USDCAD trade ideas
USDCAD Rebound from Key Support – Bullish Setup in PlayUSDCAD pair has reached a technical inflection point at key support around 1.3700, where it is attempting a rebound after several days of bearish momentum. With recent Canadian data showing underlying economic strain and the U.S. dollar reacting to rate expectations and tariff news, this area becomes crucial for the next directional move.
🔍 Technical Analysis
Support Level: Price has respected the horizontal support at 1.3700–1.3685, forming a possible double-bottom structure on the 4H chart.
Bullish Reversal Zone: The latest candle shows a strong rejection wick at the support zone, suggesting bullish interest. The structure aligns with a classic bullish reversal pattern.
Target Zones:
First TP: 1.3849 (previous high / supply zone).
Second TP: 1.3860–1.3870 (Fibonacci extension + minor resistance).
Invalidation (SL): Below 1.3685, further downside may open to 1.3632.
🧠 Fundamental Context
U.S. Side:
GDP and NFP data have recently come out mixed, reducing the immediate pressure on the Fed to hike rates further.
Tariff uncertainty and appeal plans by the Trump administration are increasing near-term USD volatility.
US bond yields are firming again, giving the dollar mild support.
Canada Side:
Canadian Q1 GDP disappointed at 0.1%, lower than expected.
BoC is likely to hold rates steady, but the economy shows weak business investment and softening consumption growth.
Crude oil, Canada’s key export, is still under pressure, slightly weakening CAD.
✅ Conclusion
This setup favors a short-term long on USDCAD from current levels, targeting the upper resistance zone at 1.3849–1.3860. A break and close above 1.3870 could extend toward 1.3900. However, caution should be exercised with upcoming U.S. labor and trade data that may fuel volatility.
USDCAD Price Rebounding from Key Support as CAD WeakensUSDCAD is showing signs of a potential reversal from key support around the 1.3700–1.3685 zone. The pair had been declining steadily but recent weakness in the Canadian Dollar — driven by soft economic data and oil market uncertainty — is starting to shift momentum back in favor of the U.S. Dollar. As long as support holds, there is room for a bullish continuation toward 1.3860 or higher in the near term.
Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
Trend Structure: After a strong impulsive drop earlier in May, USDCAD formed a rounded bottom near 1.3685, followed by a corrective bounce. The recent retracement toward the support area is forming a potential higher low setup.
Support Zone:
Primary Support: 1.3700–1.3685
This is a clean structure zone and previous demand level. Price tested this area on May 24–25 and rebounded sharply.
Resistance Zone:
Short-Term Target: 1.3849–1.3860
This is the next major horizontal resistance, and aligns with previous price congestion before the latest decline.
Price Projection:
The chart suggests a bullish wave may develop from the support zone, targeting the 1.3860 level. If broken, a further move toward 1.3920 (May swing high) is possible.
Invalidation Level:
A daily close below 1.3680 would negate the bullish bias and signal a deeper correction or trend continuation lower.
Fundamental Analysis
U.S. Dollar (USD) Drivers:
Q1 GDP second estimate shows steady but modest growth.
Consumer Confidence fell recently, capping upside for the USD short term.
The Fed remains cautious, signaling that inflation risks persist — keeping interest rates elevated, which supports USD.
U.S. Treasury yields have been stable to slightly higher, also helping support the dollar.
Canadian Dollar (CAD) Drivers:
Canada's balance of payments posted a larger-than-expected deficit in Q1 — a negative for CAD.
Oil prices, which heavily influence CAD, have been under pressure from global demand uncertainty.
Domestic demand is softening: flat retail sales and weak trade balance data reduce CAD appeal.
Bank of Canada is showing signs of policy caution, especially as inflation slows faster than in the U.S.
Conclusion
Outlook: Short-term bullish
USDCAD is likely to bounce from the 1.3700–1.3685 zone and retest 1.3849–1.3860 if CAD weakness continues.
Trade Plan (if trading):
Buy Zone: 1.3700–1.3685
Target: 1.3860
Stop Loss: Below 1.3680 (structure break)
The pair is fundamentally supported by CAD weakness and technically primed for a rebound — but confirmation from price action near support is critical.
USDCAD: Growth & Bullish Continuation
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the USDCAD pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
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Could the Loonie reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 127.2% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 1.3767
1st Support: 1.3634
1st Resistance: 1.3856
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USDCAD – Sell the Reversal at Key ResistanceTrade Idea
Type: Sell Limit
Entry: 1.3750
Target: 1.3650
Stop Loss: 1.3800
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2:1
Duration: Intraday
Expires: 04/06/2025 06:00
Technical Overview
The recent correction higher is likely complete, with price testing strong resistance near 1.3750.
A move through 1.3700 will confirm renewed bearish momentum.
This area aligns with multiple technical resistance levels, making it a strategic zone to initiate shorts.
The measured move target is 1.3625, but this setup looks to capture the move to 1.3650 for a higher probability win.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TECHNICAL APPROACH - USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W23 D23 Y25🔥👀USDCAD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W23 D23 Y25
TECHNICAL HOTPICK ! 💥💥
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅4H order block rejection
✅HTF 50 EMA
✅Intraday bearish breaks of structure to be identified
✅15’ order block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Bullish bounce?USD/CAD is reacting off the support level which is a pullback support and a bounce off this level could indicate a double bottom pattern which might lead to a potential price rise to our take profit.
Entry: 1.3691
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 1.3634
Why we like it:
There is a support level at the 127.22% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.3818
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDCAD MARKET ANALYSIS AND PRICE PREDICTIONUSDCAD , has retested the rejection and order zone. Price has already grabbed the Sell Side liquidity and upward movement is mostly certain. An institutional Buy order is going to push the price up. The first target is the breaker block at the renegotiation trend line at 1.37837, and the second target is the renegotiation resistance at 1.38595 to clear off the Buy side liquidity. Entry is now.
Entry, take profits and stop loss are clearly stated on the chats.
GOOD LUCK GUYS!
DIDCLAIMER
This analysis might fail due to market uncertainties. Take full responsibility of your capital and manage your own risk!
USD/CAD Market ObservationThe USD/CAD exchange rate extended its decline, hitting an intraday low of 1.3673 and a new year-to-date low. The US Dollar Index weakened across the board under multiple bearish factors, while the Canadian Dollar remained strong supported by robust economic data. USD/CAD has fully broken below a key support zone, accelerating its downward trend after breaching the 1.3800 level. Current market sentiment is clearly bearish on the US Dollar. Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and the strengthening expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts have left the US Dollar lacking upward momentum. Meanwhile, strong Canadian economic data and expectations that the Bank of Canada will maintain a hawkish stance have provided solid support for the Canadian Dollar. Traders generally believe that with the obvious divergence in fundamentals, USD/CAD still has further downside potential.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Trading Strategy:
sell@1.3750-1.3800
TP:1.3550-1.3600
USDCAD: Will It Drop Lower? 🇺🇸🇨🇦
I successfully predicted a bearish move on USDCAD on Friday.
Because the trend is bearish, I think that the pair may drop
even below a current structure low.
Next strong support that I see is 1.3652.
It might be the next goal for the bears.
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USD/CAD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are going short on the USD/CAD with the target of 1.375 level, because the pair is overbought and will soon hit the resistance line above. We deduced the overbought condition from the price being near to the upper BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is green and gives us a counter-signal.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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