USDCADthis will continue his bearish movement probably throught this week . we can only join this trade on retracement if we see the opportunity to join. it is very expensive to buy usdcad for now.
USDCAD trade ideas
USDCAD; Price Approaching Buy Zone read caption PULL BACKThe recent pullback in the USDCAD pair aligns precisely with the key resistance and support zones we identified in our earlier technical analysis. As seen in our chart, price action respected the trendline and Fibonacci retracement levels, signaling a potential reversal or consolidation phase. This movement reinforces the significance of combining chart patterns, momentum indicators, and historical levels when analyzing the market. Traders following our analysis would have anticipated this shift and prepared accordingly. For a deeper dive into our methodology and projections, take a closer look at the chart and see how the technical framework played out in real time.
SELL USDCADSeeing Absorbtion of aggressive sellers, but at the same time headway of aggressive sellers, passive buyers not being able to hold them back. Initiative control on the sell side.
Potential bearish drop?USD/CAD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3781
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss: 1.3893
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.3629
Why we like it:
There is a support level that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
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Bullish bounce?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which has been identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 1.3604
1st Support: 1.3441
1st Resistance: 1.3953
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USDCAD POSSIBLE SHIFT IN TREND A possible shift in trend is noticed
all we need is one more confirmation
current entry is a risky one
HTF ALIGNMENT USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25
HIGHER TIME FRAME ALIGNMENT!
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💡In depth trade confluences provided during the week 📝
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USDCAD TRADE SETUPWait for retest the entry level then take a trade for Sell otherwise skip this setup
Weekly bearish Wolfewave PatternBears have already reached the 3:1 ratio target.
Those who are holding longer and are scaling out are still in play for the deeper targets.
USDCAD - Continuation Trading Using Structure, Fibs & VolumeWHAT I'M LOOKING AT
After ending the week with a lower low & a lower close below a recent level of structure support, I'm predicting a potential bearish trend continuation opportunity here on the $USDCAD.
MY PREDICTION
If this prediction is correct I would expect a move down to the $1.35 psychological level (or right around it) as we have a confluence from both our Fibonacci extension & a spike in horizontal volume.
HOW TO GET INVOLVED
To get involved in this move I'll be looking for a a potential retracement/pullback followed by a clear sign of reversal. The 2 price levels that I have on my radar are $1.3750's & $1.3800's
If you have any questions, comments, or just want to share your views, please do so below!
Akil
USDCAD Short Setup – Support Broken, More Downside Ahead?Bias: ✅ Strong Sell
Timeframe: 4H
Pair: USDCAD
Week: 26–30 May 2025
⸻
🔍 Technical Setup:
USDCAD just broke a major support zone around 1.3732, opening the door for continued downside into the next demand zone.
• Entry: Break and retest or continuation below 1.3732
• Stop Loss: Above resistance at 1.3813
• Take Profit: Next support near 1.3467
• Risk-Reward Ratio: ~3.9R
• Structure: Lower highs, clean breakdown, bearish momentum
⸻
🧠 Macro Confluence:
• 📉 USD Weakness: Dovish Fed, weak macro outlook (Investogenie Score 1.8 ↓)
• 🇨🇦 CAD Recovery: Hawkish BoC, conditional score surged from 2 → 10
• 📊 Seasonals: CAD favored
• 🧾 COT: Net bearish shift in USD, CAD corrective phase expected
• ⚠️ News Risk: CAD GDP & US GDP this week could accelerate the move
⸻
⚠️ Risk Notes:
• Watch for FOMC and GDP reports before scaling positions
• Break & close confirmed – trail stops on lower timeframe
⸻
📌 Momentum is in favor – ride the breakdown, but stay data-aware.
Share setups or feedback below 👇
USDCAD short Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Daily Rejection At AOi
Previous Structure point Weekly
Around Psychological Level 1.38500
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5.11
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
USDCAD Forcast For Next Week Sell Opportunity ahead.
Entry: 1.37841
Stoploss: 1.378841
Take profit: 1.36150
A Support zone breaken. Waiting for it to retest and go down forward.
Comments your opinion
For Account management. Connect on X @shajudeakinoba1
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📍 Place your Thief SL at the recent swing low on the 4H timeframe (1.38500) for scalping or day trades.
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USDCAD: Price Approaching Buying Zone, Will DXY Bounce Back? The USDCAD pair has dropped significantly in recent times, particularly as the DXY index has plummeted. The extremely bearish nature of the DXY suggests that the price of USDCAD is melting. Both fundamental and technical indicators indicate a potential bullish price reversal for this pair, which could potentially hit our first take-profit area. This is a swing analysis, so please give time for the trade to get activated and for it to work out in our favour.
Please note that this analysis does not guarantee that the price will move as suggested. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own research.
If you’d like to assist us, we encourage you to consider the following actions:
- Like our ideas
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- Share our ideas
Kind regards,
Team Setupsfx_
Much love ❤️🚀
USDCAD: Weekly AnalysisThe last week sharp fall of the pair was not irrelated to US-Iran negotiations.
Possible war in Persian Gulf means higher prices in oil and more raises in CAD.
The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confrimation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
*******************************************************************
Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
USDCAD: Bearish Continuation Ahead 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD completed a consolidation within a horizontal range.
A violation of its support and a daily candle close below that
is a strong bearish signal.
I believe that the price may drop lower next week
and reach at least 1.3655 level.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDCAD SHORTThe price broke the structure with impulse move and retraced. The price found resistance in previous low (inside resistance), where we have a 38.2% Fibonacci retarcement level, as well as 50MA, after that price broke the correction, so i expect the price move further to the downside.
ENTRY: 1.3860
TP 1.3800
SL 1.3889
#technicalanalysis #usdcad #short
Follow Iran news to take advantage of USDCAD:Dear Traders,
follow Iran news! Really do that! Again, Trump negotiations could change everything!
How? It's all about oil! any war in the Middle east could rise the oil prices and Loonie will pump!
So, any bad news about the US-Iran negotiations, I'll take long trades with cautions. and I'll be ready to take short from any possible Zones.
If everything goes normal, I'm ready to take Long/Short after confirmation from the Green and the Blue zones.
Expectations: (Just for normal situations, A war in middle east I'll short the pair)
The Green zone is not suitable for short trades.
The White zone is not suitable for any trades.
After all, 71Billion $ for Canda economy is considerable. Persian Gulf is one of the most important energy hubs of the world.
USDCADKey Reasons for CAD Strengthening Today
Market-Wide US Dollar Weakness
The CAD gained sharply against the USD, rising about 1% and reaching seven-month highs, largely driven by broad US dollar weakness rather than strong Canadian data alone.
Renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump against the EU and tech companies fueled risk-off sentiment, weakening the USD and benefiting the CAD as a commodity-linked currency.
Mid-Tier Canadian Economic Data and Oil Prices
Although Canadian economic data this week has been mostly mid-tier and not spectacular, the market focused on stable fundamentals like retail sales and trade balance, which support the currency.
Canada’s oil prices, a major export driver, remain supportive, helping underpin the CAD’s value.
Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations
Canada’s inflation remains somewhat elevated but controlled, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) expected to maintain relatively higher interest rates compared to other economies. This attracts capital inflows and supports the CAD.
The BoC’s stance contrasts with expectations of US Federal Reserve easing, contributing to the interest rate differential favoring the CAD.
Improved Trade Outlook and Economic Resilience
Talks between US and Canadian officials have eased some trade uncertainties, reducing risks to Canadian exports.
Canada’s trade deficit narrowed recently, and GDP growth showed resilience in key sectors, supporting market confidence in the CAD.
Risk-On Sentiment and Global Capital Flows
Investors’ risk appetite improved amid easing fears of a US recession and trade war escalation, leading to increased demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the CAD.
Risk-On Market Sentiment Encourages investment in CAD
USD and CAD Interest Rate Differential and 10-Year Bond Prices (May 2025)
Interest Rate Differential
The US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.54% (recent 2025 data).
The Canadian 10-year Government Bond yield is slightly lower, around 3.50% to 3.60% (typical range in early 2025).
This creates an interest rate differential of roughly 0.9% to 1.0% in favor of the US.
Impact of Interest Rate Differential
The widening interest rate gap, with US yields higher than Canadian yields by about 1 percentage point, has contributed to a modest depreciation of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against the US dollar (USD) since late 2024.
Investors find US assets more attractive due to higher yields, leading to capital flows into USD and downward pressure on CAD.
The Bank of Canada’s expected policy rate is around 2.5% by end-2025, while the US Federal Reserve’s expected rate is higher near 3.75–4.0%, reinforcing the yield advantage for USD assets.
10-Year Bond Prices
Bond prices move inversely to yields. With US 10-year yields higher, US bond prices have declined relative to Canadian bonds.
The higher US yields reflect tighter monetary policy and stronger economic outlook compared to Canada, where monetary policy is expected to be more accommodative.
This divergence in bond prices and yields supports the USD’s relative strength versus CAD
USD/CAD Exchange Rate and Market Sentiment
USD/CAD has been trading in a broad range in 2025, with forecasts varying between 1.25 and 1.45 for the year.
The Canadian dollar is considered overvalued by about 9 cents relative to the USD, according to some models.
Market analysts expect the USD to maintain moderate strength against CAD due to the interest rate differential and divergent monetary policies.
Summary Table
Metric USD CAD
10-Year Bond Yield (%) ~4.54% ~3.50–3.60%
Interest Rate Differential +0.9% to 1.0% (USD over CAD) —
Bond Price Trend Lower (due to higher yield) Higher (due to lower yield)
Exchange Rate (USD/CAD) Stronger USD Weaker CAD
Conclusion
Today’s CAD strength was largely driven by broad US dollar weakness amid renewed trade tensions and tariff threats, combined with stable Canadian economic fundamentals and supportive oil prices. While Canadian data was not overwhelmingly strong, it was sufficient to maintain investor confidence, especially against a weakening USD, resulting in a notable rally in the Canadian dollar.
The higher US 10-year bond yields relative to Canada’s have contributed to a significant interest rate differential (~1%), favoring USD assets. This has led to USD strength against CAD and lower US bond prices compared to Canadian bonds. The ongoing divergence in monetary policy outlooks between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada underpins this trend, influencing currency flows and bond market dynamics in 2025.
USDCAD: 1D Death Cross signals more selling.USDCAD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 31.307, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 41.498) as it is having one of the strongest red 1D candles of 2025, which is dominated by a Channel Down pattern. The market formed today a 1D Death Cross and since the new bearish wave started on a 1D MA200 rejection, we expect the selling to continue despite the oversold technical condition. Short and aim for a new -3.80% decline TP = 1.35000.
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USD/CAD 1.4000 Rejection -> 2025 LowsUSD-weakness was back in a big way this week and even as other pairs had yielded to the USD-breakout into last Monday, with fresh lows in EUR/USD and fresh highs in USD/JPY - USD/CAD retained its bearish structure with a hold of resistance right at the 1.4000 level.
Price is now 250ish pips lower as sellers have went back to work and there's potential for breakdown scenarios given this hold near support following a pullback to the big figure. For those looking to work with pullbacks, there's now resistance potential at prior swing lows 1.3814 and then 1.3846, and USD/CAD remains one of the more attractive venues for a continuation of Dollar weakness as we move towards the final week of May trade. - js
