The trend after the surge in crude oil prices
💡Message Strategy
Core economic data and event-driven
The US employment report boosted expectations of rate cuts. According to the US Department of Labor, the unemployment rate stabilized at 4.2% in May, and 139,000 new non-farm jobs were added (the previous value was revised down). Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, pointed out: "The employment data is 'just right', neither too hot nor too cold, but it strengthens the possibility of the Fed's rate cut." The expectation of a rate cut is seen as a potential positive for the crude oil market, as loose policies may stimulate economic recovery and boost oil demand.
OPEC+ moderately increased production to balance market expectations. OPEC+ reached an agreement on Saturday to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, which is lower than Saudi Arabia's proposal, but in line with market expectations. HSBC analysts believe: "Summer oil demand will peak in July-August, matching the increase in OPEC+ supply, and the market supply and demand will tend to balance in the second and third quarters." The decision did not suppress oil prices, but instead eased concerns about oversupply.
📊Technical aspects
WTI crude oil: closed at $64.73 per barrel on Friday, up 2.21% on the day and 6.55% this week. It is about to reach our strategic target of 65.00. When everyone is looking at the decline of crude oil, our strategy is firmly on the rise, and the result is consistent with our direction.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart of US crude oil (WTI) shows that the price is running in a short-term rising channel, with support at around $63, while the upper resistance is concentrated in the $64.50 area. In recent trading days, WTI has received support at the 60-day moving average and successfully broke through the 20-day moving average, indicating that the short-term bullish momentum is gradually increasing.
At the same time, the MACD indicator shows a golden cross signal, and the momentum column continues to expand, indicating that the price is expected to further test the $65 mark. If the resistance level can be effectively broken, the next target may be $67.
💰 Strategy Package
Long Position: 63.50-64.00
