Gold’s in the Chop Shop. Tokyo’s Got the KeysGold has entered a key decision zone ahead of Tokyo. After a controlled retracement off the 3332 swing high, price has now compressed into a high-probability confluence pocket:
- 50% Fibonacci retracement (3316.3)
- VWAP acting as dynamic support (~3317)
- Trend line support holding from prior structure lows
- Compression below 3332.1 the breakout gate
If Tokyo volume engages, this could trigger a clean structural breakout into higher liquidity zones.
Primary Entry:
- Trigger: 15M or 1H candle close above 3332.1
- Entry Range: 3333.0 – 3334.5 on retest confirmation
- Stop Loss: 3312 (below trend line + VWAP)
Aggressive Entry (Mean Reversion):
- Bounce off VWAP/Fib zone (3316–3317.5) with bullish reaction
- Tighter SL: 3312–3314
- Lower R:R, but better pricing
Target Zones:
- TP1 3340 Minor resistance & round number
- TP2 3365 Prior breakdown zone / supply
- TP3 3390–3400 Extended Tokyo move + trend reversal territory
If I'm Wrong:
A breakdown below 3312 invalidates the bullish thesis. That would signal VWAP failure, trend line break, and potential reversion to 3300 or lower.
Technical Confluence Checklist:
- VWAP support holding - Complete
- 50% Fib bounce attempt - Complete
- EMAs compressing for potential crossover - Complete
- Clean trend line structure intact - Complete
- Low volume chop zone between 3312–3332 - Caution
Tokyo often fakes the initial move. Ideal trigger confirmation comes 30–60 mins after Tokyo open, once liquidity builds. Watch for manipulation wicks around VWAP before committing.
This is a classic quant compression setup, price is coiled into structure, and all major intraday tools align. If we see a clean move above 3332 with volume, the breakout could unfold fast. But lose VWAP and trend line, and the bias flips instantly.
Stay reactive, not predictive. Let price prove direction.
