Bullish Breakout from Falling WedgeCurrently, the USD/CAD is in a crucial support area. The weakness of the US dollar and the improvement in the fundamental aspects of the Canadian dollar have created a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Traders are adopting a strategy of selling high and buying low within the range of 1.3760-1.3844. Once the resistance/support level is broken through, they will follow the trend accordingly.
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USDCAD trade ideas
Watching carefully USDCAD this weekWith the abundance of US & CAN data this week, we may see some interesting action in USDCAD pair.
Let's dig in.
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#USDCAD: Two Major Buying Zones, Patience Pays! As previously analysed, USDCAD is expected to decline towards our predetermined entry point. We anticipate a bearish US Dollar for the remainder of the week, which will ultimately lead USDCAD to reach the entry zone. Three distinct target areas exist, collectively worth over 1100 pips. Each entry point, stop loss, and take profit is clearly defined.
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USDCAD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISUSDCAD is currently trading around 1.3820, exhibiting a bullish bias as it approaches the upper boundary of a consolidation range. The pair has been forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating potential for a breakout. A decisive move above the 1.3850 resistance level could pave the way toward the 1.3920 target.
Fundamentally, the U.S. dollar has gained strength due to stronger-than-expected manufacturing data, with the ISM PMI rising to 48.7 in April, surpassing forecasts. This data has bolstered U.S. yields and supported the dollar. Conversely, the Canadian dollar has faced pressure from weaker domestic manufacturing activity, with the S\&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI falling to 45.3, marking the sharpest contraction since May 2020 .
Additionally, recent U.S. tariff announcements on Canadian goods have introduced further uncertainty, potentially impacting Canada's export-driven economy. The Bank of Canada may consider easing monetary policy to counteract these challenges, which could further weaken the Canadian dollar.
In summary, USDCAD is poised for a potential breakout above 1.3850, driven by a combination of technical patterns and fundamental factors favoring the U.S. dollar. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and economic indicators to confirm the continuation of this upward trend.
USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D5 Y25USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W19 D5 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Intraday breaks of structure
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
✅15' order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
USD/CAD: Time to Go Long?On the monthly chart, USD/CAD has found strong support, signaling a potential bullish continuation. With anticipated USD strength in the coming weeks, there’s a clear opportunity for the pair to move higher.
We are targeting 1.40180 as the first objective, with the potential to extend towards 1.41500 if momentum continues.
On the daily chart, the price is showing signs of weakness but also bullish intent, suggesting a possible retracement before a move higher. Ideally, a pullback into the 1.38490 – 1.38450 zone would offer a high-probability long entry.
USDCAD Monthly – Seller Initiative in PlayHey traders and investors!
Take a look at the monthly chart of USDCAD.
The price has been in a sideways range for quite some time, and the seller initiative is currently active.
📌 At the upper boundary of the range, a seller zone (red box) has formed, along with a seller-side Decision bar (IKC), which has now hit the buyer zone (blue box).
⚠️ With this structure, it makes more sense to look for short setups.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
The possible uprising of USDCAD, 4hr1. Technical Analysis
• Trendline + Horizontal Support
A clearly defined uptrend line, drawn from the March ’24 low through the August and April pullbacks, intersects the 1.3810–1.3850 area. That same zone has flipped from support to resistance and back again over the past year, marking it as a high‑probability reversal point.
• Bullish Divergence
On the 4‑hour RSI, the most recent price low dipped slightly below March’s low while RSI held higher. This divergence at a key support zone suggests selling momentum is exhausted and buyers may be stepping in.
• Entry, Stops & Targets
• Entry: Look for a clean bullish 4H candle (pin bar, engulfing bar, etc.) around 1.3820–1.3850, where trendline and horizontal support converge.
• Stop: Place below 1.3680, under the April swing low and next structural demand area.
• Target 1: 1.4168 (recent mid‑range swing high)
• Target 2: 1.4467–1.4542 (major supply zone from late 2024)
This setup offers roughly a 1:4 risk‑to‑reward ratio if both targets are reached.
• Higher‑Timeframe Confirmation
A daily close back above 1.3850 would reinforce this zone’s support role. Wait for that or a clear 4‑hour bullish pattern before committing.
2. Fundamental Analysis
• Oil Price Pressure
WTI has slid toward the low‑$60s on OPEC+ supply increases and softer Chinese demand. With Canada heavily reliant on oil revenues, lower crude prices tend to weaken CAD against USD.
• Policy Divergence
The Bank of Canada remains on hold at 2.75% and markets anticipate cuts later in 2025, while the Federal Reserve holds funds rates at 5.25–5.50%. That yield gap supports USD strength.
• Growth Differential
Canada’s Q1 GDP underperformed expectations—soft energy and mining output—whereas U.S. growth is still running near 2–3%. The disparity favors USD.
• Risk Sentiment
Elevated U.S.–China trade tensions and global growth concerns have nudged markets into risk‑off mode, a backdrop in which USD typically outperforms commodity‑linked currencies like CAD.
Bottom Line
With a multi‑touch trendline and horizontal flip level converging around 1.3820–1.3850, coupled with RSI divergence and dovish CAD fundamentals versus a still‑hawkish Fed, this is a textbook long setup. Wait for a convincing 4‑hour bullish signal in the zone, use a stop under 1.3680, and target 1.4168 first, then 1.4467–1.4542.
USD_CAD WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅USD_CAD is consolidating
Beneath the horizontal resistance
Of 1.3862 so we are bearish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bearish move down
This trading week
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Analysis of the USD/CAD Exchange RateAs of last Friday, the USD/CAD exchange rate traded in the range of 1.3800 - 1.3850, down 0.0217% compared to the previous day. The key resistance level was 1.3844, and the support level was 1.3760. In the short term, the fluctuations are dominated by the US non - farm payrolls data and trade policies: strong US employment data may support the rebound of the US dollar.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
USDCADON THE 4HR TIMEFRAME
⚡️We established the key monthly zone.
⚡️weekly trendline.
⚡️wide divergence all signaling bullish and hence rhyming with the monthly,
⚡️weekly and daily bullish bias.
Our confirmation will be the break of the 4hr trend line for a possible quick entry long!!
It's Bullish🚀 guyss
USDCADThis 4-hour chart of USD/CAD presents a bearish channel setup, signaling continuation of the downtrend. Here's a breakdown of the technical context:
Trend & Structure Analysis:
🔻 Descending Channel:
The price is respecting a downward-sloping channel (highlighted in red).
Lower highs are marked by red arrows showing consistent rejection at the upper trendline.
🔹 EMA Resistance:
EMA 9 (blue line) and EMA 21 (orange line) are above price and sloping downward.
The 9 EMA is currently at 1.38199, reinforcing resistance in this area.
🔹 Horizontal Levels:
Daily Resistance around 1.38554 has been rejected repeatedly.
Immediate support lies around 1.37603.
Fibonacci Levels & Bearish Projection:
Fibonacci retracement from a recent swing shows:
0.382 ≈ 1.38241
0.5 ≈ 1.38133 (currently acting as resistance)
Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets):
1.618 = 1.36972
2.618 = 1.35951
3.618 = 1.34930
4.236 = 1.34371 (aligns with Daily Demand Zone)
Trade Setup Idea (Short Bias):
Bias: Bearish while price stays below the descending channel’s upper boundary and EMA resistance.
Entry: Near 1.3813–1.3824 (after a potential pullback)
Stop-Loss: Above 1.3855 (daily resistance)
Targets:
TP1: 1.3760
TP2: 1.3697
TP3: 1.3595
TP4: 1.3437 (Daily Demand Zone)
USD-CAD Free Signal! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USD-CAD is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair is
Consolidating below the
Horizontal resistance
Around 1.3880 so we are
Bearish biased and we can
Enter a short trade on Monday
With the Take Profit of 1.3725
And the Stop Loss of 1.3908
Sell!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.