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U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar

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USDCAD trade ideas

USDCAD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. It's always good to go with those who move the market here is what I see in their cards. I share my COT - order flow views every weekend. 🎯 Non Commercials added significant longs and closed shorts at the same time. So for that reason I see the highs as a liquidity for their longs profits taking. 📍Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage. 💊 Tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
by David_Perk
46
Israel-Iran Confrontation. (I expect upward movement in USD/CADIsrael and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold. in the meantime, investors are shifting their focus to key events this week. The main highlights will be the consumer inflation reports from the UK and the eurozone. In the EU, inflation is expected to stabilize at 1.9%, while in the UK, it is forecast to decrease from 3.5% to 3.3% year over year. This week will also bring central bank meetings in Switzerland, the UK, and, of course, the U.S. Federal Reserve-which will likely take center stage and divert attention from the tow European central banks. Other events worth focusing on include the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index U.S. retail sales figures. But let's return to the week's main event-the Fed's final monetary policy decision, which will be made over two days, Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the consensus forecast, the central bank is expected to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 4,50% The main reasons for this are persistently high consumer inflation figures, which showed an annual increase last week (albeit smaller than expected), and uncertainty about the consequences of Donald Trump's presidency. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has previously cited both as reasons to pause the rate-cutting cycle. So, what might come of the Fed holding rates steady? Frankly, not much. Ongoing uncertainty will continue to be the primary driving force in the markets. Traders are starting to anticipate rate cuts in the second half of the year. However, I believe there is a strong chance that rates will remain unchanged until next year. This is due not only to risk of inflation returning to 3% and the murky geoeconomic policies of the U.S.-China trade war and its unclear outcome. Given this combination of negative factors-each of which obstructs rate cuts-and the fact that the market has already priced these into its expectations, we can anticipate a continuation of existing trends. The pair is declining amid rising crude oil prices, which support the Canadian dollar, a commodity-linked currency. If oil prices resume upward momentum, USD/CAD will face pressure again. If the pair fails to rise above 1,3600, a decline toward 1.3435 is likely. A potential sell level is 13560.
Long
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS
23
USD/CAD)) Bearish Trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of USD/CAD on the 3-hour timeframe, using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and classic technical analysis. Here's a breakdown --- Key Technical Insights: Overall Trend: The pair is in a clear downtrend, confirmed by: Lower highs and lower lows Price trading below the 200 EMA (currently at 1.37402) Respect for the downtrend channel --- Resistance Zones: 1. Upper Resistance Zone (~1.38400 – 1.38750): Strong historical sell area (price sharply reversed here in late May) 2. Mid Resistance Zone (~1.36450 – 1.36750): Price reacted twice here and dropped. Aligns with the downtrend line and was recently tested again (red arrow). --- Bearish Projections: After the latest pullback into the resistance zone, price is expected to: Reject the zone Continue following the descending structure Target marked around 1.35034, which coincides with: Previous low Lower boundary of the descending channel Mr SMC Trading point --- Chart Tools & Features Used: Trendlines: Clearly marking the downtrend channel 200 EMA: Used as dynamic resistance Fib-like measured move: Mirrored previous impulse moves (-1.61%) suggesting a symmetric drop Arrows: Indicating reaction points from resistance --- Conclusion: Bias: Bearish Invalidation: Break and hold above 1.36500 would weaken the bearish outlook. Next Move: Potential sell setups on lower timeframe retests or bearish confirmations within the resistance zone. Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
7
Smart Money Just Flipped Bearish on USD/CAD. Are You Still Long?🧠 1. COT Context & Institutional Flows 🇨🇦 CAD COT Report (CME) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators): net short 93,143 contracts (19,651 long vs. 112,794 short), with a short reduction of -14,319 → early bearish unwinding. Commercials: net long 91,207 contracts (223,285 long vs. 132,078 short), with strong accumulation (+27,999 longs). 🔄 Net open interest change: +18,436 → renewed institutional interest on the long CAD side. 🇺🇸 USD Index COT Report (ICE) – June 10, 2025 Non-Commercials: net long 1,402 contracts (17,027 long vs. 15,625 short), with a +1,279 increase in longs → modest USD support. Commercials remain net short -35 contracts, no clear shift. 🔄 Total open interest +2,652 → mild bullish interest in USD. 📌 Implication: Strong institutional support for CAD, USD mildly supported. Net positioning favors downside pressure on USD/CAD. 💹 2. Technical Analysis & Price Action Primary trend: clearly bearish from the 1.38 zone. Current price: 1.3552, testing a macro demand zone (1.3470–1.3540). Daily RSI remains deeply oversold → possible technical bounce, but no reversal structure confirmed. Recent candles show lower highs and lower lows, with no bullish momentum. 📌 Implication: The bearish trend remains in control. A technical rebound is possible, but bias stays short as long as price trades below 1.3640. 📈 3. Retail Sentiment 77% of retail traders are long USD/CAD, with an average entry at 1.3646. Only 23% are short, positioned better at 1.3790. 📌 Implication: Retail is heavily long → contrarian bearish signal confirmed. 📊 4. Seasonality June is historically weak for USD/CAD: 5Y Avg: -0.0118 2Y Avg: -0.0081 The June seasonal curve shows a stronger downside acceleration into the second half of the month. 📌 Implication: Seasonality adds downward pressure into month-end.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
USDCAD may hit bottom amid DXY declineThe dollar is weakening. Against this background, the Canadian dollar is strengthening, which puts pressure on the price of the currency pair. The key support is 1.3566. Breakdown of the level will strengthen the sell-off The price is descending by “steps”. Consolidation - distribution, consolidation - distribution. From the current range of 1.365 - 1.3566 I expect the same thing: downward momentum. Scenario: consolidation and price sticking to 1.3566, decrease in volatility and squeeze to the urvon may lead to a breakdown and a fall.
Short
by AndeWave
3
Bearish continuation for the Loonie?The price has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support. Pivot: 1.3725 1st Support: 1.3430 1st Resistance: 1.3837 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
2
Bearish continuation?USD/CAD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3595 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 1.3644 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.3545 Why we like it: There is a support level at the 100% and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
USDCAD Analysis – Breaking the Chains, Eyeing 1.38+USDCAD Price broke out from a long descending channel, followed by two bullish continuation flags – classic breakout-retest pattern. Price is now pushing above 1.3720, aligning with the 38.2% Fib level of the prior drop. Next upside targets: 🔹 1.3833 (Fib 61.8%) 🔹 1.3913 (Fib 78.6%) Clear stop level: below 1.3625 (channel breakout support) Structure Bias: Bullish continuation. Clean breakout + consolidation = probable impulse toward 1.3830/1.39. 📊 Current Bias: Bullish 🔍 Key Fundamentals Driving USDCAD USD Drivers (Neutral to Bullish): Fed held rates, dot plot shows only 1 cut in 2025, but Powell's tone leaned dovish. US Retail Sales + PPI were weak, but safe-haven USD demand persists due to geopolitical risks and equity volatility. Market reassessing Trump election risk, Fed independence, and inflation stickiness. CAD Drivers (Bearish): Oil prices are volatile due to Middle East tensions, but weak demand caps upside. Canada’s CPI softened, BoC already delivered a dovish cut earlier this month. CAD under pressure due to dovish BoC outlook and fiscal concerns (gov't budget deficits expanding). CAD is also suffering from reduced foreign investment flows. ⚠️ Risks to Watch Oil price spikes (especially if Strait of Hormuz risk escalates) may boost CAD short-term. A sharp reversal in DXY or Fed commentary shift toward aggressive easing. Weak US data next week (Core PCE especially) could unwind USD momentum. 🗓️ Upcoming Events to Watch US Core PCE (June 28) – critical inflation gauge for the Fed BoC Business Outlook Survey Oil Inventories + Global energy sentiment Geopolitical: Israel–Iran updates and Canada’s fiscal signals 🏁 Which Pair Leads the Move? USDCAD is leading commodity crosses as CAD weakness broadens. Watch USDCAD and GBPCAD for signs of CAD softness before others like AUDCAD/NZDCAD follow.
Long
by ultreosforex
5
USD/CAD Trap in Progress? Smart Money Flips BearishUSD/CAD is currently in a rebalancing phase after the strong downside correction seen over recent weeks. Following a rejection in the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone, price retraced down to a major demand area between 1.3500 and 1.3650, where it has shown a notable bullish reaction. The pair is now trading at 1.3734, and multi-frame data suggests we are in a transitional phase—not yet a confirmed bullish trend reversal. COT Report – Institutional Positioning The latest Commitments of Traders data (June 10th) reveals critical signals: Commercials (hedgers and large institutions) have aggressively increased their long exposure on CAD, adding +27,999 contracts. This indicates strong expectations of Canadian dollar appreciation—bearish implications for USD/CAD in the medium term. Non-Commercials (speculators) reduced their short CAD exposure by -14,319 contracts, signaling that speculative players are starting to unwind long USD/CAD positions. Overall, the net shift shows institutional sentiment turning bearish on the pair, potentially pointing to a deeper downside once the current technical pullback completes. USD Index COT – Dollar Momentum Weakening On the USD Index, Non-Comms have added +1,279 long contracts, but positioning remains moderate. Commercials are flat, suggesting the dollar lacks strong bullish backing. This makes any sustained USD/CAD rally structurally fragile. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are 57% short and 43% long on USD/CAD. Although not extreme, this imbalance suggests confidence among retail participants in a bearish move—often preceding a short-term upward squeeze before an eventual trend continuation. We could therefore see price move toward 1.3900 as a liquidity grab, setting the stage for a larger reversal. Technical Analysis – Outlook Key highlights: A strong bullish reaction occurred from the 1.3500–1.3650 demand zone, previously well-respected. The weekly RSI is still below the 50-level but is turning upward—momentum is improving. Price structure shows room for a pullback to the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone, which aligns with higher-timeframe order blocks. This zone remains a critical resistance, and unless the macro and positioning context changes, a renewed bearish impulse is expected from this area. Trading Outlook The current picture presents a tactical short-term long opportunity, followed by a potential structural short setup. 📈 Scenario 1 – Bullish Pullback (in play): With price above 1.3700 and consolidating, there’s space for a rally toward the 1.3900–1.4000 supply zone. Ideal for short-term targets. 📉 Scenario 2 – Structural Short (priority bias): Should price reach 1.3950–1.4000 and show bearish confirmation (e.g., engulfing, doji, rejection on H4/H1), this would be a prime area to initiate swing shorts, targeting 1.3600 and eventually 1.3450. ✅ Final Bias: Structural Bearish – Corrective Bullish Watch for potential false breakouts above 1.3800–1.3900 to liquidate retail shorts before a more meaningful downside move. The sharp increase in commercial net long CAD positions supports a bearish USD/CAD bias for the coming weeks.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
Bearish momentum to meet support on USDCAD: Looking for a bounceEvening, just wanted to share what I’m seeing on the USDCAD chart Price on USDCAD has been in clear bearish momentum, but we’re now approaching a strong support zone, that’s held firm multiple times before, as I marked it on my chart. Price is approaching the zone again and I am taking it into account for a potential bounce. I’ll be watching for bullish confirmation as usual requirement before entering. If that support holds, I’m targeting 1.38400 , totally achievable if momentum shifts. BUT, if this zone breaks with momentum, I’ll reassess it and stay flexible. 💡 Reminder: Patience is power, no entry until price shows me something worth reacting to. This is not financial advice.
Long
by TrendDiva
39
USD/CAD.1week chart pattern.It looks like me discussing a trade setup for USD/CAD with: Sell Entry: 1.36200 Target Point 1: 1.23504 Target Point 2: 2.31000 ← This seems like a mistake Let’s break it down: --- 🔍 Trade Analysis: Sell at 1.36200: This is a reasonable short entry, near recent resistance (depending on current market context). Target Point 1 (1.23504): This is plausible, as it's a historically significant support level — a good long-term take-profit zone. Target Point 2 (2.31000): This appears illogical for a short (sell) position — it's higher than the entry price. If you're shorting, you profit from a decline, not a rise. --- ✅ Corrected Setup (Sell Idea): Sell USD/CAD @ 1.36200 Take Profit 1: 1.30000 (medium-term support) Take Profit 2: 1.23500 (long-term support) Stop Loss: 1.37200 (just above recent highs) Would you like a chart analysis or backtest of this strategy?
Short
by RSI_Trading_point
18