SPX500 Holds Steady as Markets Eye US-China Trade Developments SPX500 Overview
U.S. stock futures were little changed on Tuesday as investors awaited key developments from the U.S.-China trade talks underway in London.
Technical Outlook (4H Chart):
The index is experiencing cautious movement amid ongoing tariff tensions and geopolitical uncertainties.
Bullish Scenario:
A sustained 4H close above 6030 could confirm bullish momentum, with upside targets at 6066 and 6098, potentially extending toward a new all-time high (ATH).
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price remains below 6010, bearish momentum may persist, targeting the support levels at 5966, followed by 5938 and 5902.
Support: 5966 • 5938 • 5902
Resistance: 6066 • 6098
SPXM trade ideas
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Weekly TF – 2025
Chart Context:
Tools Used: 3 Fibonacci Tools:
1. One **Fibonacci retracement** (from ATH to bottom)
2. Two **Trend-Based Fibonacci Extensions**
* Key Levels and Zones:
* **Support Zone** (Fib Confluence): \~4,820–5,100
* **Support Area (shallow pullback)**: \~5,500–5,600
* **Resistance & TP Zones:**
* TP1: **6,450** (Fib confluence & -61.8%)
* TP2: **6,840** (-27%)
* TP3: **7,450–7,760** (Major Confluence)
Technical Observations:
* SPX is approaching a **critical resistance** near previous ATH (\~6,128) with projected upward trajectory.
* The **green dashed path** suggests a rally continuation from current \~6,000 levels to TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840), and eventually TP3 (\~7,450–7,760), IF no major macro shock hits.
* The **purple dotted path** suggests a potential retracement first to \~5,600 (shallow correction) or deeper into \~5,120 or even 4,820 zone before continuing the bullish rally.
* The major support zone around **4,820–5,120** includes key Fib retracement levels (38.2% and 61.8%) from both extensions and historical breakout levels.
Fundamental Context:
* US economy shows **resilience** amid soft-landing narrative, though inflation remains sticky.
* The **Federal Reserve** is expected to cut rates in **Q3–Q4 2025**, boosting equity valuations.
* Liquidity expansion and dovish outlook support risk assets, including **equities and crypto**.
* However, **AI-driven tech rally** may be overstretched; a correction could follow earnings disappointments or macro surprises (e.g., jobs or CPI shocks).
Narrative Bias & Scenarios:
**Scenario 1 – Correction Before Rally (Purple Path)**
* If SPX faces macro pushback (e.g., high CPI, hawkish Fed), expect retracement to:
* 5,600 = Fib -23.6% zone
* 5,120–4,820 = Major Fib Confluence Zone
* These would act as **accumulation zones**, setting up next leg up toward TP1 and beyond.
* **Effect on Gold**: May rise temporarily due to risk-off move.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Could stall or correct, especially altcoins.
**Scenario 2 – Straight Rally (Green Path)**
* If Fed confirms cuts and macro remains soft:
* SPX breaks ATH (\~6,128)
* Hits TP1 (\~6,450), TP2 (\~6,840)
* Eventually reaches confluence at **TP3 (7,450–7,760)**
* **Effect on Gold**: May struggle; investor preference for equities.
* **Effect on Crypto**: Strong risk-on appetite, altseason continuation.
Indicators Used:
* 3 Fibonacci levels (retracement + 2 extensions)
* Trendlines (macro and local)
* Confluence mapping
Philosophical/Narrative Layer:
This phase of the market resembles a test of collective confidence. Equity markets nearing ATHs while monetary easing begins reflect a fragile optimism. The Fibonacci levels act as narrative checkpoints — psychological as much as mathematical. Will we rally on faith or fall for rebalancing?
Bias & Strategy Implication:
Bias: Bullish with caution
* Strategy:
* Await **confirmation breakout >6,128** for fresh long entries
* Accumulate on dips in the **5,100–5,500** zone if correction unfolds
* Use **TP1, TP2, TP3** as staged exits
Related Reference Charts:
* BTC.D Analysis – Bearish Bias:
* TOTAL:Bullish Bias
*TOTAL3 – Bullish Bias:
* US10Y Yield – Falling Bias Impact:https://tradingview.sweetlogin.com/chart/US10Y/45w6qkWl-US10Y-10-Year-Treasury-Yield-Weekly-TF-2025/
S&P500: Gearing up for a push to 6,100S&P500 is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.611, MACD = 85.830, ADX = 19.630) as it has been trading inside a Channel Up for over a month. Right now it is halfway through the new bullish wave. We expect it to rise by at least +4.40%, same as the previous one. Stay bullish as long as the 4H MA50 holds, TP = 6,100.
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SPX 500 to 17,000 in 7 years.This chart represents the S&P 500, showcasing its performance over time, including quarterly data.
It captures everything.
Every recession.
Every war.
Every president.
Every variation of the monetary base as superpowers rise and fall.
Whenever I hear a bear in the stock market declare that THE TOP has been reached, and we are about to CRASH -50% to -90%
I find myself drawn to these comprehensive long term charts.
If the bulls are genuinely in control and we have merely undergone an intermediate-term correction, then the long-term bull market that commenced at the 2009 low remains robust, with many more years ahead.
The chart also illustrates that the three significant bull market phases typically last around 18-20 years following a major breakout.
And they yield a comparable number of X's.
It's all quite fascinating, if you ask me.
See you in the future!
The Second Blow-Offanyone casually looking at long-term charts can see in recent history on the monthly scale one of the most violent blow-off tops started In 1995-2000, running those 5 years up 240%. interestingly, my target and the number of years it takes to reach since the post-covid lows is almost the same
SPX500 – Volatile Week Ahead as Trade Talks and CPI LoomSPX500 | Overview
Fundamental Insight:
S&P 500 futures edged lower early Monday as traders brace for a high-impact week.
Key events include:
- US-China trade talks in London (Monday)
- U.S. inflation data (CPI) expected midweek (Wednesday)
Markets are cautious, awaiting clarity from both geopolitical developments and macroeconomic indicators, which could trigger strong directional moves.
Technical Outlook:
The price appears to be entering a correction phase, with the potential to drop toward 5966.
A confirmed break below 5966 may extend the bearish trend toward 5938 and 5902.
However, a break above 6030 would invalidate the bearish scenario and could trigger a bullish continuation toward 6098 and potentially a new all-time high (ATH).
Pivot Line: 6010
Support Levels: 5966, 5938, 5902
Resistance Levels: 6030, 6098
**** Market Trading Strategy Idea SP500 ***Key Chart & Economic Insights:
- Current Market Position
- The S&P 500 is around $6000, showing positive momentum (+1.03%).
- Upward trend visible, indicating strong buying interest.
- Economic tailwinds support continued growth.
- Projected Price Movements
- 6800 USD: Key resistance level where selling pressure could emerge.
- Market pullback: A correction after 6800 may create a buyback opportunity.
- Recovery phase: Expected rebound toward 7000-7500 USD, another selling position.
- Economic Context: U.S. Manufacturing Boom & GDP Growth
- The United States is ramping up domestic production, boosting industrial output and reshoring manufacturing.
- This shift is fueling GDP growth, strengthening economic fundamentals and potentially sustaining bullish market momentum.
- Strong consumer spending & investment could drive stocks higher, aligning with the planned trade strategy.
Risk Management & Optimization:
- Entry & Exit Precision: Define stop-loss and take-profit levels.
- Momentum Confirmation: Ensure price action validates expected moves.
- Economic Indicators: Watch manufacturing & GDP data for trend validation.
If you want to refine this analysis or explore other scenarios, I'm here to dive deeper into key points! 🚀 Subscribe! TSXGanG
I hold a CCVM and MNC (Certificate of Competence to become a securities broker anywhere in Canada) and have been working as a trader for five years.
It’s a pleasure for me to help people optimize their trading strategies and make informed financial market decisions.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 6, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has demonstrated an upward trajectory during this week's trading session, surpassing the established Outer Index Rally level of 5955 and the Key Resistance level of 5965. Currently, the index is exhibiting a bullish trend, with a focus on the Outer Index Dip target, set at 6073. Furthermore, additional critical levels have been identified, including Key Resistance at 6150 and the Next Outer Index Rally at 6235. Conversely, there is a potential decline in index prices from the current level or upon completion of the Outer Index Dip 6073, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5940, with the possibility of extending the pullback to the Mean Support at 5888.
Remaining bullish on SPX and how I think through my chartsVideo Recap: The Zoomed Out View
Weekly moving averages are reordering and turning up
The weekly chart shows that the 10EMA and 20EMA have now crossed the 50SMA and are turning up. That reordering adds strength to the broader trend. This past week, the index reclaimed 6,000, which is a key psychological level. And we also saw price bounce off the uptrend line drawn from the April low, showing buyers are still defending key areas of support.
Daily pullback found support
The daily chart gave us a pullback the Friday before last, but it held right at a confluence of support (the 20EMA and 200SMA), along with a horizontal level drawn from the weekly timeframe.
Digestion periods can shake you out if you’re too zoomed in
The last few weeks have been a reminder that chop can test your patience and your plan. We didn’t break trend, we just pulled back to support. But if you’re too zoomed in, it can feel like everything is shifting. That’s when stops get hit early, trades get closed prematurely, and new positions get put on for the wrong reasons. In reality, this was just a normal digestion after a strong move. And when in doubt, zooming out brings the clarity back.
Trendlines and levels are guides, not absolutes
There were a few moments in my chart review this week where I caught myself trying to make lines matter more than they do. But these tools (trendlines, moving averages, support and resistance) only matter in the context of what price is doing around them. Structure tells the real story. One line getting hit or crossed doesn’t mean the whole thesis breaks down. What matters is whether buyers step in, whether trend resumes, and whether your trade idea still fits your system.
So what now? Here’s what I’ll be watching this week:
We’re holding above all major MAs.
If we push through the February all-time high, that can shift sentiment, especially for retail traders who may see that as a signal that “we’re in the clear.”
If we stall below the ATH, that wouldn’t be a problem by itself, but I’d watch how price behaves...ie are we pulling back constructively or losing key levels?
I’m not leaning bearish and won't be unless we start closing below 5,800 (200SMA) and definitely if we can't hold the rising 50SMA. (My second scenario after my bullish one is sideways, so bearish for me is out for now.)
When the market starts moving, the best thing you can do is trust your prep, lean into your plan, and zoom out when things get noisy. The bigger picture hasn’t changed.
Come on SPX! Let's cross back over 6,000Stop playing with me SPX. So far this week, we've seen a slowwww drift up. Ok, Monday and Tuesday did put in some solid bars, but now here we are, babying this 6,000 psychological area.
Below is my write up from Sunday. While I always state different scenarios, I've been leaning bullish...though some of my individual stock plays have retested my stop levels this week. (They have been a bit more sideways)
SPX (written Sunday 06/01/25)
Still above key weekly MAs, trend remains intact
The weekly chart still shows an uptrend. We're above the 10EMA, 20EMA, and 50SMA, and those moving averages are turning up. So while the pace of the uptrend has slowed, the broader structure hasn't broken down. This past week was a digestion of the recent April and early May run, and so far, not an unraveling of it.
Friday's dip was likely just a shakeout.
Friday gave us a candle that flushed below the daily 20EMA then quickly reversed. That kind of action often traps early shorts and clears out weaker long hands…a classic shakeout. If this theory holds, we should see strength early next week. But if we break below the 5750-5725 area, that thesis gets invalidated. At that point, I'd treat the move as something more structurally weak, not just a pullback.
Confluence zone still holding for now
We're sitting right on a layered area of support above all moving averages, and a horizontal support and resistance level from earlier this year. So far, it has held. If it continues to hold, it gives the index a platform to try the upside again.
Trendlines matter, but not more than the overall structure
I was asked about trendlines this week, and it was a good reminder to step back and recognize how I was sharing my use of them. Trendlines are helpful, but they’re just one part of the picture. Same goes for moving averages, volume, and other tools. They only hold weight relative to the context. In a choppy, indecisive market, over-focusing on any single signal can do more harm than good. I'm aiming to keep my analysis well-rounded, zoomed out, and centered on structure.
What would confirm the upside?
A clean move back above 6,000 and a push through the February all-time high would help strengthen the case for continued upside. Not just because it’s a technical level, but because it’s psychological too. If we’re breaking out into new highs, especially after the chop and hesitation of the last few weeks, that’s when retail traders tend to feel like we’re “in the clear.” That can bring in more participation, more confidence, and more momentum. Ideally, we’d see a higher low hold on any dips, and then a strong push through 6,000 with follow-through, not just a quick tag and pullback. That kind of behavior would tell me buyers are stepping in with conviction again.
What would shift the bias more bearish?
A breakdown and hold below 5725 (not just a quick flush) would suggest deeper downside potential. From there, 5600 (around the daily 50SMA) becomes the next level I’d watch for support. But so far, I’m not leaning toward this as the main scenario.
What do you all see? Will we break 6,000 and get an increase in momentum?
SPX500 weekly overviewThis 6,136.54 calculated by 4821.59 and 3506.64 and worked really well as top of the SPX500!
Expect the zone around that line! All zones could be chosen to long the instrument.
4821.59 * 2 - 3506.64 = 6,136.54
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
Morning market ideasSPX could be finished overnight but the cash session may try to equal the overnight high. Gold is coming up to heavy resistance. Oil Looks to be heading towards 66 and maybe more. BTC looks like it may drop again but right now it's at support. Natural Gas is likely going to drop.
Smart Money Levels Spotted on SPX500USD – Massive Sell Zone Major Supply Zone (Resistance): 🔵 6,000 – 6,050
Price is currently sitting right inside a well-defined supply zone, where smart money previously sold off heavily back in December.
Intermediate Support: 🔵 5,436
A clear structural level where price previously broke down from and retested in April.
Major Demand Zone (Support): 🟠 4,900 – 5,000
Price reacted aggressively from this zone during the massive April sell-off, suggesting strong institutional interest.
---
🧭 Current Price Action:
SPX500USD is currently trading at 6,004, right at the supply zone marked by the blue shaded area. Price has aggressively rallied from the 4,900 demand zone in April and is now testing this critical resistance level for the first time since the major drop.
📌 Notice the tight consolidation and rejection wicks from this area in the past. This could signal a potential reversal or a breakout trap!
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⚠️ Bearish Signals to Consider:
🔻 Risk of Rejection: With price inside a supply zone and momentum slowing, there’s a high probability of a rejection.
🔻 Double Top Structure: Previous highs around 6,050 could form a double top, making this a textbook reversal opportunity.
🔻 Downside Targets:
📍 First target: 5,436 (previous support & breakout level)
📍 Second target: 4,900–4,950 (major demand zone & value area)
---
🧠 Smart Money Perspective:
This setup aligns perfectly with institutional trading logic:
Sell high in supply zones
Buy low in demand zones
Volume Profile and LuxAlgo’s visible range confirm these key levels where institutions are most likely to act.
---
🧨 Trading Plan:
🚫 No buying in the supply zone
📉 Short entries if rejection confirms (look for bearish engulfing / lower high on lower timeframes)
🎯 Target 1: 5,436
🎯 Target 2: 4,900–4,950
🛡️ Stop Loss: Above 6,050 (fake breakout zone)
---
📊 Bonus Tip:
Watch how price behaves around FOMC and CPI news – liquidity grabs often happen right before key macro data, especially near supply zones. Be patient!
---
💬 Let’s Discuss:
Do you see a breakout or a rejection from here?
Comment below if you're bullish or bearish on SPX500USD! 👇
Don't forget to like & follow if you find this breakdown helpful 💡
#SP500 #SPX500USD #SmartMoney #SupplyAndDemand #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #LuxAlgo #TradingSetup #SwingTrade #BearishReversal
S&P500 Short: Ending DiagonalHi all, over here, I presented a cleaned-up chart of the EW counts for S&P500 and gave 2 entry points for shorting. The most important points are here:
1. 5th wave completion (or completing)
2. Ending Diagonal: will follow a sharp move down.
Alternatively, you can wait for a breakdown of the lower trendline to short.
Good luck!
SPX is overheated, a correction is necessary📉 Market Update: No, It Has Nothing to Do with Trump
This move has nothing to do with Trump’s dramatic announcements. The reality is simple: the MACD on the daily chart is overheated, and a healthy correction is needed — likely down to the 5,520 level — before resuming the uptrend.
Now, does it surprise anyone that Trump acts like a PR agent for his investors? He always seems to drop “bad news” at the exact moment the charts call for a pullback. My guess? They're shorting right now.
🪙 Bitcoin Stalling
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is also losing momentum, and looks like it’s in need of a short-term correction as well. This suggests a week of consolidation ahead for the whole crypto market.
But let’s be clear:
🚀 The Bull Market Is Not Over
The weekly charts remain very bullish, and this trend could last another 4–6 months. The macro bullish structure for crypto remains intact.
However, in TradFi, there are cracks:
🔻 20-year bonds sold at 5.1% — a major recession red flag
💸 Tariffs are putting pressure on global trade
📉 The entire traditional market is starting to de-risk
🔮 What to Expect
Short-term correction to ~5,518 (first bottom target)
A possible rebound after healthy consolidation
A continued uptrend in crypto unless key support breaks
I’ll publish a new update when conditions change.
📌 Follow me to stay ahead of the market. And as always: DYOR.
#CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoCorrection #BullishTrend #RecessionWarning #TradFi #Altcoins #BTC #MarketUpdate #TrumpEffect #DYOR
SPX: chasing the 6KThe jobs data were in the spotlight of markets during the previous week. The Non-farm payrolls in May with 139K new jobs came as better than market anticipated, which supported the optimistic mood of investors. The S&P 500 managed to return to the levels modestly above the 6K level. Tech companies were again in the spotlight of investors. In this sense, the magnificent 7 drove the market to the higher grounds. In the Friday trading session, NVDA gained 1,2%, AMZN was up by 2,7%, while Tesla gained 3,7%. It should be noted that Tesla had quite a turbulent week. Its shares first dropped by 14% at the beginning of the week, after its CEO commented negatively on a current policy of the US President Trump. Certainly, this came as a surprise for markets, considering Musk's strong support for President Trump, both during the electoral campaign and his presidency.
Current optimism might be slowed down with forthcoming inflation data. Namely, a large number of economists are pointing to potential for the economic slowdown and higher inflation induced by implemented trade tariffs by the US Administration. In this sense, there is a probability that higher volatility of the index might continue in the coming period, as markets will try to understand what impact future growth and earnings will have on any new news on trade tariffs. It has been announced that further talks between China and US officials on trade tariffs will be held next week in London. This event will be closely monitored by investors.