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Caution for Dollar Shorts with Middle East Tensions FlaringMy educated guess is that the dollar is moving similar to the first time trump was elected. I am expecting dollar weakness to abate early next year. A major swing low formed in early 2018 one year after Trump was elected first round. Let us see if a similar situation forms next year. For now with DXY structured bearish caution is warranted with Oil up and 10 yr remaining elevated. There is a prior up move in April and until a decisive break below the current area Price Action and circumstances in the middle east warrant caution for dollar shorts.
TVC:DXY
by Trade_Navigator
DXY: Local Bullish Bias! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse DXY together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 97.757 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 97.970.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by FreeXauusdSignals
DXY Ready to Reload? Eyes on 99.100 as Tariff Tensions Ease!!Hey Traders, In tomorrow's trading session, we're closely monitoring the DXY for a potential buying opportunity around the 99.100 zone. After trending lower for a while, the dollar index has successfully broken out of its downtrend and is now entering a corrective phase. We’re watching the 99.100 support/resistance area closely, as it aligns with a key retracement level making it a strong candidate for a bullish reaction. On the fundamental side, Friday's NFP data came in slightly above expectations, which is typically USD-positive. In addition, recent Trump-led de-escalation in U.S.-China tariff tensions is another supportive factor for the dollar. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
11
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Setup – Supply Zone Rejection & 🔹 Trend Overview 📊 Overall Trend: Bearish (Downtrend) 📉 Price is forming lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel. 🔻 Recently bounced off a support zone, now heading toward a potential pullback. 🔵 Supply Zone (Resistance Area) 📍 Zone Range: 100.049 – 100.601 🧱 Acts as a resistance block where sellers might step in. 📏 Confluent with EMA 70 at 100.178, strengthening its validity. 🔸 Trade Setup – Short Position 🟠 ENTRY POINT: 100.088 ❌ STOP LOSS: 100.587 – 100.595 (Just above supply zone) 🎯 TARGET: 98.000 (With intermediate support levels) 📌 Support Levels 🔹 98.112 – First minor support 🔹 98.106 – Close-range confirmation 🔹 97.885 – Additional support zone 🟦 Main Target: 98.000 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio 🟧 Small risk above supply zone 🟩 Large reward to downside = Favorable R:R 📌 Summary 📈 Expecting a pullback into supply zone. 🧨 Look for bearish confirmation around 100.088. 🎯 Target the downside at 98.000 for profit.
TVC:DXYShort
by Jameshead007
18
DXY Will Grow! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 98.198. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 98.620 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPIDXY 11/06 – Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPI | Reversal Risk After 100.31? The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to consolidate within a rising channel on the H2 timeframe, with price tightening just ahead of a key macro event — the US CPI report. DXY is now approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, where liquidity hunts and potential reversals become highly probable. 🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK & MARKET SENTIMENT 📌 US CPI (June 12): The main macro driver for DXY this week. A hotter-than-expected print → strengthens the Fed’s hawkish stance → DXY likely to spike. A weaker-than-expected CPI → boosts rate cut expectations → downside pressure on DXY. 📌 Risk Sentiment: Institutions are readjusting their exposure ahead of CPI and FOMC. This has caused DXY to hover near EMA89 — a sign of indecision. 📌 Cross-asset Flows (Bonds & Gold): Treasury yields are stable, but surprises in CPI could lead to capital rotation between gold and USD, increasing volatility in XAUUSD and DXY simultaneously. 📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Trend Structure: DXY is following a clean ascending channel on H2, with higher lows respecting the lower trendline. EMA Confluence (13–34–89–200) Price is consolidating near EMA89 and below EMA200 (99.40), forming a neutral short-term bias. A clean breakout above EMA200 could trigger acceleration into the FVG zone. Key FVG Zone (H2): 99.63 – 100.31 is an unfilled Fair Value Gap. This zone may act as a magnet for price before any meaningful rejection or breakout. Potential Reversal Area: A rejection at 100.31 could trigger a sharp pullback toward the liquidity zone around 98.68. 🧠 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK CPI will set the tone for DXY’s mid-term trend. Watch the 99.63 – 100.31 FVG zone for liquidity sweeps and potential rejection. Wait for confirmation, not prediction — especially in macro-sensitive environments.
TVC:DXYLong
by MMFlowTrading
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
EUR/USD Macro Structure | Don’t Miss the Cycle ShiftAfter reviewing the 12M, 2M, and currency indexes — this isn’t just a bounce, it’s a potential macro reversal. EUR/USD (2M Chart) We’ve now got two Morning Star Dojis followed by a bullish engulfing — price is climbing steadily toward 1.16319 (neckline zone). If we break and retest clean, 1.25560 becomes a high-probability target. I view this as the neckline of a multi-year W-formation. 💶EUR Index (16D Chart) The breakout has already occurred. Retest is happening now around the 1.057 zone. Fibonacci structure supports continuation, and volume confirms strength. If momentum holds, 1.085 – 1.130+ are valid extensions. 💵 USD Index (DXY - 16D Chart) Meanwhile, the dollar is breaking down from a neckline around 98. If the 97–98 range gives way, we may revisit 88.253, confirming a shift in USD dominance. 🌐 Fundamental Alignment: The Eurozone is pushing hard for digital transformation, with the ECB advancing legislation on the digital euro. Christine Lagarde has been vocal about blockchain innovation — and XRP’s involvement in cross-border integration is no coincidence. 🎯 Key Price Levels: 1.16319: Neckline (retest zone) 1.25560: Mid-term target 1.60195: Macro expansion (long-term, structure-dependent) 📌 I encourage all traders to zoom out and track structure across multiple timeframes. Sometimes the past holds clues to the future.
TVC:DXY
by MoNi_MoN