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Bitcoin Under PressureBitcoin remains mired in a bearish trend as price action struggles below key moving averages—the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—all of which point to sustained downside pressure. On the higher timeframes, a clear descending trendline from the April–May highs remains firmly intact, reinforcing the macro downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover in the neutral-to-lower zones, with recent bounces still failing to cross bullish thresholds. A short-term relief rally emerged post-news volatility, with price attempting to retest the supply zone between $103.9K and $104K—a region of confluence with bearish Fibonacci levels and previous order blocks. However, rejection at this level could set the stage for a further breakdown, targeting the $96.3K–$95.5K range. In the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, Fibonacci retracements and a climbing RSI suggest short-term relief is plausible, but a lower high formation would confirm continued bearish control. BTC remains technically vulnerable despite short-term bounces, while geopolitical events and U.S. policy narratives shape market sentiment. Yet behind the volatility, continued ETF inflows, stablecoin stability, and altcoin resilience signal a market that, while cautious, remains fundamentally engaged. Traders and investors alike should stay focused on key resistance levels for BTC, monitor developments in Middle Eastern tensions and U.S. crypto policy, and watch ETF and stablecoin flows as barometers of broader market conviction.
Short
by lesnermj
Need to wait for the key turning point.The Bitcoin market has currently broken below the key support level of 100,300, confirming a downward trend reversal. A daily-level recovery rally is now underway, and the 4-hour wave structure has not yet concluded. First, the downside target is seen at 95,000 to 98,000. Next week, the key turning point at 92,000 will likely determine the low of a rebound. Although this rebound low is not the ultimate bottom, it will trigger a relatively strong rebound after formation. you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results. Trading Strategy: buy@95000-95500 TP:97500-98000
Short
by MyronWilson
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you Analysis of Market Dynamics Under Geopolitical Conflicts The current conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a critical phase of "reciprocal retaliation". In the early morning of June 22, Iran launched missile strikes on Israel, targeting military command centers and nuclear R&D facilities in Tel Aviv, while Israel carried out multiple rounds of airstrikes on missile bases in western Iran. This high-intensity mutual bombardment has broken the "limited retaliation" pattern of previous regional conflicts. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei explicitly stated the intention to "completely destroy the Israeli regime", indicating a real risk of further escalation. The U.S. stance in this conflict has become a key variable. While President Trump said it "may take two weeks to decide whether to join the war", he also emphasized that "it's hard to ask Israel to stop attacks", an ambiguous stance that has intensified market uncertainty. Notably, Iran has ruled out the possibility of nuclear talks during the conflict, and the breakdown of diplomatic channels has made military confrontation the only option—this could lead to geopolitical risk premiums persisting in asset pricing. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin's performance in geopolitical conflicts features "short-term volatility, medium-term divergence". During the Iran-Israel conflict in April 2024, Bitcoin plunged 7% within an hour, but it rose 5% against the trend after the U.S. airstrike on Iran in 2020. The current market's uniqueness lies in that Trump signaled "possible military action" before the conflict, giving the market a digestion period—thus, Bitcoin only fell 4.5% after the conflict broke out on June 13, showing stronger resilience than in 2024. However, if the U.S. officially enters the war, it may trigger panic selling similar to the early stage of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, which requires high vigilance. Bitcoin's current price of $102,500 is facing a dual test of geopolitical conflict and technical resistance. The reciprocal retaliation between Iran and Israel has not ended, and whether the U.S.参战 (enters the war) will determine the direction of market sentiment. Technically, whether the $103,000 resistance level is broken will guide short-term trends. Investors need to distinguish between short-term emotional shocks and long-term trend forces—geopolitical conflicts may cause short-term volatility, but the de-dollarization trend and the stability of institutional holdings provide long-term support for Bitcoin. In terms of operations, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of "light-position trial + flexible hedging": do not blindly chase breakouts, nor ignore pullback buying opportunities. Remember: in the fog of geopolitics, real opportunities often lie at the intersection of market panic and rationality, and risk control is always the first principle of investment. Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you BTCUSDT BUY@101000~102000 SL:99500 TP:103000~104000
Long
by David_Wilson1
Bitcoin and the geopolitical news BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P Advanced Technical Analysis of Bitcoin's Structure – Current Situation on Smaller Timeframes We notice a symmetrical triangle forming on the small timeframes (1-hour and 4-hour), centered in a critical area. Historically, when this price pattern forms, Bitcoin takes no more than three days to confirm its trend. Therefore, the close of the third-day candlestick will serve as a pivotal turning point. 🔹 Immediate Support: 103,400 🔹 Strong Support: 102,500 — a daily low + institutional liquidity zone 🔹 First Resistance: 105,600 — associated with a convergence of moving averages (EMAs) 🔹 Main Resistance: 106,700 — a crossover with the 200-period moving average, which can be described as the largest psychological barrier --- Possible Scenarios: ☑️ Positive Scenario: If 105,600 is breached, we are expected to witness an upward movement targeting: 108,000 110,000 118,000 (potentially later) ✅ Catalysts: Positive US economic data Regulatory news supporting the markets (such as institutional entry and cryptocurrency regulations) --- ⚠️ Negative Scenario: If the 102,500 support level is broken, the path will be open to: 100,000 99,000 (strong psychological support area) ❗️ Potential Triggers: Negative inflation data Major geopolitical escalation (especially if it directly involves the United States) 🔴 Important Note: I'm not a proponent of trading based on news, but I'm including the US factor because it's the only one I consider truly influential in geopolitical analysis. The US entering a full-scale war would prompt American investors (who represent about 5% of active traders) to withdraw immediately for fear of long-term repercussions. 🔻 America is making history now, and Trump is managing the situation expertly. He is likely to avoid getting involved in long-term conflicts, focusing on concluding deals and wars strategically. --- Current Sideways Trading: Trading continues between the 103,400 and 105,600 levels within the symmetrical triangle. The future direction will be determined by the following developments: If the conflict ends and a deal is reached (especially if Iran surrenders), we will witness a strong upward breakout. If the United States enters the war directly, we expect a downward breakout to levels that may reach 92,000. --- Technical Conclusion: 💎 Bitcoin is in a critical consolidation phase with a delicate balance between institutional selling pressure at 106,700 and strong buying demand at 102,500. The next breakout will depend on: 1. A clear breakout of the triangle pattern 2. The strength of the liquidity accompanying the movement 3. Official US developments—regulatory or political --- Important Clarification: ❌ The recent decline is not directly related to the Iran-Israel war. Rather, it came as a result of: 1. Options expiry 2. Trump's statements about the possibility of direct US intervention, with the arrival of an aircraft carrier in the Middle East 🔍 A war between only two parties doesn't worry the market much, but US intervention is the decisive factor. ✅ America alone is the one that moves the markets.
by Learn2tradez
BITCOIN BEARISH SETUPBitcoin (BTC/USDT) – Breakdown from Double Top Confirms Bearish Trend Continuation The 4-hour chart of BTC/USDT (Binance Perpetual Contracts) presents a textbook double top formation followed by a confirmed breakdown below structural support levels. The bearish trend has already met its first target, and technicals suggest the move could extend lower toward the key demand zone around $96,000. 🔍 Key Technical Highlights: Double Top Pattern: Clear double top structure formed between $109,000–$110,000, followed by a strong rejection. Support Break: Price broke down below key support at ~$105,000, triggering a sell-off and validating the bearish reversal. Bearish Retest: After the breakdown, price retested the broken trendline (highlighted with a red zone) and failed to reclaim the range. First Target Hit: Price achieved the first projected support zone at around $101,000. Next Target: Based on measured move projection and previous structure, the next downside target lies near the $96,000 mark. 📉 Outlook: The structure remains bearish as long as BTC trades below the broken support-turned-resistance zone (~$105,000). Momentum favors continued downside toward the next key zone unless a significant bullish reversal signal emerges.
Short
by traderchamp_
BTC: Bias Map 18/06/25Daily Bias Map: - Bitcoin is trading within a HTF range between 110,700 and 100,700. - Mid range sits around 105,700 aligning with a 4H bearish fair value gap. - Higher timeframes are trending down no justification for looking at longs here. Especially after losing 106,500 - FOMC today at 7PM UK time - Expecting major volatility looking to short any spike into resistance or inefficiencies. - A scalp long might be valid around 104,115 (demand zone + 30min SFP), but that’s tactical only. - No reason to flip bullish geopolitical tension (Israel/Iran) adds further downside risk. - Main plan: scalp long if triggered early, then look to short FOMC-driven upside move. - Risk is tight. If setups aren’t clean, I’ll sit out and wait for the FOMC dust to settle.
by Ryn8111
BTC - Getting 2021 Double Top/Bearish VibesLooking at the weekly chart for BTC, I'm seeing similar price action from when we double topped in 2021. We hit the top of the channel, corrected, and then had a slightly higher high before going down hard. Again we hit the top of the channel, had a strong correction, only to hit it again for a slightly higher high. But the signs of market weakness are showing in the indicators and price action. Not to mention war is looming between Israel and Iran. I'm taking a defensive posture here. I think if the bears take control, we could hit the $60k liquidity area that we missed on the last correction. We can reassess the market better at the time based on the price action and current events.
Short
by jpbrown1023
Breakdown: BTC/USDT 15m – Riding the Trend 🔹 Smart Money Confluences: CHoCH at the bottom with a clear liquidity sweep (LL formed, then reversal) Multiple FVGs aligned with structure—price keep respecting mitigation blocks POI + OB near $99,800 gave the final long confirmation BOS and strong HHs show clean bullish order flow 🟩 Premium/Discount Zones: You entered at da discount, targeting premium—textbook ICT Midline equilibrium held nicely before bullish continuation. 💡 Final Push: Price is consolidating under weak high and buy-side imbalance. Possible continuation if new FVG near $105k holds 🔔 Watch for: Higher timeframe liquidity grab above $106k Rejection near inefficiency = potential partial TP zone
by rotezsolutions
Measured move target madePrice bounced near the target and has been confirmed by the 4 hour SAR. The 4 hour SAR is currently on a bearish retrace relative to the daily SAR. As long as the Daily SAR is above price, the bearish Wolfewave is still in play. Price is anticipated to go lower than what the 4 hour SAR has established as support. To see more details and for faster movement, we look to the shorter intervals. Shorter interval price action could invalidate longer interval patterns.
by FibonacciTradingCrew
Major Support Confluence, Tactical Rebound or Looming Flush?__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Momentum: BTC is working a major daily support zone (102.6–103k USDT) with strong confluence across 1D, 12H, and 2H pivots. Technical rebound in play, but still no strong behavioral catalyst. Supports / Resistances: Key support clusters at 102.3–103.3k (2H, 720min, daily pivots). Main resistances: 106.4k–110k. Volume: Very high on 2H/1H near supports, hinting at possible washout/profit-taking. No buy climax identified. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Strong bullish signal from 1D to 30min (neutral on 15min), while lower TFs remain under selling pressure. Multi-TF Behavior (ISPD DIV): No excess or euphoria: market is waiting/compressed, caution is necessary in the short term. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias: Tactical bullish but cautious — confirmation on clean rebound needed to strengthen conviction. Opportunities: Technical entries in the 102.6–103.3k zone with stops below 102k (aggressive) or 97.5k (defensive). Profit-taking zones at 106.4k/109.9k/110k. Risk Areas: Invalidated below 97.5k (swing), potential flush down to 94k/88–89k. Heightened vigilance around macro releases. Macro Catalysts: PMI prints (June 23), Fed on pause, increased geopolitical risks (latent volatility and cross-asset caution). Action Plan: Prioritize active management: reduced position sizing, mechanical stops, and real-time bias adjustment based on volume and behavioral response. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D–12H: Major supports (D Pivot Low 102626.8), structural uptrend, strong Risk On signal, but no behavioral/volume extremes. 6H–4H: Ongoing technical rebound, moderately high volume, support confluence, BUT short-term TF pressure remains. 2H–1H: Very high volume at support, possible local flush, but still no bullish behavioral confirmation—monitor for rapid volatility. 30min–15min: Tentative stabilization post-support absorption, no clear psychological excess, risk of further downside if rebound not confirmed; Risk On / Risk Off Indicator is neutral at 15min. Summary: Bullish structural setup, but fragile micro dynamics—discipline and speed are key. __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental & On-chain Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ External factors: Fed on hold, US inflation slightly higher, robust economy, increased geopolitical risks (hot spots Israel–Iran, Ukraine–Russia). Latent risk-off sentiment but not yet materialized. Calendar to watch: June 23, 09:45–10:00 UTC (US PMI & home sales). On-chain: Low user activity, high institutional volumes, off-chain flow dominance, leverage high (mostly in stablecoins, limiting crypto-margined liquidation spirals), no euphoria or panic detected. Risk/reward synthesis: Key technical buy zone 102.6–103.3k (stop < 102k/97.5k), targets 106.4k/109.9–110k. Below 97.5k: bearish bias, defensive risk management needed. __________________________________________________________________________________ Final strategic synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC remains "structurally strong but tactically fragile": major support confluence and bullish sectoral signal, but persistent micro selling pressure and macro/cross-asset uncertainty. Only entries on clear technical signals, mechanical stops and active risk management offer rational short-term setups in this volatile and compressed environment. __________________________________________________________________________________
by Ox_kali
Long on Bitcoin. Bullmarket ahead!🚀 Entering a Degen LONG Position I'm taking a calculated long here, with the 99.5k level acting as a key support zone. ✅ We’ve just swept the previous wick lows, grabbing a significant amount of liquidity that was resting below. ✅ The market has likely completed a clean ABC correction, with a nicely proportioned A = C structure — textbook move. 🧠 From a macro perspective: The Iran war narrative appears to be fully priced in. At this point, only an extreme escalation (e.g. nuclear) could trigger a deeper selloff. However, current geopolitical tensions may actually fuel bullish sentiment, as they give the FED more justification to pause or cut rates — a catalyst that could ignite the next impulsive leg of this bull market. 🤞 Fingers crossed — let’s see this rocket lift off.
Long
by lucamodena
Bitcoin Key $103K Supports Tested, Swing-Bullish Opportunity?__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong bullish momentum on daily, fueled by the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator and MTFTI structure. Major supports identified at $102,600 – $103,300, high confluence (4H, 12H, 1D). Resistances clustered between $106,000 and $110,000 (240 & D Pivot High, W Pivot High). Volumes generally neutral; no buyer/seller climax. Directional trends diverge: overall swing remains bullish, short-term intraday still corrective. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Global Bias: Structured bullish as long as supports >$102,600 are preserved. Opportunities: Longs on retest of major supports, favoring daily/4H trend-following. Reactive shorts only on rejection at $104,500–$106,000. Risk zones: Below $102,600 = structure break. Prioritize cash/hedging. Macro catalysts: Waiting for September FOMC. Monitor geopolitical risks (MENA). Action plan: Gradual entries on pullbacks, disciplined stops below pivots, prudent sizing outside confirmed breakouts. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D & 12H : Bullish trend confirmed by the Risk On / Risk Off Indicator and MTFTI. Major supports intact ($102,600–$103,300). Volumes neutral, market in wait mode. Swing long favored. 6H & 4H : Upward momentum, no significant bearish signals. “Buy the dip” valid above support; healthy structure as long as key levels hold. 2H, 1H : Early micro-divergence signals (MTFTI Down short term), increased caution. Favor entries on confirmed correction or breakout only. 30min, 15min : Intraday correction, neutral/bearish volumes, aggressive long setups discouraged. Scalping only on exhaustion spikes, strict stops. ISPD DIV summary : No excess/panic, mature consolidation/range context. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator summary : Bullish across all TF except very short-term (>15min neutral). __________________________________________________________________________________ Fundamental & On-chain Synthesis __________________________________________________________________________________ Fed: status quo, US macro softening, market waiting. Geopolitical tensions: potential for increased volatility. On-chain: institutional predominance, low network pressure, no panic selling or retail euphoria. Off-chain: high derivatives volume, OI > $96B. Squeeze risk if catalyst emerges. __________________________________________________________________________________ Decision Matrix – Execution Plan __________________________________________________________________________________ Swing Long: Entry $103,200 – $103,800, stop <$102,400, target $107,000+ (RR>2:1) Scalping Short: On confirmed rejection $104,500 – $106,000, stop >$106,400, target $103,400 (RR>1.5:1) Strict risk management below major supports, position proactively on volatility/news. Cash/out below $102,400 or with major geopolitical headlines. Stay flexible; alternate range-buy/take profit until breakout volume or FOMC news. __________________________________________________________________________________
Long
by Ox_kali
BTCUSDT - 4H Supply-Demand + Order Flow ViewBINANCE:BTCUSDT is struggling to hold above the 103K zone, which has now flipped into resistance. Price recently tapped into the 104K–105K supply zone and faced rejection, confirming bearish pressure. The most recent short entry aligns with overhead liquidity absorption and weakness near the high-volume node (~105K) on the volume profile. We're now revisiting the previous demand zone (101K–102K), which has held multiple times but is weakening. A breakdown below this level opens up the next major demand zone around 98.5K–99K and possibly 94K if momentum accelerates. 🔻 Bias: Bearish unless 104K is reclaimed. 🔍 Watching: Reaction at current support and volume cluster near 100K. 📊 Tools Used: S/D Zones, VWAP, Volume Profile, Confirmation Indicators. 📌 Trade safe. Set alerts and don’t chase.
Short
by TrendAlchemy
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