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U.S. DOLLAR / EURO REFERENCE RATE

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WILL EUR CONTINUE TO RALLY AHEAD OF THE IMPORTANT NFP DATA?EUR/USD – WILL EUR CONTINUE TO RALLY AHEAD OF THE IMPORTANT NFP DATA? 📈 EUR/USD IS AT A CRITICAL POINT AHEAD OF KEY ECONOMIC DATA Amid the ongoing pressure on the US Dollar and macroeconomic factors supporting the Euro, EUR/USD might continue its short-term bullish trend. However, key data such as US CPI and central bank meetings could determine the direction for this currency pair moving forward. 🌍 Macroeconomic Overview & Market Sentiment USD & DXY: The US Dollar continues to weaken due to signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates. DXY has fallen below the 99 level, with macroeconomic factors showing a continued bearish trend for the USD. Eurozone: The ECB (European Central Bank) is maintaining a slightly tight monetary policy. However, the Eurozone economy is showing signs of recovery, with positive data from the region. US Economy: Forecasts for the US labor market data could impact the USD and lead to volatility in the EUR/USD pair. All attention is on the reports from the US this week. 📊 Technical Analysis (H1 – H4 – D1) EMA 13/34/89/200: The EMA indicators on the H1 and H4 timeframes support the current bullish trend for EUR/USD in the short term. In particular, the EMA 13 and EMA 34 are crossing above the EMA 200, signaling a strong upward trend. Wave Structure: EUR/USD is currently in a corrective wave after testing the strong resistance level at 1.1450. A recovery signal is emerging around the support level at 1.1380, which could present a buying opportunity in the short term. Fibonacci Expansion: The Fibonacci extension levels at 1.1470 and 1.1490 could be the next targets if EUR/USD breaks through the 1.1400 resistance zone. ⚡ Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1470, 1.1490, 1.1500 Support: 1.1380, 1.1350, 1.1320, 1.1300 🧭 Trading Scenario 🔵 BUY ZONE: 1.1380 – 1.1365 SL: 1.1340 TP: 1.1420 → 1.1450 → 1.1470 → 1.1490 🔻 SELL ZONE: 1.1450 – 1.1460 SL: 1.1475 TP: 1.1420 → 1.1400 → 1.1370 → 1.1350 ✅ Summary EUR/USD is currently in a short-term bullish trend and could continue to rise if the support at 1.1365 holds. However, key economic data from the US, especially CPI and central bank meetings from the Fed and ECB, could impact the next direction for this pair. Traders should keep an eye on important support and resistance levels to identify safe trading opportunities.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
EUR/USD 4H – Potential Quasimodo + Bearish Divergence SetupCurrently monitoring EUR/USD for a potential sell setup based on several strong technical confluences: ⸻ 🧠 Price Structure: Possible Quasimodo (QM) Pattern • The chart is showing early signs of a Quasimodo pattern (QM) formation. • Left Shoulder and Right Shoulder are developing, with a higher high (false break) between them. • The recent Dominant Break above 1.14948 could be a liquidity grab — classic in QM setups. • Price appears to be retesting the right shoulder area, signaling potential for a bearish reversal. ⸻ 📉 AO Indicator: Bearish Divergence as Confirmation • Clear bearish divergence between price action and the Awesome Oscillator (AO): • Price made a higher high, but AO printed a lower high. • This signals weakening bullish momentum — a powerful confluence for a potential drop. ⸻ ⚠️ Confluences for Sell Setup: 1. ✅ Potential QM Pattern forming 2. ✅ Dominant Break followed by a potential right shoulder retest 3. ✅ Strong bearish divergence on AO 4. ✅ Price failing to break and close strongly above recent high (~1.1494) ⸻ 📍 Sell Trade Plan (if confirms): • Entry Zone: Around 1.14400–1.14600 (right shoulder zone) • Stop Loss: Above previous high (~1.15000) • Take-Profit Options: • TP1: Previous structure support around 1.13600 • TP2: Deeper support zone ~1.13000–1.12700 • TP3 (Aggressive): Full QM target near 1.12100 (as marked on the chart) ⸻ ⏳ Wait For: • Bearish rejection or momentum candle on 4H or 1H • AO to cross below 0 or accelerate red bars for extra confirmation ⸻ 💡 Conclusion: EUR/USD is showing signs of a bearish reversal with a textbook QM setup supported by AO divergence. If the right shoulder holds and bearish momentum kicks in, this could offer a high-probability short opportunity.
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
Despite some difficulties, EUR is still in an uptrendThe European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and said inflation was close to its medium-term target of 2%. Trump's tariff policies have loosened financial conditions, suggesting further easing is likely. This dovish stance has put some pressure on the euro. Preliminary eurozone CPI data for May showed that inflationary pressures slowed more than expected, dragging the euro down. Germany’s manufacturing PMI for May was weaker than expected, suggesting further contraction in the manufacturing sector; France’s services PMI was better than expected, but still in contraction territory. Eurozone economic data has been mixed. European Central Bank President Lagarde said the monetary easing cycle was coming to an end, boosting market confidence in the euro over the medium term. But caution will still be needed about the impact of Trump’s tariff policies on the global economy. While the ECB believes trade tensions have eased, the eurozone is not completely out of the woods. If future economic data remains weak, the euro could face downward pressure. On the daily chart of OANDA:EURUSD after receiving support from the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level with horizontal support at 1.12038, the recovery momentum has created a significant increase. Specifically, the increase has tested the levels of 1.14744 and 1.14212, please note that in the previous publication about EUR/USD, these levels are also the nearest resistance at present. However, in terms of the overall technical picture, EUR/USD is still in a bullish trend with a break above 1.14744 opening the door for a new bullish cycle with a short-term target of 1.15720. Intraday, the bullish outlook for EUR/USD will be highlighted again by the following price points. Support: 1.13788 – 1.12422 Resistance: 1.14212 – 1.14744
Long
by Xayah_trading
EURUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !Technical Breakdown: Rising Wedge Pattern ✅ Price was moving inside a rising channel (blue lines). This is often a bearish reversal pattern. Break of Structure 💥 Price broke the lower trendline + support zone — confirming potential downside momentum. Short Entry Zone 🟪 Purple box marks a premium entry zone (Order Block / Supply Zone) — where sellers are likely positioned. Stop Loss: 1.14781 🔺 (Above last high) Target: Key demand zone below (highlighted in grey) 🎯 --- 📦 Order Flow Perspective: Internal structure shows lower highs and lower lows forming. Expecting price to retest lower blue trendline, then drop to fill imbalance and hit demand zone below. --- 🗓️ Upcoming Events: Watch out for USD-related news near June 10 & June 14 — it may increase volatility 📊 --- 🧠 Summary: This is a classic bearish continuation setup. Entry after pullback = higher R:R potential. Patience and proper risk management are key 🔑 ---
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD Potential Long then ShortEUR/USD looking to trade around a key supply zone between 1.1450–1.1500. We’re watching for signs of bearish rejection to build a short bias from this area. No trade unless price confirms. Main Setup: If price retests upper zone (~1.1450–1.1500) and shows clear bearish price action, I’ll be looking to enter short. Ideal signs: rejection wicks, SFPs, bearish engulfing, lower timeframe structure shift. Break & Retest Option: If price breaks below 1.1390, a clean bearish retest could offer a continuation short setup. Structure break confirmation is key here. This is a forecast, and trades will be dependent on live PA. If we don’t get confirmation, we don’t force it. Patience is key. DXY Outlook: The Dollar Index looks bearish overall but is currently in a small corrective bounce. A short-term DXY pullback would support a push into EUR/USD’s supply zone — lining up nicely with our plan. If DXY flips back to bullish, that strengthens our short setup.
Short
by SKA_CAPITAL
Euro will correct a little and then continue to move up nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing this chart, we can see how the price entered to upward channel, where it at once dropped from the resistance line to the support line and then started to grow. In a short time price rose to the 1.1210 level, broke it, and even rose a little more, but soon turned around and declined to the support line of the channel. Then the Euro made an upward impulse, and then broke the 1.1210 level one more time and continued to grow inside the channel. Later price reached the resistance line of the channel and then corrected, after which, in a short time rose to the support area, breaking the 1.1400 level. But soon the price turned around and dropped to the 1.1210 level, thereby exiting from channel. Next, Euro continued to grow inside the wedge, where it rose to the current support level and soon broke it. After this, the price rose to the resistance line of the wedge and then corrected, after which it made an upward impulse. Price exited from the wedge, and now I think that the Euro can make a correction, after the rise, and then continue to grow next. That's why I set my TP at 1.1560 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by LegionQ8
7
EURUSD Trade Plan 08/06/2025📉 EUR/USD Technical Analysis – June 8, 2025 EUR/USD is showing signs of weakness after rejecting the resistance zone around 1.1475 (Fib 0.618 level). The pair broke below the ascending trendline, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading. 🔻 Scenario: We may see a corrective pullback to retest the broken trendline (around 1.1450–1.1460). If this retest holds as resistance, the pair is likely to continue its decline. 🎯 Bearish Targets: First target: 1.1303 Second target zone: 1.1253 – 1.1220 📌 Invalidation Level: A daily close above 1.1577 would invalidate this bearish scenario. RSI is also turning lower from mid-levels, supporting a potential downside move. ⚠️ Trade with proper risk management and monitor price action around the key levels. if you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content." Regards, Alireza
Short
by alirezak
EURUSD TRADE INSIGHT Price has been bullish for a long time now, there was a temporary retracement into a mitigation zone, there's a bounce off and price is giving clear upwards shift in market structure, with the current bullish market structure, we have a confirmation for a buy next week. But currently, price is ready to fall into our buy order block, so we'll be selling on Monday with market Open. Check the charts, if it aligns with your system, then we've got to make money together on Monday morning. Good morning traders and have a beautiful trading week ahead Follow for more insights like this
Short
by SMHunter07
EUR/USD Reversal Imminent? 5 Powerful ReasonsEUR/USD – Tactical Bearish Outlook Ahead of Key Reversal EUR/USD is approaching a critical inflection point where multiple technical and fundamental signals are aligning to suggest a potential short-term reversal. 📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (1W / 1D) The pair recently completed a clean bullish structure inside an ascending channel, originating from the 1.0600 demand zone and reaching into the key supply area between 1.1400–1.1550. Recent price behavior indicates: A weekly candle with a strong upper wick, signaling institutional rejection. A visible RSI bearish divergence, showing weakening momentum. The most recent daily candle broke below the channel, suggesting a potential swing high. Implication: A short-term reversal is likely, targeting the 1.1180 zone, with an extended move potentially reaching the 1.1050–1.1000 area. 🧠 2. COT Data – Institutional Positioning USD Index: Non-Commercials increased longs (+823) and slightly increased shorts (+363) — net bias still bullish USD. Commercials also added to longs, further confirming institutional accumulation. → USD strength building. EUR Futures: Non-Commercials reduced longs (-1,716) and added shorts (+6,737). The net long position in EUR continues to weaken. → Increasing risk of EUR retracement. 📅 3. Seasonality – EUR/USD in June EUR/USD tends to be neutral to bearish in June. The 5- and 10-year averages show consistent early-month declines, supporting a short bias in the first two weeks. 📊 4. Retail Sentiment Sentiment is currently evenly split (50/50). However, more volume is positioned long — a potential contrarian signal. → A break in this balance may trigger volatility and directionality. 🧭 5. Macro Context Eurozone is facing stagnation, with falling inflation and weak growth. U.S. data remains stronger, supporting the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative. → This divergence favors a stronger USD in the near term. ✅ Trading Outlook 📉 Current Bias: Bearish (corrective) 📌 Short-Term Target: 1.1180 📌 Mid-Term Target: 1.1050–1.1000 ❌ Invalidation: Weekly close above 1.1460 🎯 Strategy: Look for intraday rejection confirmations and sell pullbacks, in alignment with HTF structure and institutional flows.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
Bigger correction for EUHi traders, Last week EU did not make an impulse wave 3 but instead it slowly went up. And after the ECB rate decision on Thursday it started to drop. At the moment the pattern is not very clear. This could be a bigger correction down for wave 4 (black) so my main bias is to the downside. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the finish of a small correction up to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
8