
S&P500 push to new ATH? Key Developments: AI Drives Earnings Momentum Alphabet reported strong results, but flagged surging AI infrastructure costs, signaling increased capex ahead. SK Hynix posted record earnings and committed to expanding AI-related investments, reinforcing the sector’s critical growth role. Investor sentiment remains AI-positive, with capital rotation favoring tech and semiconductors despite margin compression risks. Banking Sector Boosted by Tariff-Driven Volatility Deutsche Bank’s FIC (Fixed Income & Currencies) trading revenue jumped 11% to €2.28B, its best Q2 since 2007, aided by global trade uncertainty. BNP Paribas also beat earnings estimates, continuing the strong showing from European banks amid market volatility. Trade & Tariff Watch The EU and US are nearing a deal on a 15% standard tariff rate, potentially stabilizing trade flows and market pricing. Trump’s broader reciprocal tariff push remains in focus, especially after the US-Japan deal. Investors are watching for signs of escalation or resolution with other partners like the EU and Canada. Fed in the Political Spotlight Trump visited the Fed’s construction site, criticizing costs and maintaining pressure on Chair Jerome Powell. Speculation about Fed leadership changes and political interference is unsettling, though markets have largely shrugged this off for now. Meanwhile, House Republicans are drafting a follow-up tax-and-spending plan, which could shape future fiscal policy and market expectations. Conclusion: S&P 500 Trading Outlook The S&P 500 remains buoyed by strong earnings, particularly from AI-linked sectors and financials, while geopolitical risks and tariff volatility are being absorbed as catalysts for trading profits rather than panic. Bullish factors: Strong corporate earnings (Alphabet, SK Hynix, Deutsche Bank), potential trade de-escalation (EU-US tariff deal), and AI momentum. Risks to monitor: Rising AI capex (impact on margins), political tension around the Fed, and tariff uncertainty. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6387 Resistance Level 2: 6457 Resistance Level 3: 6502 Support Level 1: 6272 Support Level 2: 6224 Support Level 3: 6156 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
ECB on the agenda: The ECB is on the agenda today. I don't envision a particularly volatile event, although a continuation of the 'limited further cuts narrative' should see the EUR supported, particularly given growing thoughts of a US / EUR trade deal. All in all, with the S&P still climbing, I continue to hold the view that 'risk on' trades are viable, especially since the announcement of the US / JAPAN trade deal. It's just a case of choosing whether to short the JPY or USD. In other news, 'soft' SERVICE PMI data from the UK puts a little more pressure on the BOE to cut rates, arguably creating a GBP short 'catalyst' trade for anyone at the charts in that moment. Also, a relatively hawkish speech from the RBA'S BULLOCK, keeps the AUD high on my 'to long list'.
SP:SPXLong
by johnelfedforexblog