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USDJPY trade ideas

Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.57, up 0.16% on the day. Tokyo Core CPI surprised on the downside in June, falling to 3.1% y/y. This was down sharply from the 3.6% gain in May and below the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the the first slowdown in Tokyo core inflation since February. The decline was largely driven by a renewal of fuel subsidies and a reduction in water charges. Despite the drop, core inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, maintaining expectations for another rate hike in the second half of the year. BoJ Governor Ueda has signaled that the Bank will raise rates if it is confident that wage growth is sustained, which is critical to maintaining inflation at the 2% target. However, this week's BOJ Summary of Opinions showed that some members are more dovish, given global trade tensions and the bumpy US-Japan trade talks. Japan has said it will not agree to US tariffs of 25% on Japanese cars, and six rounds of talks in the past two months have failed to produce a deal. The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, accelerated in May and was higher than expected. The index rose 2.7% y/y up from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May and above the consensus of 2.6%. Monthly, the index rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% which was also the consensus. This was a three-month high and will boost the case for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the July meeting. USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.49 and 144.64 144.31 and 144.16 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/JPY Bearish Gartley Pattern Completion - SELL SETUP 📊 Trade Overview Pair: USD/JPY Pattern: Bearish Gartley Timeframe: 15 minutes Direction: SHORT Setup Type: Harmonic Pattern Completion + FVG Confluence 🎯 Market Analysis The price is evidently bearish according to market structure, currently in a retracement phase, and I expect a bearish continuation at the 61.8 Fibonacci level of the wave. The harmonic pattern establishes an 88.6 Fibonacci ratio for bearish entry with a balanced and low-risk R/R of 1:1.82 (profit - risk).
Short
by oky_capriatto
USDJPY The Target Is DOWN! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for USDJPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 147.41 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 146.00 Safe Stop Loss - 148.14 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Is the US dollar taking a breather against the Japanese yen?After the recent rebound of the US dollar following two quarters of decline, the USD/JPY pair has been on an upward trajectory, forming a series of higher highs on both the 4-hour and daily charts. However, the recent drop below the 146.515 level and the formation of a new low suggests a potential shift in trend on the 4-hour timeframe from bullish to bearish. This could signal a possible pullback in the short to medium term, with the first short-term target located at the 146.084 level. The bearish scenario would be invalidated if the price rises above 147.179 and a 4-hour candle closes above that level.
by CFI
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 11, 2025 USDJPYThe dollar is holding steady at 146.500 against the yen: another rise in US yields and stable demand for safe US assets following comments from the Fed are fueling appetite for the USD, while demand for the JPY remains sluggish. The tariff front exacerbates the imbalance: the White House has already imposed 25% tariffs on Japanese goods, and new ideas for “umbrella” tariffs are heightening fears of a trade war, forcing investors to flow into financing currencies. Reuters notes that the yen weakened to 146.400, recording a weekly decline of more than 1%. At the same time, the Bank of Japan is not yet ready for aggressive tightening: a decline in inflation to 1.8% y/y and weak real wage dynamics make it difficult to raise rates above 0.5%. The divergence in monetary policy and expectations for Japanese macro data (machine tool orders, industrial production) until July 14 form the fundamental basis for the pair's growth to 147.500 and above, while the risks of correction are limited to the 145.900 zone. Trading recommendation: BUY 146.500, SL 145.900, TP 147.500
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
ABCHello traders! 👋 I hope you’re having a fantastic trading week so far. Let’s take a look at the USDJPY setup unfolding right now — and it’s all about classic symmetry. 📌 Setup Breakdown We’re seeing a textbook ABC Bearish Continuation: 🔹 AB: Sharp move down 🔹 BC: Clean correction back into structure 🔹 CD (Projected): Symmetrical to AB, aiming toward the target zone Price just tapped into the PCZ (Potential Completion Zone) around the 127.2%–161.8% fib projections — showing early rejection and setting up a potential move lower. 🎯 Target Zone First Objective: 100% projection (~145.35) Extended Target: 127.2% (~144.96) With structure clear and risk above C, the symmetry is doing all the talking. 🧠 Key Factors ✅ Classic ABC symmetry ✅ Strong reaction at PCZ ✅ Risk well-defined ✅ Trend continuation potential No guesswork — just measured movement within structure. 💬 Final Thoughts If this plays out, it would be a clean continuation play in line with the overall flow. As always, let the chart guide you — not emotion. 📚 Pattern → Zone → Reaction → Follow-through Wishing everyone smooth trades ahead. Let’s keep it simple and professional.
Short
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
USDJPY| 15| Liquidity Grab + Choch reaction Price formed a basic CHoCH after sweeping sell-side liquidity and creating a temporary low. A short setup was taken from a lower timeframe supply zone, aligned with bearish order flow and rejection at imbalance. 🔹 Sell-side Liquidity Sweep 🔹 CHoCH Confirmation 🔹 Rejection from Supply 🔹 Expecting bearish continuation if price holds below 146.52 Invalidation: If price closes above the LQ CHoCH zone, I’ll shift bias to longs. Until then, I’m holding the short narrative. #SMC #USDJPY #OrderFlow #LiquiditySweep #FXTradingClub #PriceAction #CHoCH
Short
by sam_trades_smc
USD/JPY: A High-Clarity Setup in a Coiling MarketFor weeks, the market has been choppy and difficult, grinding accounts down with indecisive price action. Many traders are getting stomped by the noise. This post is designed to cut through that chaos with a single, high-clarity trade idea based on a powerful fundamental story and a clean technical picture. The focus is on the USD/JPY, where a major catalyst (US CPI) is about to meet a tightly coiling chart pattern. The Fundamental Why 📰 Our entire thesis is now supported by both qualitative and quantitative analysis. The core driver is the profound monetary policy divergence between the U.S. and Japan, which manifests as a powerful Interest Rate Differential. The Core Driver: The Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-easy policy while the Fed is in a "hawkish hold," creating a significant interest rate gap of over 400 basis points that fuels the carry trade. Quantitative Validation: Our new analysis confirms this is the primary driver. We found a strong positive correlation of 0.54 between the USD/JPY exchange rate and this Interest Rate Differential. This provides a robust, data-backed reason for our long bias. This creates a fundamental chasm between the two currencies, representing a compelling long-term tailwind for USD/JPY. The Technical Picture 📊 The 4-hour chart perfectly visualizes the market's current state. The Coiled Spring: Price is consolidating in a tight symmetrical triangle. This represents a balance between buyers and sellers and a build-up of energy. A breakout is imminent. The Demand Zone: Our entry is not random. We are targeting a dip into the key demand zone between 144.50 - 144.80. This area is significant because it aligns with the 50-day moving average, a level that offers a more favorable risk/reward ratio. The Underlying Conflict: It's important to note the long-term bearish "Death Cross" on the daily chart (50 MA below 200 MA). Our thesis is that the immense fundamental pressure—now validated by our quantitative study—will be strong enough to overwhelm this lagging technical signal. The Plan & Setup 🎯 This is a conditional setup, and our analysis confirms the proposed levels are well-reasoned. We are waiting for the market to confirm our thesis before entering. The Setup: 📉 Long (Buy) USD/JPY. We are looking for price to dip into our demand zone and then break out of the triangle to the upside. Entry Zone: 👉 144.50 - 144.80. Watch for a 4H candle to show support in this area. Stop Loss: ⛔️ 144.00. A break below this level would signal that the immediate bullish structure has failed and invalidates the trade thesis. Take Profit: 🎯 149.50. This target is strategically set just below the major 150.00 psychological handle, a level where institutional orders are likely clustered. This setup provides a clear, logical plan to engage with the market's next big move. It's all signal, no noise. Trade smart, and manage your risk.
Long
by MaxellAguiran
Bears On The Prowl, Key Supports In FocusAnalysis USDJPY has faced downward pressure recently and is currently trading below a key resistance level around 152.250. This level acts as a significant barrier to upward movements, and the inability to decisively break above it reinforces our bearish outlook. Key Observations 🔹 Dominant Bearish Pressure: Despite fluctuations, bulls (buyers) seem to be struggling to maintain higher levels, while bears (sellers) are asserting pressure. 🔹 Key Resistance: The 152.250 level serves as a strong resistance. As long as the price remains below this level, the bearish view will prevail. 🔹 Crucial Supports: The levels of 141.710 and 137.410 are acting as critical support zones for this pair. A break below either of these levels could pave the way for further declines. 🔹 Momentum Indicators: (Here, you can add details about specific indicators that confirm your bearish view. For example: "The RSI is moving towards oversold territory, suggesting continued downside momentum," or "The MACD is showing a bearish crossover, indicating potential for further weakness.") Potential Scenarios 🔴 Primary Scenario (Bearish): As long as USDJPY remains below the 152.250 resistance, we anticipate continued downward pressure. The bears' initial target will be to test and break the 141.710 support. 🔻 Break of First Support: If the 141.710 support is broken decisively (with strong candles and significant volume), this would be a strong bearish signal. In this scenario, the next target for the price would be to test the lower support at 137.410. A break below this level could lead to even deeper declines. 🟢 Alternative Scenario (Bullish): Should USDJPY manage to decisively break above the 152.250 resistance and sustain itself above it, our bearish view would be temporarily invalidated, and we might see a corrective upward movement. However, until this occurs, the focus remains on the bearish scenario. Fundamental Considerations 🔘 US-Japan Interest Rate Differential: The significant interest rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continues to be a major factor. Any shift in market expectations regarding the monetary policies of these two central banks could impact USDJPY. 🔘 Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy: Any signs of a change in the BoJ's ultra-loose monetary policy (e.g., an interest rate hike or a reduction in asset purchases) could strengthen the JPY and put downward pressure on USDJPY. 🔘 US Economic Data: Upcoming US economic data, particularly inflation figures and statements from Federal Reserve officials, could influence the dollar's value and, consequently, USDJPY. 🍀HAVE PROFITABLE TRADES🍻
Short
by TheApolloo
USD/JPY Long Trade SetupBuy dips - 146.50-146.60 Stop Loss -145.80 - Below retest zone; invalidates breakout. TP-1 148.80 - Scale 50 % Pattern target / June high cluster. TP-2 150.00 - Round-number magnet, option strikes. Rationale The dollar-yen cross has snapped out of its early-summer drift and vaulted back above the 100-day simple moving average for the first time since February, reaching ¥147.19 on 9 July – a two-and-a-half-week high – as the greenback rides an upswing in U.S. yields and tariff-driven inflation fears. The technical breakout puts the familiar 148.00/150.00 band – the June swing high and the psychological round number – back in play for trend-followers over the next several sessions. Policy divergence as wide as ever Federal Reserve – higher-for-longer: Minutes from the June FOMC showed staff pushing inflation projections higher and flagging “upside risks” should tariff pass-through accelerate, reinforcing the market’s view that rate cuts will be pushed into Q4 at the earliest. Five straight sessions of rising Treasury yields have followed, lifting the 10-year to 4.45 % and widening the U.S.–Japan real-rate gap. Bank of Japan – stuck on hold: Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai told Reuters the central bank will “wait at least until March 2026” before considering another hike, as Trump’s 25 % tariff on Japanese goods (effective 1 August) clouds the export outlook and will likely force the BOJ to cut its growth forecast at the 31 July Outlook Report. With headline CPI still only just above target and real wages contracting.
Long
by TerraBullMarkets
Yen Falls After Trump's 25% Tariff on JapanThe Japanese yen weakened beyond 146 per dollar on Tuesday, hitting a two-week low after President Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting August 1, lower than the earlier 35% threat but still above the standard 10%. Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba pledged to keep negotiating for a favorable outcome. Although Japan’s May current account surplus came in stronger than expected, disappointing wage growth limited hopes for further Bank of Japan rate hikes, adding pressure on the yen. Key resistance is at 146.20; major support at 144.85.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 8, 2025 USDJPYThe yen remains under pressure from trade frictions. President Donald Trump has confirmed 25 percent tariffs on Japanese goods effective 1 August, fuelling U.S.-inflation expectations and reducing the odds of a near-term Fed rate cut. Ten-year Treasury yields have climbed above 4.45 percent, while the spread over equivalent JGBs hovers near 380 basis points—supportive for the dollar. Japan’s domestic backdrop offers little relief. Nominal wage growth has slowed for a third straight month, and real household incomes have posted their deepest decline in twenty months. The weak earnings momentum complicates the Bank of Japan’s exit strategy and keeps ultra-loose policy firmly in place, encouraging further capital outflows from the yen. Against this backdrop, USD/JPY is consolidating above its 100-day moving average around 146.40–146.50. Absent a sudden flight to safe-haven assets, the pair could break 147.00 in the coming sessions, while the 145.950–146.000 zone is widely viewed as an attractive area to add to long positions. Trading recommendation: BUY 146.250, SL 145.950, TP 147.000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY InsightHello to all our subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. President Trump has officially announced that he will sign an executive order extending the reciprocal tariff suspension deadline to August 1st. - Through a post on Truth Social, President Trump revealed that he had first sent tariff letters to allies South Korea and Japan, addressed directly to their heads of state, stating that a 25% tariff would be imposed on both countries starting August 1st. - Hajime Takata, a member of Japan’s Monetary Policy Board, hinted at the possibility of additional rate hikes, stating: “If solid capital investment, wage increases, and the sustainability of price pass-through can be confirmed, we will need to shift gears one step at a time.” This Week's Major Economic Events + July 8: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision + July 9: Release of FOMC Meeting Minutes + July 10: Germany’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) + July 11: UK May GDP Report USDJPY Chart Analysis The pair rebounded near the 142 level, showing upward momentum. This appears to reflect the impact of Trump’s announcement of high tariffs on Japan. If negotiations proceed, the upward trend may stall. In such a scenario, a potential high around 148 is likely. However, if the 148 level is breached, there could be an additional rally toward the 151 level.
Long
by shawntime_academy