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U.S. Dollar Index

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Beware, the US dollar is at a technical crossroads 1) The US Dollar remains the weakest major Forex currency in 2025 The US dollar has had a difficult year on the foreign exchange market (Forex), recording a decline of over 9% against the world's major currencies, despite the Federal Reserve's continuing rigid monetary policy. Technically speaking, the DXY index has reached several theoretical bearish targets, notably according to Elliot analysis, but has not yet touched the key objective of the A=C movement. This dynamic is also evident in the strong chartist compression in weekly data, placing the USD at a potential breakout point. The EUR/USD and USD/JPY pairs are also in long-term hinge configurations, and institutional positions remain broadly bearish on the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. Two interesting charts on the current situation are presented below: the first shows Japanese candlesticks in monthly data, and the second is a theoretical reminder of how Elliott waves work. As long as the US dollar against a basket of major currencies (DXY) remains below the indicated pivot line, the trend remains bearish, with a target of 95/96 points. Conversely, a rebound above the hinged pivot line would put an end to the US dollar's annual correction, with the starting point for a technical recovery. 2) A weakening dollar despite an inflexible Fed: how to explain this paradox? The apparent paradox of a falling US dollar while US interest rates remain high and the Fed does not expect to cut rates before September/October, goes beyond simple rate differentials. At a time when the ECB has already embarked on a policy of monetary easing, the rate differential with the Fed should normally support the USD. However, other factors are taking over: the markets' growing mistrust of US assets, fuelled by trade tensions and uncertainty over Trump's fiscal policy, is weakening demand for dollars. Added to this is a major liquidity factor: the recent increase in the money supply (M2) in the United States and the decline in reverse repo operations, which reflect an implicit easing of financial conditions. This easing is encouraging persistent downward pressure on the greenback, despite a Fed that remains intransigent on rates. The next release of US PCE inflation, scheduled for Friday May 30, could play an important catalytic role: a higher-than-expected figure would strengthen the case for an even firmer Fed, which could offer the USD a temporary technical rebound. Conversely, confirmation of disinflation would fuel bets on future easing and accentuate selling pressure. In short, the US dollar is not only at a technical crossroads, but also a fundamental one, suspended between forthcoming monetary action and deeper signals from the global liquidity market. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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TVC:DXY
by Swissquote
Bearish reversal?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 100.21 1st Support: 99.08 1st Resistance: 101.14 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
DXY Technical Outlook – Strong Support Test and Bullish Reversa Chart Summary The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) chart illustrates a significant technical structure between strong historical support and resistance zones, with potential for a bullish reversal after a key level retest. 🟢 Key Support Zone: 99.000 – 98.000 📍 Labeled as "STRONG SUPPORT", this zone has held multiple times: Previous bounce: Early 2023 ✅ Mid-2024 rebound ✅ Current price action once again shows a reaction from this level with a bullish candle forming 🔥 📌 EMA Confluence: The 200 EMA (blue) sits at 102.401 The 50 EMA (red) at 103.725 Price is currently below both EMAs but near the 200 EMA, suggesting potential for a mean reversion bounce 📈 🔴 Resistance Zones to Watch: Resistance Zone: 109.000 – 110.000 ⛔ Historically rejected in late 2023 and again in early 2025 🧱 Acting as a supply zone — watch for rejection or breakout ATH Supply Zone: 113.000 – 114.000 🚨 This is a major psychological and technical barrier 🫡 Marked as “NEW ATH” – would need strong momentum and fundamentals for a breakout above this level 📈 Price Action Expectations: With strong support respected again, a bullish reversal toward 109.000 – 110.000 appears likely (as illustrated by the arrow). If momentum continues, a retest of ATH zone is on the cards 🔭 However, a failure to hold support could lead to breakdown below 98.000 – watch closely 🔍 🧭 Strategic Insight Bullish Bias while above support (98.000 zone) Reversal Confirmation needed above 102.401 (200 EMA) and 103.725 (50 EMA) Watch for rejection near 110.000 resistance before ATH test 📌 Final Note: 🧊 World Eyes on this Level – As highlighted on the chart, the current support area is under global observation, reinforcing its importance. 🕵️‍♂️ Stay alert for breakout volume and fundamental catalysts (e.g., Fed decisions, CPI, jobs data).
TVC:DXYLong
by MrStellanSight
27
the trap has layerswhat if i told you the dxy was not done yet, what if i told you, there was 1 more push up, 1 more test before it truly breaks and starts a bull market. what if i told you that on that final test, that final push up, the crypto market breaks and takes everything. --- you probably wouldn't believe me. --- looking at the dxy as a simple zig-zag with a complex flat in the b-wave. once wave b is completed, at about 110-111, i predict it drops down, deep and while it drops, it triggers alt season. 🌙
TVC:DXY
by notoriousbids
2
DXY OUTLOOK BEFORE FOMC | Will the Dollar Break Trend DXY OUTLOOK BEFORE FOMC | Will the Dollar Break Trend or Just Retrace? The US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded after weeks of relentless selling pressure, but this bounce is now approaching key decision zones just ahead of two critical events: the April PCE report and the next FOMC meeting. With macro data and sentiment diverging, traders should closely monitor how the dollar reacts to upcoming catalysts. 🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT Core PCE Price Index (Apr) – due Friday – is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected print may reinforce the “higher for longer” stance on rates. FOMC Minutes revealed a growing divide within the committee: some members remain open to further tightening if inflation stalls. Bond market stress is emerging again, as 10Y yields hover near 4.5%. Fiscal concerns and treasury auctions are weighing on investor sentiment. Political noise – particularly from former President Trump’s shifting tariff threats – adds short-term volatility to USD expectations. 🧠 Bottom line: While the dollar has regained ground, macro risks remain asymmetric. A hot PCE may spark short-term demand for USD, but structural credibility risks are still on the table. 📊 TECHNICAL INSIGHT – H1 STRUCTURE Price Channel: DXY broke slightly above a well-respected descending channel that started mid-May. EMA Confluence: EMA 13, 34, and 89 are beginning to align upward but haven’t fully confirmed a bullish trend yet. Key Retest Zone: 99.08 is a critical zone — a Fibonacci 38.2% level of the recent breakout. A hold here may support another test higher. 🔑 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS Immediate Support: 99.08 (Fib 38.2% + channel retest) Mid Resistance: 100.02 (round number + previous structure high + near 200 EMA) Major Target Zone: 100.48 (Fib 61.8% + multi-day pivot) 📈 POTENTIAL PRICE SCENARIOS If DXY respects 99.08, a continuation toward 100.02 and even 100.48 is plausible as a technical correction. If DXY fails to hold 99.08, the breakout above the trend channel may turn into a false break, opening the door for a re-test of lower channel support near 98.30. Watch for price behavior around 100.02 — aggressive sellers may re-enter at this level, especially if macro data disappoints. ⚠️ STRATEGIC REMINDER Avoid chasing mid-range price action. Let the market reveal its hand post-PCE. Volatility is expected to spike — be patient and let key levels define directional conviction.
TVC:DXYLong
by MMFlowTrading
DXY 4hr char anlaysis I expect the DXY to enter a temporary bullish phase, likely as part of a corrective move. The price may rise toward the 100.781 – 101.00 zone. From that level, I anticipate a bearish reversal, with the potential for the price to decline toward the 97.00 – 94.00 region. This outlook is based on my own understanding and experience in the market — it's not guaranteed to be 100% accurate, but it's a well-considered forecast. I estimate there's about an 80% probability that the market will follow this scenario.
TVC:DXYShort
by ProfissionalGoldHntryhunter
DOLLAR I Weekly CLSI Model 2- Big expansion comingHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. ✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. 🛡️ Models 1 and 2: From my posts, you can learn two core execution models. They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained. 📍 Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. 📍 Model 2 occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
 ⚔️ Listen Carefully: Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves. If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
TVC:DXYLong
by David_Perk
49
DOLLARThe US Dollar Index (DXY) Yearly Support and Potential Sell-Off to 96 Zone: Role of 10-Year Bond Yields and Interest Rates 1. Technical Outlook: DXY Support Breakdown and 96$ Target and Critical Support Levels. The DXY recently breached the 200-week moving average (200-WMA), a key multi-year support level, signaling a potential trend reversal . A sustained break below 98.00 could trigger a steeper decline toward 96.00-95$ long-term uptrend ascending trendline acting as 6months support floor connecting 2008, 2011 and 2020, . However, analyst projections also highlight the 96–95 zone as a plausible target if Fed rate cuts and macroeconomic headwinds persist . Current Context (May 2025): The DXY is testing 98.4 on weekly charts, with bears eyeing lower supports amid weakening USD sentiment . A drop to ascending trend line on 6months would align with forecasts tied to Fed policy shifts and global currency strength . 2. 10-Year Bond Yield and Interest Rate Dynamics Direct Relationship with the Dollar: The 10-year Treasury yield and USD share a strong correlation: higher yields attract foreign capital, boosting dollar demand, while lower yields weaken the currency . As of May 2025, the 10-year yield hovers near 4.54%, down from peaks but still elevated compared to global peers . Impact of Rate Cuts and Policy Divergence: Fed Rate Expectations: Markets price in five Fed rate cuts by late 2025, which would reduce yield advantages and pressure the dollar . Policy Divergence: The ECB and BoJ are expected to maintain or ease policies, while the Fed delays cuts, temporarily supporting USD. However, prolonged easing could reverse this advantage . 3. Key Drivers of Dollar Weakness Toward 96-95 ascending trendline Bearish Factors: Yield Decline: A drop in the 10-year yield (e.g., due to Fed cuts or recession fears) would erode USD appeal. For every 1% decline in yields, the DXY could fall 3–5% . Risk Sentiment: A "soft landing" scenario or rally in risk assets (stocks, commodities) may reduce safe-haven USD demand . Tariff and Geopolitical Risks: Escalating US-China/EU trade tensions could weaken the USD if global growth fears dominate . Bullish Counterpoints: Hawkish Fed Surprises: Strong US data (e.g., inflation, jobs) may delay rate cuts, keeping yields and the dollar elevated . Safe-Haven Flows: Renewed geopolitical/market turmoil could revive USD demand despite lower yields . 4. Summary: Interplay Between Yields, Rates, and DXY Factor Impact on DXY 10-Year Yield Rises Strengthens USD (investor inflows) 10-Year Yield Falls Weakens USD (capital outflows) Fed Rate Cuts Pressures USD (narrows yield gap) ECB/BoJ Easing Supports USD (policy divergence) Path to 96: A combination of Fed rate cuts, declining 10-year yields, and stronger global currencies (EUR, JPY) could drive the DXY toward 96–95 . Reversal Risks: Hawkish Fed pivots or safe-haven demand amid crises may stall the decline. Conclusion The DXY’s potential drop to the 96–95 zone hinges on sustained declines in the 10-year Treasury yield and Fed rate cuts, compounded by technical breakdowns. While policy divergence and safe-haven flows offer temporary USD support, broader macroeconomic shifts (e.g., tariff risks, global growth) could accelerate the sell-off. Traders should monitor yields, Fed rhetoric, and technical levels on demand floor and supply roof for confirmation of bearish or bullish momentum
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub