dxy for short 30m*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
USDINDEX trade ideas
DOLLAR INDEXThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). It serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s global strength and is influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates, trade flows, and inflation expectations.
10 years bond yield Correlations with DXY
1. 10-Year Bond Yield
Positive Correlation: The DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields generally move in the same direction. Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, increasing demand for dollars and strengthening the DXY.
Current 10-Year Yield (June 12, 2025): 4.36%, down slightly from 4.41% the previous day but up 1.16% year-over-year.
2. Bond Price
Inverse Relationship with Yields: Bond prices fall when yields rise (and vice versa). Since DXY and yields are positively correlated, the dollar tends to strengthen when bond prices decline.
3. Interest Rates
Direct Link: Higher U.S. interest rates increase the dollar’s appeal as investors seek higher returns, boosting DXY. Conversely, rate cuts weaken the dollar.
Example: The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2023–2024 contributed to DXY strength, while recent rate-cut expectations have moderated its gains.
Current 10-Year Treasury Yield
As of June 12, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.36%, below its long-term average of 5.83%.
Key Drivers of DXY in 2025
Federal Reserve Policy: Markets are pricing in potential rate cuts later in 2025, which could limit DXY upside.
Global Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven dollar demand rises during geopolitical or economic uncertainty.
Inflation Trends: Persistent U.S. inflation could delay Fed easing, supporting DXY
technical level to watch is the support level at 97,949
DXY OUTLOOKhello.
this is my view or the dwy in the next 2 days :)
hope you find this helpfull
i wil update in the mid week
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
My Thoughts #015My Thoughts
Are that the pair will sell in this manner.
The pair is in a bearish pattern
Currently the pair is making a new LL
Meaning that on the lower time frame the pair is in a bearish pattern.
As you can see that pair just made a new LL a new LH is expected
It could buy and invalidate the set up.
Just use proper risk management
Let's do the most
DXY for short 45m*The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bearish Again?!
Dollar Index leaves clear bearish clues after a test
of a significant intraday/daily supply area.
I think that the market will continue falling at reach at least 98.04 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Just got the May US CPIs. PPIs next...Here is the reaction in the US instruments to the numbers. Let's dig in.
TVC:DXY
TVC:DJI
MARKETSCOM:US500
MARKETSCOM:US100
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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Potential bullish scenario formulating for DXY. Target: 99.418.Higher timeframe analysis
Thursday, 12 June 2025 saw the DXY take out the monthly low of 97.921. This poses the bearish monthly FVG as an immediate draw on liquidity at 99.418. Warranting a bullish bias till this level.
Intermediate timeframe analysis
This bullish bias is further confirmed by an initial consolidation identified on the 1H chart immediately below the said monthly FVG. This is a signature of the formation of a market maker buy model. Note the displacement to the updside which occurred at 21:00 EST leaving behind a bullish fair value gap on the 1H. This signals the beginning of the buyside of the curve of a market maker buy model.
Scenario
A potential long scenario could play out whereby price could respect the bullish 1H FVG at 97.999 and reprice updwards towards 99.418. I suspect that the target could be reached by Tuesday morning at 2:00 am - 3:30 am EST, though this is merely an estimation at best. This analysis is largely dependent on the reaction of price in the weekly open. Though in the event of a non-volatile market open this analysis holds decent probability.
Alternate Scenario
Should the above analysis fail the relative equal lows at 97.602 could be taken out before upside to 99.418 is seen.
Follow up on DXY Short post from 2022The DXY follows Fib levels quite accurately on macro movements using the monthly chart. Both on retracement and extension. It has recently tagged the .618 retrace of the last bullish wave 5 movement that started its decline.
I would suppose it is close to completion of wave A of a ABC correction that will play out over the next several months. As it tagged the .618 mentioned above, it has also tagged the .786 extension of what is likely the c wave of the abc structure (of the larger A).
B wave trade to the upside has good probability now in my opinion. I took the trade this morning with a 3-1 RR in place. It could fall to the trend line which is fine, but if it breaks in earnest and closes a few sessions below then my stop would be triggered.
There was a bullish divergence prior to the April lows on the Daily TF and one is developing at the current lows. A close above 99.40 would confirm.
Long term the dollar is likely still going to weaken and go much lower as QE inevitably comes back into the market picture. TP levels are at 99.40, 100.54, 101.25 and 101.76.
DXY ready for takeoffDXY seems to have reached the bottom for now, as planned within the marked red timezone. I expect a bullish run until October (blue timezone) with target around 111-113 USD, which corresponds to 2-2.5 stdv from this last manipulation leg lower. All areas marked in chart.
dxy 1hr chart analaysis The current bullish trend in the DXY is likely to face a strong rejection around the 99.55–99.65 zone. Unless there is major news that significantly shifts the market direction — such as a surprise policy announcement like the tariffs introduced during Trump's era — the dollar index is not expected to break above that level. That zone could act as a major turning point, and a bearish reversal is likely to emerge from there
"Inflation Drops, Jobless Claims Jump — What’s Next for DXY, Gol🚨 Markets are shifting fast. CPI and PPI both came in lower than expected, while jobless claims hit an 8-month high. This triple data combo could mark a turning point for the US economy and the Fed’s next move.
In this video, I break down:
🔹 What soft inflation and rising unemployment mean for monetary policy
🔹 How DXY is reacting to weakening USD sentiment
🔹 Key levels for XAUUSD as rate cut bets rise
🔹 Where BTCUSD may head next with risk-on momentum building
📊 Technical + Fundamental insights — all in one session.
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DXY is turning BULLISH,I'm buying at market open, you should tooTechnically, DXY should retrace from here, range for sometimes, take out liquidity and then continue higher. My DXY post this year has a 99% accuracy. Dont take it lightly.
Now, Dxy had been following a downward trendline since the beginning of this year and I'm seeing a break out soon. Conservative traders can wait for a break and retest but I'm fairly sure we will get it. Enter and add more as the move goes in your favour, stop wasting pips. Dont hold this trade and make only 1k. Add more, compound, not when in loss but when in gain. This will change the game for you.
This means that you should be looking for sell on EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD et al.
Ya gaziere unu
TP1 @ 99.4
TP2 @ 100.5
CRYPTO CORRELATION WITH DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is probing 99-100—the same lower-rail support of its 14-year ascending channel that caught the 2011, 2015 and 2021 inflection points and launched the 2016 and 2022 dollar surges
macrotrends.net
forex.com
. History shows that when the dollar sinks beneath this zone (April 2017 and June 2020) Bitcoin has ripped 10-fold or more within months
cointelegraph.com
, whereas a sharp bounce from here (September 2022 above 110) coincided with BTC’s plunge to the cycle low near $16 k
forex.com
coindesk.com
. The macro backdrop currently favours at least a reflex rally: the Fed’s latest survey and dot-plot point to “higher-for-longer” policy with only two cuts pencilled in for 2025
reuters.com
finance.yahoo.com
, 10-year Treasuries still yield about 4.7 %—a near-cycle high that supports dollar carry demand
wsj.com
, and U.S. growth has just been revised up to 2.7 % for 2025 while euro-area PMIs languish in contraction and the ECB is already easing
mdm.com
ecb.europa.eu
. Add in lingering negative BTC-DXY correlation metrics
coindesk.com
and the structural importance of the psychologically charged 100 level, and this pivot becomes a practical timing gauge: a sustained break below 99 would clear the way for the next broad crypto bull-phase, whereas a confirmed dollar rebound warns that any exuberance in digital assets could mark a cyclical top.
Buy Idea on Us Dollar Index (Dxy)Based on :
- Demand zone
- Pin bar Reversal
- Changing of correlation between dxy and zb1!
- cot report
DXY 4hr chart Analaysis It is possible that the DXY may retrace back to the 101.208 level, which previously marked the beginning of a bearish move. Alternatively, it could also resume a bearish trend from its current level or around the 99.80 zone. The market at this point requires heightened caution.
A potential bearish entry could be considered if DXY breaks below the 98.66 – 98.30 support area. A clear break of this level would confirm a fully established bearish trend, with a likely continuation towards the 94.00 – 93.00 range. From there, a bullish momentum may be anticipated.
Reversal pattern on DXYPrice entered into the 12 months Fair value gap the second time and took out the old low there. This is called stop hunt, which is particularly significant because it happened inside a Higher timeframe Fair value gap. After this stop hunt came an invalidation of a Fair value gap (BISI). This price signinature cause the reversal of price ultimately... it is noteworthy that price had spent more than a month in the 12 Month Fair value gap. It is worth trading
XAGUSD, XAUUSD, BTCUSD, ETHUSD & DXY Daily Trade SetupsIn this update we review the recent price action in Silver, Gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum & the Dollar Index and identify the next high-probability trading setups and price targets. To review today;s video analysis click here!
Bullish outlook Previous liquidity was taken , would be expecting a bullish move to ake out sell side
Dollar Falling Ends Soon? Look What Pattern Is Forming!”Asset: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
Timeframe: 1D (Daily Chart)
Methodology: Elliott Wave + FVG (Fair Value Gap) + Price Action
DXY has completed an impulsive 5-wave bearish structure, now entering a high-probability reversal zone marked by strong buyer interest around the Wave 5 bottom.
📌 Key Insights:
Wave 5 approaching demand zone (Buyers' area)
Price inside Fair Value Gap (FVG) – potential order block
Bullish reversal expected from here
Forecast: A breakout into an ascending channel, confirming reversal
💡 If Wave 5 holds, we may see a sharp upside rally aligning with smart money accumulation + Elliott Wave psychology.
🔔 Watch for bullish confirmations near 97.50–98.00 for a potential long setup targeting the 104–107 zone.
DXY Monthly Analysis | Smart Money Concept + CHoCH BreakdownPair: US Dollar Index (DXY)
Timeframe: 1M (Monthly)
Strategy: Smart Money Concept (SMC) + Market Structure + Demand/Supply Zones
Bias: Bearish (Mid to Long-Term)
Breakdown:
Price reacted strongly from the monthly supply zone (110–104), showing signs of exhaustion.
Clear CHoCH (Change of Character) visible at the top structure, confirming loss of bullish intent.
Internal structure printed a liquidity sweep + FVG (Fair Value Gap) ➝ BOS ➝ lower low.
Current PA (price action) is targeting the first demand zone near 92–94, but major interest lies at the macro demand zone (85.100–84.900).
This level aligns with unmitigated historical demand and potential long-term accumulation range.
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📅 Projection:
Expecting a continuation to the downside after retesting minor imbalance zones.
Potential multi-year bearish leg forming Wave 3 (macro view).
Ideal accumulation/buy zone: 85.100–84.900 – if structure supports.
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📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Supply Zone: 110.800 – 104.600
CHoCH Level: ~102.300
Short-Term Demand: 92.000 – 94.000
Long-Term Demand (Institutional Interest): 85.100 – 84.900
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💡 Conclusion: Smart Money has exited from premium pricing, and the macro structure aligns with a bearish transition. As long as price respects current lower highs, we may see a deeper correction or possible trend reversal near 85 levels.
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🧠 #DXY #SmartMoney #CHoCH #ForexAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #Forex #Month
