USDEUX trade ideas
EUR/USD Daily AnalysisBuyers are in charge of the market on the daily timeframe, however the MACD has printed a lower high when price has printed a higher high.
This is a potential sign of the buyers losing their strength and we may see some selling come in.
If you agree with the analysis, look for opportunities to trade that meet your own strategy rules and always use good risk management.
EUR/USD – 30m | Smart Money long SetupPair: EUR/USD
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Minutes
🔹 Confluence Strategy: Elliott Wave + Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
🔹 Pattern: Ending Triangle (Wave e) + CHoCH + BOS
🔹 Published on: June 17, 2025
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🧠 Analysis Summary:
1. Wave (e) of triangle nearly complete — signs of liquidity grab at the low.
2. CHoCH formed after internal structure break – a bullish signal.
3. Demand zone successfully mitigated, showing buyer reaction.
4. BOS confirms intent to shift bullish structure.
5. Clear imbalance/fair value gap filled before move.
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🎯 Next Move Projection:
Entry Zone: 1.1562–1.1565 (Demand Area)
Target: 1.1596–1.1600 (Supply Zone Resistance)
Invalidation: Clean break below 1.1555 low (demand fails)
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📌 Trade Bias:
✔️ Bullish — Expecting price to tap into supply zone and potentially reverse.
⚠️ Monitor lower timeframes (5m–15m) for rejection signs near 1.1600.
EUR/USD Triangle Pattern – 1H Timeframe
📊 EUR/USD Triangle Pattern – 1H Timeframe
🕐 Date: 17 June 2025
📌 Chart by: GreenfireForex
🔷 Pattern: Contracting Triangle (ABCDE)
🔍 Context: Forming inside Wave (4) – possible breakout before Wave (5)
📈 Upside Potential: Break above triangle → target near 1.16500+
📉 Downside Risk: If fails to break up → revisit demand zone around 1.15000
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🔮 Possible Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout:
Breaks above wave (e)
Clean rally toward target zone
Ideal for a long setup with tight SL
❌ Bearish Fakeout:
Rejection from triangle resistance
Falls back into demand zone
Look for reversal or retest opportunities
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🎯 Strategy Tips:
Wait for a breakout candle
Use SL outside triangle zone
Entry based on confirmation – avoid early trades
💬 Let’s discuss live market reaction as price nears triangle edge. Stay ready .
EURUSD awaits upcoming newsYesterday, EURUSD climbed back above 1,1600, testing the previous high.
Tomorrow, the market is anticipating the FED’s interest rate decision.
For now, the trend remains clear, with expectations of increased volatility.
Keep an eye out for a higher low and a breakout above the previous high.
The best indicator //@version=5
strategy("EMA-RSI-Bollinger Strategy", overlay=true, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=10)
// === Indicatori ===
ema20 = ta.ema(close, 20)
ema50 = ta.ema(close, 50)
rsi = ta.rsi(close, 14)
basis = ta.sma(close, 20)
dev = 2 * ta.stdev(close, 20)
upperBB = basis + dev
lowerBB = basis - dev
// === Condiții pentru Buy ===
longTrend = ema20 > ema50
longPullback = close <= ema20 and close <= lowerBB
longRSI = rsi < 50 and rsi > 30
longSignal = longTrend and longPullback and longRSI
// === Condiții pentru Sell ===
shortTrend = ema20 < ema50
shortPullback = close >= ema20 and close >= upperBB
shortRSI = rsi > 50 and rsi < 70
shortSignal = shortTrend and shortPullback and shortRSI
// === Semnale & Tranzacții ===
if (longSignal)
strategy.entry("Buy", strategy.long)
if (shortSignal)
strategy.entry("Sell", strat
EURUSD in bullish trendprice action seems quite bullish on bigger TFs which gives opportunity to earn decent RR, with latest bullish divergence it seems that trend will likely mark new HH as on 30 min TF trend is following bullish Dow theory. There can be 2 bullish setups which i have also opened on the chart.
Beware of Mon gaps!!!
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 13, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading session, the Eurodollar has exhibited notable volatility, mirroring patterns observed in the preceding week. The currency has surpassed both the Mean Resistance level of 1.145 and the Key Resistance level of 1.151, subsequently retesting the significant completed Outer Currency Rally level at 1.157.
Recent analyses indicate that the Euro is likely to revisit both the Key Resistance and the completed Outer Currency Rally and expand further to the next Outer Currency Rally of 1.177 in the forthcoming trading session(s). However, there exists a potential for a continuation of the downward trend from the current level, which could lead to the price action targeting the Mean Support level at 1.149 and possibly a further extension to the Mean Support level at 1.140.
DeGRAM | EURUSD above the 1.15📊 Technical Analysis
● Hourly close above 1.1500 completed a small ascending triangle; price is now hugging the rising-channel’s upper rail after a chain of higher-lows, pointing toward the 1.1600 objective.
● Triangle top and channel mid-line overlap at 1.1500-1.1520; while candles stay above, risk : reward favours a push to the next fib / upper parallel near 1.1650.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US core-CPI eased to 0.1 % m/m, driving Treasury yields lower and lifting September Fed-cut odds >70 %, weakening the dollar, while ECB officials talked up a “data-dependent” pause, keeping euro bids firm.
✨ Summary
Long bias while price holds 1.1520; targets 1.1600 then 1.1650. Invalidate on an hourly close below 1.1470.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
EURUSD Eyes Higher HighsHi there,
The EUR/USD is showing a bullish setup on the 30-minute chart, with two key price targets in focus and an upside bias toward 1.16867.
I’ve seen a completed ABC corrective pattern, followed by a significant low at point D. This suggests that the recent correction may be over. If momentum continues, the pair could rally from current levels, potentially breaking above the previous swing high at point C to form a new higher high.
Immediate resistance levels to watch are 1.16016 and 1.16311, with the main bullish target at the 0.618 Fibonacci extension near 1.16867. If price holds above the recent low and maintains upward momentum, we can anticipate that these targets remain in play.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice.
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D20 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W25 D20 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅15' order block
✅4 hour order block identified
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
#AN008: Israel, Iran and the price of fear
GEOPOLITICS – Israel, Iran and the price of fear
While the stock markets are trying to hold up, the geopolitical reality is very different. In the last 72 hours, Israel has hit a facility considered strategic in southern Iran. Tehran responded with ballistic warheads targeted at NATO positions, and threatened a military closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In a few hours, Brent has shot above $100, while WTI has touched $94.20, bringing back to life a spectre that seemed archived: energy purchases.
DOLLAR AND FED – Sickles under pressure
The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged, but Powell has sent a clear signal: "there will be no cut if the geopolitical context continues to generate upward pressure on prices".
In other words: the FED remains hawkish, the dollar continues to dominate, and global sentiment shifts to risk.
CROSS WATCH – SwipeUP FX Opportunity
EUR/USD
Weak EU macro + sustained US sell-off + war → Realistic target 1.0630 – if it breaks 1.0675 H8.
USD/JPY
Institutionals undecided: if the yen does not strengthen and the BOJ remains neutral, we can return above 158. Target: 158.60-159.2 in case of new USD leg.
CAD/JPY and oil-linked
Canada benefits from the oil increase, but be careful: risk-off can penalize. Assess only with cyclical confirmation and real volumes.
📌 WHAT TO WATCH NOW – SwipeUP Checklist
📆 Friday, June 21: US PMI data + Powell speech
⚠️ VIX above 20: signals real tension
📉 JPY and CHF in divergence? → watch out for manipulative breakouts
🗓️ Earnings Season: can divert flows in the short term, but remains in the background
ECB’s De Guindos Sees Balanced Inflation RisksEuropean Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Monday that the EUR/USD at 1.15 does not hinder the ECB’s inflation goal, noting the euro’s gradual rise and stable volatility.
He stated inflation risks are balanced, with little chance of falling short of the target, and that markets have clearly understood the ECB’s recent policy signals. De Guindos reaffirmed the ECB is close to its inflation objective
Looking ahead, he warned that tariffs could slow growth and inflation in the medium term but expressed confidence in the Fed maintaining swap line arrangements. He also confirmed there have been no discussions about repatriating gold reserves from New York.
At the time, EUR/USD was down 0.09%, trading near 1.1537.
Resistance is located at 1.1580, while support is seen at 1.1460.
EURUSD June 16 Trade ExecutedEURUSD
June 16 Trade Executed
Parent Bias Bull
Fridays delivery to build a narrative for Monday
*Asia to London price expanded to seek lowwr prices take sell side liquidity in London
*Note Friday was a reversal of Thursday
*Prices expansion wicks to equilibrium
*Reversed to take minor buy side in NY AM
*NY PM Retraced AM rally
*NY closes in a FVG-Note bodies staying above the CE of the FVG
June 16 Framework for suspected buy day
*Asia opened in a premium previous session
*I was expecting a long consolidation after Sundays delivery
*
*Equal lows as a target to trigger a expansion coming into mid night opening
*22:00 price wicks to create a wall of equal lows
*23:15 Price takes minor buy side liquidity
*20:00 price immediately expanded
*20:09 entered
*First target buy stops 1.15693
*Second target 1.15848
Took partials here and now letting it ride.
Patience waiting for clues to the bias I was suspecting. Buying the mid night opening price with the bias is allowing me to get in when I suspect a expansion cycle is in play.
Asia expansion trade for the win.
EURUSD ANALYSIS - LONGPrice has successfully broken out of the falling wedge on both the daily and weekly charts, signaling strong bullish momentum. After hitting resistance around 1.1555 (61.8% Fib), we’re seeing a healthy pullback towards 1.1500-1.1488 support. As long as bulls defend 1.1400, I’m looking for continuation towards 1.1555 and 1.1894 swing targets. Watching price action closely at the current pullback zone for potential long entries.
EUR/USD Slips on Geopolitical TensionsEUR/USD dropped to around 1.1530 on Friday, ending a four-day rally, as safe-haven demand lifted the US Dollar amid rising Middle East tensions.
Israel struck Iranian targets to weaken its nuclear program, prompting emergency measures. The US denied involvement but warned Iran not to target its assets.
Trump’s plan to expand steel tariffs from June 23 added trade uncertainty, while soft US inflation data kept Fed rate cut hopes alive.
Markets now await the US Michigan Sentiment report for further signals.
Resistance is located at 1.1580, while support is seen at 1.1460.