Is The Bull Run Still Feasible In Q4?The answer can be seen from the USDT Dominance Chart, which trades in opposite direction to to every other coin ( as it shows that the market is either buying or selling at that particular time period). From this we should be able to guess the market's next move.
From the chart, we should retest the resistance in a few days or weeks which should see Bitcoin go below $59k. If the resistance of the USDT Dominance holds, we should have our Bull Run finally, this Q4.
USDT.D trade ideas
USDT.D planThree scenarios(Bullish Case):
1. It pumps today, we see a massive pull back to 57k
2. Pulls back from GP before pumping to make a swing failure pattern
3. Pulls back today, this was the bottom(unlikely)
Expecting Scenario No. 2. want to see some sort of pull back today, trapping longs before one more dump
Alt coin season starts with this dump
USDT.D Update - Oct 07 2024#USDT dominance got close to 5.99% level and had a slight drop to its current zone of 5.47% - 5.63% and initial signs for another rise are visible. If USDT.D manages to cross above the blue trendline and 5.63% level, it will continue to higher levels. The strength of the next move is crucial to the overall market's condition.
tether can make itshort it now and make some money by this Entry
Pricce will go down easily
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USDT.D Update (1H)First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always moving inverse of BTCUSDT .
Due to the news of the war in the Middle East, selling pressure has been very strong in the crypto market for several days.
Tether's dominance has now reached the supply range.
In smaller timeframes, Tether's dominance can be rejected downwards
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Tether (USDT) Dominance: Full Analysis (Weekly Timeframe)Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, we have an interesting chart here.
At first, I opened USDT.D on the daily timeframe and immediately thought that it was bearish, that's the first impression that I received when looking at the chart, after a few seconds it became mixed.
I then switched to the weekly timeframe and patterns changed completely. Plotting the moving averages surely added another dimension.
Let's review this chart together and see what it has to say.
My name is Alan, and it is always my pleasure to write for you.
The Tether Dominance index chart (USDT.D) has been bullish forever, it was always growing until June 2022 when it peaked and started to move sideways with bearish tendencies. Sideways while producing lower highs.
A lower high in November 2022, another lower high in June 2023, then again in September 2023 and finally a crash. The crash ended in a major low in March 2024. The exact same date that USDT.D bottomed, Bitcoin peaked.
The level at which it bottomed, one session and on a wick, which is a signal of strength, is the same level that produced the last up-move before the June 2022 peak.
This level is super strong and worked for consolidation between January and March 2022. Now it worked as support in March 2024.
Tether Dominance moved below MA200, and this produced the climax of the crash. Slowly but surely it recovered above MA200.
The crash led almost to the test of EMA377 but prices bounced before reaching this level, a signal of strength.
After the March 2024 support was hit, a perfect ascending channel develop, truly perfect. After a peak in August and lower high in September, we saw a three weeks correction pushing the index to retest MA200 as support. It closed below MA200 but this week moved back above this level right away.
Today, USDT.D trades above MA200 within an ascending channel, perfect higher highs and higher lows with a bullish bias.
➖ If this index were to move below 5.21%, it would be easy to see it lower and extremely bearish, with plenty of room to move down. But as long as the index trades above 5.38%, on the other hand, it is super bullish and set to continue higher.
Since the bounce in March 2024, there has never been three consecutive weeks closing red until last week. Always after two weeks red, there would be some bullish action. We saw three weeks red, which means an over-extended move, and right after, a strong green candle.
This is surely an interesting and crucial point, a wait and see moment but the chart is 100% clear.
The chart has been rising for almost seven months printing a perfect rising channel. It moved below a very strong long-term support level just to quickly bounce back above it. While we can have doubts as to what will actually happen next, the chart is saying that the bulls have the upper hand and the index will continue to grow in the coming weeks.
There are two ways that these bullish signals can become invalid:
1) Short-term. The index moves and closes a full candle below 5.21%. This would break MA200 and the perfect rising channel.
2) Long-term. The index moves and closes weekly below 4.67%. This would break the rising channel irrevocably, in a way that a new one cannot be drawn and thus the rising trend is invalidated. This would be equivalent with Bitcoin moving and closing above 71K.
Thank you for reading.
Your support is appreciated.
Namaste.
Massive Bitcoin Surge Ahead? Watch for USDT Dominance Breakout
First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always the inverse of BTC USDT.
USDT Dominance refers to the percentage of Tether (USDT) in the total crypto market cap. It shows how much capital flows into or out of stablecoins like USDT compared to other cryptocurrencies. When USDT dominance increases, it suggests investors are moving into stablecoins, potentially indicating fear or uncertainty in the market.
BTC correlation with USDT dominance is typically inverse. When USDT dominance increases, it often suggests that traders are moving out of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptos into USDT, leading to a potential drop in BTC price. Conversely, when USDT dominance decreases, it may indicate that traders are moving funds from USDT into BTC, potentially driving BTC's price up.
Due to the news of the war in the Middle East, selling pressure has been very strong in the crypto market for several days.
As you can see on the chart USDT.D is moving in the ascending channel for approximately 205 days. After USDT.D breaks below from the ascending channel we could see a very bullish move in the Bitcoin price and as you know Altcoins follow it.
Everything is on the chart.
USDT.D Pulling back into Last Point of SupplyUSDT.D Update:
The markets pulling back as expected, this is as USDT.D pulls back into the range with some momentum, creating a bearish pullback in BTC and alts in conjunction with my prior BTC and USDT.D analysis
Nothing to be worried about, simply pulling back into the range forming a last point of supply in the distribution range on USDT.D and a last point of support on BTC in its range.
We still have some pain to come where i anticipate USDT.D to push higher into the areas marked up before seeing the reversal back bearish, what matters here is sticking to the plan and remaining patient.
If your not allocated in the market, this pullback will provide ample opportunity to get some exposure and risk on before the next bullish leg in the market as USDT.D breaks down out of this range. This will be one of the last chances you get to get in coins that are still priced in discounts relative to the HTF!
As price has pushed into this area im seeing an increase in volume from the latest 2 daily candles which is a good sign imo as we come into this key area and supply. However, theres no signs yet to suggest the trend on USDT.D is over and we remain bullish on the daily and 4h as we push into the range high.
As a result, im still expecting more pain in the market and red until USDT.D tops out and there is still room to the upside for it to push into as shown on the chart. I remain patient here and confident in my bias and idea still as nothing has changed at all.
There is a lot of resistance coming up on USDT.D and id be surprised to see it continue to the upside when theres a lot of levels to clear in this range as well as the prior resistance at 6.51% and the PSY at 5.90%. These areas key areas and im looking for USDT.D to reject from these areas, with high volume before breaking down from the 4h into the daily and then pro trend in line with the HTF picture as discussed here: free-analysis-channel.
Patience needed here and some confirmations from these areas over the coming week or so!
Never surprised, never worried and always composed 🫡
USDT.D Update - Oct 02 2024USDT dominance has followed previous analysis beautifully. The reaction to 5.3% zone was strong indeed and as a result the whole market dumped heavily.
The next important area ahead of USDT.D is 5.99% - 6.04% zone where a reaction can be expected but judging by the strength of the recent move, it's high possibility that USDT.D will push through the mentioned zone and will reach higher levels. So Sell strategy is advised for now.
Everything going by the plan!Hello Traders,
Based on my previous post DOM reached 5.70% with a little push after the escalated war news in the Middle East. But again BTC was on the path of free fall even before the war.
The chart has developed a small double top that should retest the monthly open the following days.
There is the possibility that DOM might try to create LH at around the 5.85 - 5.95% zone cause we are waiting for Israel to respond to yesterday's attack.
Let's see what the chart will give us next.
Bitcoin Faces Bearish Pressure: Analysis Based on USDT.DAs of October 2024, Bitcoin appears to be entering a period of heightened bearish pressure, with USDT (Tether) market cap dominance signaling significant shifts in investor sentiment and risk management across the cryptocurrency markets. The USDT.D (USDT dominance) chart reflects market behavior that points towards reduced confidence in speculative assets such as Bitcoin, with the increase in USDT dominance indicating that traders are moving funds into stable assets. Let’s explore this in further detail, combining technical analysis with fundamental and geopolitical factors.
Sentiment Shift: USDT Dominance on the Rise
The chart indicates that USDT dominance is currently trending upward, hovering at around 5.7%. With a clear upward trajectory from its lows of 3.8%, this suggests that more market participants are parking their capital in USDT. This rising USDT dominance is often interpreted as a bearish signal for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, as it implies that investors are seeking safety in stablecoins, rather than taking on the risk of volatile crypto assets.
Notably, the price action of USDT dominance is testing key Bollinger Band levels. The red bands, indicating higher volatility zones, suggest that there is a heightened probability of a further spike in dominance. As USDT dominance pushes higher into the Bollinger Band range, Bitcoin and other speculative assets face selling pressure. The chart shows a growing preference for stability, which coincides with Bitcoin's decreasing speculative appeal in the current environment.
Rising ATR: Volatility Building in the Market
The Average True Range (ATR) percentage on the chart points towards increased volatility, sitting at 32.6%, and climbing to a peak of 46.9%. This heightened volatility, indicated by the widening ATR band, signals increasing uncertainty in the market. Historically, such volatility is often followed by bearish moves for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
As volatility grows, traders and institutions typically seek refuge in less volatile assets, pushing them towards USDT or other stablecoins. The increase in ATR% suggests a continued trend of traders reducing their exposure to Bitcoin in favor of more stable investments. The consistent rise in the ATR percentage alongside the growing USDT dominance strongly suggests that the market expects a period of heightened turbulence for Bitcoin.
Fundamental Analysis: Stubborn Inflation, Central Bank Tightening, and Institutional Pullback
Bitcoin’s bearish sentiment can be linked to broader macroeconomic factors, where persistent inflation and tight monetary policies continue to hamper speculative markets. Inflationary pressures remain a concern globally, especially in regions like the United States and Europe, where central banks have adopted a more aggressive stance to tighten monetary policies.
The Federal Reserve’s ongoing interest rate hikes, aimed at curbing inflation, have made riskier investments like Bitcoin less attractive. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of speculative assets, as borrowing costs rise and liquidity contracts. The shift to USDT reflects the broader flight to safety as investors await a clearer signal from central banks regarding future economic stability.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin has also tapered. Many firms that entered the space during the 2021 bull market are now pulling back, reducing their exposure to cryptocurrencies. Institutions are becoming more risk-averse as concerns about tightening financial conditions, higher bond yields, and slowing global growth take center stage. This reduced demand from major market players further adds downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Geopolitical Factors: Global Uncertainty
Geopolitical instability is another critical factor weighing down Bitcoin's outlook. Ongoing conflicts, notably in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, have led to considerable uncertainty in global markets. Investors are now factoring in geopolitical risk alongside economic risk, leading to a preference for safer assets.
Additionally, regulatory scrutiny on cryptocurrency markets, particularly stablecoins and decentralized finance, has escalated over the past year. US regulators, for example, are increasing oversight on Tether and other stablecoin providers, but ironically, this has not diminished the market's reliance on USDT as a safe haven. The market's trust in Tether amid rising scrutiny indicates a broader retreat from volatile assets like Bitcoin and a preference for liquid, USD-pegged stablecoins.
Moreover, China’s continued crackdown on cryptocurrency activities and Europe’s regulatory frameworks have dampened enthusiasm in the space. These geopolitical tensions contribute to the bearish outlook, as regional instability and regulatory pressures keep risk appetite low.
Bitcoin's Path Forward
Considering these factors, Bitcoin faces significant headwinds in the near term. The chart analysis, with rising USDT dominance and escalating volatility, presents a clear bearish picture. Coupled with the current macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, Bitcoin is likely to experience downward pressure as market participants continue to seek safety in USDT.
The combination of central bank tightening, heightened global risk, and regulatory challenges makes it difficult for Bitcoin to regain the speculative momentum it enjoyed during previous bull markets. While Bitcoin has historically shown resilience, its ability to recover in the current environment looks increasingly uncertain.
In conclusion, the growing dominance of USDT in the crypto market reflects a broader shift away from risk assets like Bitcoin. With rising volatility and macroeconomic challenges, the bearish pressure on Bitcoin is likely to persist in the coming months, barring any major shifts in the global financial or regulatory landscape. Investors should remain cautious and consider hedging strategies as the cryptocurrency market enters a more uncertain phase.
Tether's Dominance Analysis (1D)First of all you should know that "USDT Dominance" is always moving inverse of BTCUSDT .
One of the indexes that helps our risk management is Tether Dominance.
As you can see, this index can go up to the yellow circle and then it will not be rejected.
For risk management, until Tether's dominance reaches the yellow circle, we enter the symbols we analyzed with small volumes or we do not enter.
When this index reaches the range of the yellow circle, we will look for buy/long positions on Bitcoin and some altcoins.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
BTC Rally TargetsMy Potential Targets for a Local Top on BTC/Crypto is the 20W SMA for USDT.D and the zone between 4.71 - 4.81.
Confluence with 1D RSI (it should be in bottom zone by 1st, if not 2nd Target.
The zone and MA has acted as Support 3 times previously in 2024:
July 29th, 2024
July 22nd, 2024
June 17th, 2024
I will be watching those areas for a bounce in USDT.D which would correlated with a local top in Crypto/BTC
USDT.D Index Analysis: Bullish Breakout Imminent?The USDT.D index is showing strong signs of a bullish breakout after successfully breaking through its dynamic resistance range. Following a surge in demand near the critical 5.11 level, USDT.D has embarked on a short-term uptrend. A sustained move above the current dynamic resistance could further fuel this rally, potentially leading to a test of higher resistance levels in the near future.
Stay informed: Keep a close eye on USDT.D's price action for potential confirmations of the breakout and subsequent target levels.
What are your overall thoughts ?
USDT Dominance Rebounded from the Support!Hello Traders,
I hope you are all doing well.
USDT dominance has rebounded as per our previous analysis. It bounced perfectly off the 5.20% support trendline, causing BTC and other altcoins to drop.
If the dominance continues to rally from here, be prepared for a significant market crash. On the positive side, this could present a good opportunity to buy BTC and some altcoins at lower prices.
For now, consider staying in USDT and avoiding high-leverage long trades. Be cautious and always conduct your own research before investing.
Thanks.
% USDT Dominance is giving us the bigger picture.I have been trying to scalp trade crypto profitable since 2017. After looking at all the wrong places I concluded that TA in USDT Dom chart is the best way to go. Just keeping everything clean and understandable with Price Action in DOM chart you can see the big picture for the market, even on lower TF.
At 1H TF Dom will retest the 5.70% level leading to a market dump the following 10-12 days before it starts to drop and lead the bullish cycle mid/end of October.
USDT.D Wyckoff Distribution Profile - Bullish Q4 Upon UsUSDT.D Distributing as BTC accumulates.... The Perfect Storm and great times ahead in Q4 are upon us!
As BTC sets up in its accumulation range near perfectly aligned to the accumulation schematic i shared prior.
USDT.D is setting up near perfectly according to the Wyckoff distribution schematic too, which is no surprise as their relationship is inverse.
A pullback is needed and forming in the market, forming phase 3 of the profile into last points of support and last points of supply.
Phase D to follow - The expansion out of the range, leading us into a beautiful Q4!
Just as BTC looks to be in an accumulation range, USDT.D looks like its forming a local distribution range as expected at these levels and as ive said plenty of times prior.
When I delve into the daily TF it becomes more apparent and easier to see, just like it is on the BTC accumulation range.
USDT.D has pushed into the FVG i was looking at and come lower into the range lows and closed bearish on the daily below the prior swing low indicating weakness.
USDT.D is naturally having a pullback now after taking SSL and filling all the FVGs in the range, and BTC and the market is also having a pullback as this trends up with it being inverse.
As im seeing this as a distribution range, i expect this to push back into the upper bound of the range into supply and form a last point of supply in a distribution profile, before continuing bearish pro trend and truly breaking to the downside throughout Q4. This is the same as my BTC analysis where im looking for a BTC pullback into a LPS before continued upside into new ATHs.
This in turn sets us up for a bullish Q4 in the market as USDT.D breaks down bearish pro trend and into the HTF targets around 3.73%, whilst BTC pushes into new ATHs alongside a bullish market.
We are not prepared enough for whats to follow 🚀
USDT Dominance: Crucial decisive point!!Join our community and start your crypto journey today for:
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Let's analyse USDT dominance on Shorter Time frame:
USDT dominance is currently at the channel support within a parallel channel and has been following a falling wedge pattern since reaching the channel's upper boundary.
Two potential scenarios could unfold:
Scenario 1: USDT.D bounces off the channel support, moving back towards the middle of the channel. This could create a mid-term bearish trend, potentially pushing BTC below $60k.
Scenario 2: USDT.D breaks downward through the channel, hitting the 5.06% level. This would likely propel BTC further towards FWB:67K and beyond.
In either case, the market is set for a significant shift within the next 1-2 weeks. Be ready!
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Happy Trading!!