Bullish bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci support?The Aussie (AUD/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.6483
1st Support: 0.6447
1st Resistance: 0.6537
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USDAUD trade ideas
Bullish continuation?AUD/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6499
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.6483
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.6537
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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AUDUSD DistributionI will look for a valid entry from this 15m supply to enter a short to at least the range low of this model 1 distribution. This would then be a extended model 1 going over into a model 2 with a good return to zone so let's see. A entry would already be valid but i will either wait or skip for a better R/R.
AUDUSDTechnical Analysis:
Trend Context:
On H4 and Daily, AUD/USD is in a downtrend or corrective phase within a broader bearish structure.
Recent rallies have failed to break key resistance at 0.6550-0.6560, forming a double top/weak continuation.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 0.6550 – 0.6565
Support Zone: 0.6460 – 0.6440
Next Major Support: 0.6400 (if 0.6460 breaks)
Trade Setup: AUD/USD Short at 0.65256
🔻 Position: Sell AUD/USD
🔹 Entry Price: 0.65256
🎯 Target: 0.64600 (Initial TP)
🛑 Stop-Loss: 0.65580
🔧 Risk:Reward Ratio: ~1:2
AUD/USD at Critical Resistance — Bearish Outlook Below 0.65381. Major Resistance Zone: 0.65380
Price is currently testing a strong horizontal resistance level at 0.65380, a level that has been tested multiple times (as shown by the pink circles).
This level has acted as a historical turning point, which increases its significance.
2. Price Structure: Lower Highs and Equal Highs
The chart reveals a potential double top or distribution pattern, forming under the 0.65380 resistance.
This suggests weakening bullish momentum and increases the probability of a bearish reversal.
3. Projected Bearish Path (White Dotted Lines):
If price fails to break above 0.65380 decisively, the expected move is a stepwise decline.
The projected path targets several support levels:
0.65003
0.64647
0.64213
0.63957
Final target: 0.63627, a key support from early May.
4. Support & Resistance Zones:
Resistance Levels:
0.65380 (Major)
0.65003
Support Levels (Sequential Targets):
0.64647
0.64213
0.63957
0.63627
5. Confluence with Fundamentals:
U.S. economic events (highlighted at the bottom with calendar icons) may act as volatility triggers, potentially accelerating this move.
✅ Summary & Trading Implications:
Bias: Bearish below 0.65380
Trade Idea: Watch for rejection at resistance or break below 0.65003 for confirmation.
Bearish Targets: Gradual move toward 0.63627 with key pauses at intermediate support levels.
Invalidation: Daily close above 0.65380 would negate the bearish setup and open potential for new highs.
AUDUSD Follow the ascending channel selling now from resistanceOANDA:AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is currently following a well-established ascending channel and is now selling off from a key supply zone at 0.65300.
Technical Targets:
1. First Target: 0.64800
2. Second Target: 0.64500
3. Third Target: 0.64100 (Bullish Order Block)
Time Frame: 1-Hour Chart 📊
Stay tuned for more updates, and don't forget to Like, Follow, and Comment for further insights. 🚀
Happy Trading! ✨
Audusd 1h📅 June 11, 2025
📣 Forex Signal – AUD/USD
🧭 Timeframe, Setup & Zone:
1h (analysis), 30m (confirmation)
Price is testing a strong supply zone that has historically triggered sharp bearish reversals. This area aligns with the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement, often signaling exhaustion of bullish momentum. Candlestick structure shows weakening buying pressure, with upper shadows and diminishing volume. This sell limit setup targets a high-probability reversal zone with attractive risk-reward potential.
🎯 Setup:
Entry 0.65248
SL 0.65348 (−10.0 pips)
TP1 0.65103 (+14.5 pips) – scalping
TP2 0.64935 (+31.3 pips) – primary
TP3 0.64771 (+47.7 pips) – intraday
TP4 0.64586 (+66.2 pips) – swing
TP5 0.63945 (+130.3 pips) – extended
(RR: 1:1.4 / 3.1 / 4.8 / 6.6 / 13.0)
📊 Indicators (30m):
• RSI shows momentum flattening near the overbought zone, signaling potential reversal
• Stochastic is in overbought territory, preparing a bearish crossover – early signal of seller dominance
📰 Fundamentals & Sentiment:
• AUD remains under pressure from weak export data and concerns over China’s economic slowdown
• USD is steady ahead of tonight’s US CPI release – stronger inflation could boost USD demand
• Short-term sentiment favors USD strength, especially with supportive data
📌 Summary:
The entry zone is a key technical supply area, backed by bearish signals from both price action and indicators. With market sentiment leaning toward USD strength, this setup is ideal for a calculated sell limit strategy targeting both intraday and swing potential.
⚙️ Risk Management:
• Entry is active only upon touching 0.65248
• Max risk: 1–2% of total account balance
• Consider partial profit-taking starting at TP2
#audusd #sell
AUD/USD Breakout Watch: Eyes on 0.6558 and BeyondThe AUD/USD daily chart has just confirmed a breakout from a sustained consolidation zone that had kept price action capped for nearly two months. The breakout clears the psychological and technical resistance near the 0.6500 level and puts bulls back in control.
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
Ascending Triangle Breakout: Price had been coiling into an ascending triangle with a horizontal resistance at 0.6500 and rising trendline support. Today's daily close above this resistance confirms the bullish breakout.
Golden Cross Support: The 50-day SMA (currently ~0.6386) has turned higher and is approaching the 200-day SMA (~0.6437), creating a potential "golden cross" that could add momentum to the uptrend.
MACD Confirmation: MACD has crossed above the signal line and is now back in positive territory, supporting the bullish bias.
RSI Momentum: RSI is rising and holding just below 60, suggesting there's still room to the upside before the pair becomes overbought.
Fibonacci Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% retracement of the July–October 2024 decline near 0.6558.
Above that, the 78.6% retracement at 0.6730 becomes the next major target.
This breakout, backed by trendline support and bullish momentum signals, suggests AUD/USD could be entering a fresh impulsive leg higher.
-MW
AUD/USD Bulls Capped by Critical Resistance Aussie is trading into a critical resistance range into the start of the week at 6511/50- a region defined by the July close low and the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline. Note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold this week – looking for possible inflection here with the near-term rally vulnerable while below.
A topside breach exposes a potential run towards the upper parallel / September low at 66222 and the 2019 low at 6670. Initial support rests with 52-week moving average and is backed by the February high-week close (HWC) at 6357. A break / close below the low-week close (LWC) / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 6290-6300 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend.
-MB
AUD/USD Bearish Setup – Key Rejection🔍 Market Context:
AUD/USD has shown an ascending structure followed by a potential bearish divergence. The recent high around 0.65437 is marked as the Invalidation Level — a break and close above this level would invalidate the current bearish scenario.
📌 Key Levels:
Resistance / Invalidation Zone: 0.65437
Support Target Zone: Near 0.64000
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📉 Bearish Scenario:
Price is expected to reject the resistance zone and move downward based on the current structure and possible exhaustion of bullish momentum. The red projected path illustrates a potential move lower if price fails to break above the invalidation level.
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📛 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation. All trading involves risk. Please conduct your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
audusd sell signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
AUDUSD – Bearish Continuation Setup in PlayGiven the recent bearish shift on the 4-hour timeframe, the failure to break above the 4H high, and the formation of a flag pattern on the 15-minute chart in this zone, we expect the price to potentially drop toward the bottom of the 8-hour timeframe — which aligns with the first major support level.
AUD/USD Breakdown in Progress – Time to Sell the Aussie?Hey traders! AUD/USD just gave us a clean rejection from a major supply zone. Let’s break this down 👇
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🟦 Supply Zone: 0.65100 – 0.65300
The pair was rejected sharply from a strong supply area after multiple failed attempts to break through. This is a clear sign of seller dominance in this region.
🔻 Current Price: 0.64980 – Showing early signs of a bearish reversal.
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📉 What I'm Watching Next:
First key support: 0.64487
If that breaks, next target = 0.63698
(strong demand zone + previous liquidity grab area)
🟠 Watch for bearish continuation candles around 0.64800 to confirm further downside pressure.
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📅 Upcoming Risk Events:
U.S. economic data releases on June 13 could fuel more volatility – mark your calendar!
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💡 Trade Setup Idea:
Short on retest of 0.65000–0.65100
🎯 Target 1: 0.64487
🎯 Target 2: 0.63700
🛑 SL: Above 0.65350 (above supply zone)
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🔔 Are the bears taking over AUD/USD?
Comment your thoughts or charts below!
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#AUDUSD #ForexAnalysis #PriceAction #SmartMoney #TradingView #FXSignals #SupplyDemand #LuxAlgo
AUDUSD
1. Current 10-Year Bond Yields
Australia 10-Year Bond Yield:
Around 4.26% to 4.53% in early June 2025, with recent fluctuations near 4.3% to 4.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate to 3.85% in early June, citing inflation progress and global uncertainties, which influenced bond yields to decline slightly after a prior rise.
United States 10-Year Treasury Yield:
Approximately 4.44% to 4.55% in early June 2025, slightly higher than Australia's yield. US yields rose due to fiscal concerns and inflation risks despite expectations of rate cuts later in the year.
2. Interest Rate Differential
The 10-year bond yield differential (Australia minus US) is currently small and slightly negative or near zero:
4.3%(AU)−4.5%(US)≈−0.2%
This indicates US 10-year yields are marginally higher than Australian yields, reducing the carry advantage for AUD relative to USD.
The policy rate differential also favors the US slightly, with the US Federal Reserve cash rate around 4.10% and RBA cash rate at 3.85% as of June 2025.
3. Interest Rate Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP)
Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory states that the forward exchange rate should reflect the interest rate differential between two countries, preventing arbitrage opportunities.
Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) suggests the expected change in the spot exchange rate equals the interest rate differential E =iAU−USE =i AU −i US
With a slightly negative differential (~ -0.2%), UIP implies the AUD may appreciate slightly against the USD or the USD may depreciate against AUD over time to offset interest rate differences.
However, UIP often fails in the short term due to risk premiums, capital flows, and market sentiment.
4. Carry Trade Advantage
Given the small or negative yield differential, the traditional carry trade incentive to buy AUD and sell USD based on interest rates is currently weak or absent.
The carry trade advantage depends on the interest rate spread; with US yields marginally higher, borrowing USD to invest in AUD offers little or no positive carry.
Other factors like commodity prices, risk sentiment, and economic outlook influence AUD/USD more than carry trade currently.
5. Key Upcoming June 2025 Economic Data
Australia:
Q1 GDP data release (important for growth outlook)
Inflation reports (CPI updates)
Employment and unemployment figures
Retail sales and business confidence data
RBA monetary policy statements and forward guidance
United States:
Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate good for dollar index and holding rate cute on data.
CPI and PCE inflation data
Federal Reserve meeting minutes and policy outlook
Consumer confidence and retail sales
These data points will be critical in shaping expectations for interest rates, bond yields, and ultimately the AUD/USD exchange rate.
Summary Table
Metric Australia (AUD) United States (USD) Differential (AU - US)
10-Year Government Bond Yield ~4.26% - 4.53% ~4.44% - 4.55% ~ -0.2% to 0%
Policy Interest Rate 3.85% (RBA) ~4.10% (Fed) ~ -0.25%
UIP Expected Exchange Rate — — Slight AUD appreciation implied
Carry Trade Advantage Weak/None Slight advantage Minimal carry trade incentive
Key June Economic Data GDP, CPI, employment, RBA policy Employment, inflation, Fed policy —
Conclusion
The current AUD/USD 10-year bond yield differential is minimal or slightly negative, reducing the carry trade appeal of AUD versus USD. According to uncovered interest rate parity, this suggests a modest expected appreciation of AUD against USD, but actual currency movements will depend heavily on upcoming economic data and central bank policy signals from both countries. The market is closely watching inflation, growth, and employment reports in June 2025 to gauge the direction of monetary policy and bond yields
#audusd
AUDUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISAUDUSD is currently forming a strong ascending triangle on the 8H chart, with a series of higher lows pressuring a key horizontal resistance zone around 0.65250–0.65300. This is a classic bullish continuation pattern, indicating buyer strength and a potential breakout toward 0.67000 if the structure confirms. The current price action at 0.65285 shows that bulls are testing the upper boundary again, signaling possible breakout acceleration as we move into mid-June volatility.
From a macro standpoint, the Australian dollar is supported by rising commodity demand, particularly in iron ore and copper — both of which are showing strength in global markets. At the same time, the Federal Reserve remains cautious with its rate path, with recent U.S. labor data pointing to a cooling job market. Traders are now pricing in possible rate cuts sooner than expected, weakening the dollar’s bullish grip. This divergence in central bank tone and economic performance favors risk-on currencies like the AUD.
Technically, the ascending triangle is providing solid structure and confluence. Breakout traders may look for a clean candle close above 0.65350, which could open the path to the 0.67000 zone with minimal resistance ahead. A well-placed stop below the 0.64500 zone keeps risk controlled, and the favorable risk-to-reward ratio makes this setup ideal for swing continuation strategies in trending environments.
This pattern has been building over several weeks, showing market accumulation and strong bullish compression. With today's fundamentals aligning with the technical structure, AUDUSD looks ready to launch into a higher bullish leg. Keep eyes on the breakout candle and volume confirmation as we may be entering a powerful momentum phase toward the 0.67 handle.