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DOLLAR INDEX The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which U.S. banks and credit unions lend their excess reserve balances to other banks overnight, usually on an uncollateralized basis. This rate is set as a target range by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is the policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve. The current target range as of July 2025 is approximately 4.25% to 4.5%. The federal funds rate is a key benchmark that influences broader interest rates across the economy, including loans, credit cards, and mortgages. When the Fed changes this rate, it indirectly affects borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. For example, increasing the rate makes borrowing more expensive and tends to slow down economic activity to control inflation, while lowering the rate stimulates growth by making credit cheaper. The Fed adjusts this rate based on economic conditions aiming to maintain stable prices and maximum employment. It is a vital tool of U.S. monetary policy, impacting economic growth, inflation, and financial markets. In summary: It is the overnight lending rate between banks for reserve balances. It is set as a target range by the Federal Reserve's FOMC. It influences many other interest rates in the economy. Current range (July 2025) is about 4.25% to 4.5%. 1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: +82K, Previous: -33K) Above Forecast: If ADP employment is much stronger than expected, the Fed would see this as a sign of ongoing labor market resilience. Robust job growth would support consumer spending, potentially keep wage pressures elevated, and could make the Fed less likely to ease policy soon. This reinforces the case for holding rates steady or staying data-dependent on further cuts. Below Forecast or Negative: If ADP jobs gain falls short or is negative again, the Fed may interpret it as a weakening labor market, raising recession risk and reducing inflationary wage pressures. This outcome could increase the chances of a future rate cut or prompt a more dovish tone, provided it aligns with other softening indicators. 2. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: +2.4%, Previous: -0.5%) Above Forecast: A GDP print above 2.4% signals surprisingly strong economic growth and likely sustains the Fed’s view that the U.S. economy is avoiding recession. The Fed may delay rate cuts or take a more cautious approach, as stronger growth can support higher inflation or at least reduce the urgency for support. Below Forecast or Negative: Weak GDP—especially if close to zero or negative—would signal that the economy remains at risk of stagnation or recession. The Fed may then pivot to a more dovish stance, become more willing to cut rates, or accelerate discussions on easing to avoid a downturn. 3. Advance GDP Price Index q/q (Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 3.8%) Above Forecast: A significantly higher-than-expected GDP Price Index (an inflation measure) points to persistent or resurgent inflationary pressures in the economy. The Fed might see this as a reason to delay cuts or maintain restrictive rates for longer. Below Forecast: If the Price Index prints well below 2.3%, it suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated. This outcome could allow the Fed to move toward easing policy if other conditions warrant, as price stability is more clearly in hand. Bottom Line Table: Data Surprises and Likely Fed Reaction Data Surprise Fed Outlook/Action All above forecast Hawkish bias, rate cuts delayed or on hold All below forecast Dovish bias, higher chances of rate cut Mixed Data-dependent, further confirmation needed Summary: The Fed’s interpretation hinges on how these figures compare to forecasts and to each other. Stronger growth, jobs, and inflation = less rush to cut; weaker numbers = lower rates sooner. If growth or jobs are especially weak or inflation falls sharply, expect more dovish Fed commentary and a greater likelihood of future easing. Conversely, if the data all surprise to the upside, hawkish (rate-hold) messaging is likely to persist. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a financial benchmark that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies. It provides a weighted average reflecting the dollar's strength or weakness against these currencies. The DXY is widely used by traders, investors, and economists to gauge the overall performance and health of the U.S. dollar on the global stage. Key Features of the DXY: Currencies included and their weights: Euro (EUR) – 57.6% Japanese Yen (JPY) – 13.6% British Pound (GBP) – 11.9% Canadian Dollar (CAD) – 9.1% Swedish Krona (SEK) – 4.2% Swiss Franc (CHF) – 3.6% It was established in 1973 after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system to serve as a dynamic measure of the dollar's value. The index reflects changes in the exchange rates of theses versus the U.S. dollar, with a higher DXY indicating a stronger dollar. The DXY influences global trade dynamics, commodity prices (like oil and gold)
ICEUS:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – July 30, 2025 | 15-Min Chart1. **Range-Bound Structure** DXY is consolidating between 98.588 support and 99.134 resistance. The 98.68–98.74 zone has acted as demand, but repeated retests show weakening buyer interest. 2. **Failed Breakouts** Multiple rejections at 99.134 indicate it's a trap zone where sellers absorb buy-side pressure. 3. **Bearish Momentum Signs** Lower highs and wicks into resistance with weak closes suggest distribution. Momentum likely shows bearish divergence. 4. **Critical Levels** * **Support:** 98.588 — a break below this opens downside potential. * **Resistance:** 99.134 — bulls need a strong breakout above this for continuation to 99.41+. Summary: Sellers dominate below 99.134. If 98.588 breaks, expect bearish continuation. Only a confirmed breakout above 99.134 shifts bias bullish.
TVC:DXY
by TheWallstreetCapital
Interesting few days ahead... USD pairs approaching key levelsDXY is finishing a HTF consolidation and is approaching medium-term key areas. Other USD pairs are also in areas where they could aggressively turn around. EURUSD just finished a H4 3-touch continuation flag and is starting to stall on the 3rd touch, suggesting indecision in the markets. Considering the news events in the next 3 days, starting today with USD advanced GDP data, we could see volatility kicking in on these key levels. We do need a catalyst to push price into a larger directional move, and we are prime positioned for the next leg. Technically, a breakout in both directions would make sense in these areas. Time to set alarms and be vigilant but not jump into trades too early, considering NFP on Friday as well. *** **** **** 📈 Simplified Trading Rules: > Follow a Valid Sequence > Wait for Continuation > Confirm Entry (valid candlestick pattern) > Know When to Exit (SL placement) Remember, technical analysis is subjective; develop your own approach. I use this format primarily to hold myself accountable and to share my personal market views. The pairs I publish here are usually discussed in detail in my Weekly Forex Forecast (WFF) and are now showing further developments worth mentioning. ⚠ Ensure you have your own risk management in place and always stick to your trading plan. *** **** ****
TVC:DXYShort
by kalganid
THE DOLLAR INDEX HAS FINALLY BROKEN THE DOWNWARD TRENDLINETVC:DXY (Dollar Index) has been in massive downward trend from the beginning of the year 2025 which was very bad for the Dollar. as from the previous weeks, we have been seeing the dollar index making some significant moves is very interesting as this will cause pairs like USDJPY to start pumping as well, because USDJPY is correlates positively with DXY why pairs like EURUSD,GBPUSD AND GOLD will be dropping. As a matter of fact let's see close the daily candle above the current.resistance level before anticipating for any massive move. NOTE: THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE DO YOUR RESEARCH. FOLLOW ME FOR MORE UPDATES.
TVC:DXYLong
by Jahson23
US Dollar Index: Down YTD, But at a 5-Week HighThe U.S. dollar plays a leading role in the performance of U.S. stocks versus international stocks. The greenback endured its worst first-half performance since 1973, helping ex-U.S. equities post massive absolute and relative gains through June. But could the narrative be shifting? And what might it mean for investors? The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at a five-week high ahead of the July Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the key July jobs report to be released on August 1. Up four sessions in a row, the dollar appears poised to post its best month since last December (in fact, the DXY's first positive month of 2025). If it’s the start of a protracted recovery, then the “U.S. exceptionalism” trade could be back in vogue over the second half, resulting in the same old story of U.S. over international in the stock market.
TVC:DXYLong
by mikezaccardi
DOLLAR INDEX U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and US 10-Year Treasury Yield Dollar Index (DXY) — will reclaim 103-102 level if it crosses 100 mark currently is at 98.34 and faces immediate supply roof ,a make or break situation awaits dollar buyers . Over the past month, the Dollar Index has gained about 2%, although it is still down over 5% compared to a year ago. The recent uptick follows a period of volatility and selling, with investors recalibrating expectations after the resolution of trade risk premiums and recent U.S.–EU trade deals. US 10-Year Treasury Yield keep rising after its drop from 4.193% in early july to 4.5% on 17th Yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is currently about 4.42% , modestly higher than last week and unchanged from the previous session. Current levels reflect ongoing uncertainty regarding future Federal Reserve policy moves, cautious optimism regarding U.S. economic strength, and some abatement of safe-haven flows after recent global trade developments. Relationship & Market Synopsis DXY and the 10-year yield typically have a positive correlation: When Treasury yields rise, the dollar often follows, as higher yields make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Conversely, falling yields can weigh on the dollar. However, in 2025, there have been periods of divergence due to external shocks and policy uncertainty. Current setup: Both DXY and the 10Y yield are rising modestly, signaling a shift to a more constructive tone for the U.S. dollar as risk sentiment stabilizes and investors scale back some safe-haven trades. Recent U.S. economic resilience and fading tariff fears have reduced the need for defensive flows, supporting both yields and the dollar. Forward outlook: Market consensus expects limited further upside for Treasury yields unless there are strong surprises in U.S. data or Federal Reserve communication. The DXY is projected to stabilize near current levels or drift higher on persistent U.S. economic momentum. Summary: Both the Dollar Index and US 10-year Treasury yield are modestly higher as of July 29, 2025. Their positive price action reflects improving US growth prospects, reduced global risk premiums, and recalibrated market expectations on Fed policy. While their relationship is generally positive, periods of divergence have occurred in 2025 due to trade, policy, and economic shocks. Currently, both are showing moderate gains as investor sentiment stabilize
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
US Dollar Index (DXY) - 4 Hour Chart4-hour chart from CAPITALCOM displays the recent performance of the US Dollar Index (DXY), showing a current value of 98.190 with a slight decline of 0.009 (-0.01%). The chart highlights key price levels, including a recent sell signal at 98.189 and a buy signal at 98.243, with a resistance zone marked between 98.195 and 98.479. The index has experienced fluctuations, with notable drops and recoveries, and is currently trending near the 98.190 level as of July 29, 2025.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Alee_Gold_Trader
DXY at Its Most Critical Level of 2025 — Will the 100 Bank LevelThe Dollar Index (DXY), just like several other majors, is approaching a very important level. We’re now near the 100 mark, which is not only a psychological level — but also a key institutional (bank) level. There’s also a gap zone left behind that price is about to fill. I believe the index will stay in a range over the next 1–2 days as it waits for critical data later this week — especially Wednesday’s announcements and Friday’s NFP report, which could set the tone for what’s next. Based on current market sentiment, Trump’s remarks, Powell’s upcoming speech, and broader macro factors, I believe DXY has the potential to break above 100 and move toward 102–104, if that level is broken cleanly. Let’s also not forget — price bounced from a monthly demand block near 96, and we’re seeing weak support across majors like EUR and Gold. That adds confluence for potential dollar strength. 📌 What do you think — is dollar strength just around the corner? 🔁 This analysis will be updated whenever necessary. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Just my personal opinion.
TVC:DXY
by Mehrasfx
DXY Approaching Key Resistance — Trend Reversal Ahead?The DXY is forming a strong base at the bottom, showing clear signs of accumulation after a long downtrend. Price has started pushing upward and is now approaching the secondary resistance line. A breakout here could open the path toward the primary resistance zone, which has capped rallies in the past. The RSI is also trending higher, supporting this potential move. If bulls clear the red resistance line, momentum could accelerate quickly. DYOR, NFA
TVC:DXYLong
by unichartz
Key Events That Could Shape the Dollar This Week🇺🇸 Key Events That Could Shape the Dollar This Week Three major catalysts are on the radar for USD traders: 📊 ADP Employment Report 💰 Advance GDP (Q2) 🧠 Fed Chair Powell’s Speech Additionally, ongoing trade developments with the EU may add to volatility. 📊 1. ADP Employment Report The July ADP report is forecast to show 82K job additions. While this may seem consistent with recent NFP strength, several red flags suggest growing labor market weakness: Decline in labor force participation Slowing wage growth Emerging contraction signals in the services sector Even if ADP meets expectations, it may not reflect broad-based labor market health. Historically, ADP and NFP have often diverged—so the market reaction may be muted unless the data surprises meaningfully. 💰 2. Advance GDP (Q2) Q2 GDP is expected to show modest growth, possibly supported by: Higher tariff revenues boosting government income A weaker dollar improving export competitiveness Reduced imports due to elevated import costs However, much of this growth is likely nominal rather than real. With inflation remaining sticky, headline GDP may be inflated by price effects rather than true economic expansion. Real GDP could remain flat or weak. 🧠 3. Fed Chair Powell’s Speech This is arguably the most market-sensitive event of the week. Goldman Sachs and other major banks believe the recent resilience in U.S. data lowers the chances of a rate cut at this meeting. However, political dynamics could add nuance: With Donald Trump actively campaigning—and reportedly pressuring the Fed to ease rates to boost exports and growth—Powell may face a fine balancing act in his tone. Markets will dissect every word for clues on future policy. 🌐 U.S.-EU Trade Developments The U.S. recently announced a new trade agreement with the EU, including a 15% tariff on selected European imports. In the short term, this could be dollar-supportive, as it: Favors domestic producers Reduces reliance on imports Potentially improves the trade balance Yet over the longer term, such tariffs can be inflationary and disrupt global supply chains—possibly complicating the Fed’s decision-making. ⚠️ Final Thought In times of policy uncertainty, markets lose their predictability. Tariffs, in particular, often have a stronger and more immediate impact than calendar-based economic data. As a result, traders must monitor trade-related news and tariff decisions just as closely—if not more—than traditional economic releases in order to stay ahead of market direction and central bank decisions.
TVC:DXY
by mehrshad31
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