Bitcoin - Bearish double top or bullish cup and handle ?As CRYPTOCAP:BTC reached a new high, we got a clear double top setup unfolding.
The question is now how this will unfold ? Honest answer : We can't know as price can unfold in many different patterns from here.
For now , we have to respect the bearish double top setup and therefore remain bearish on this as long as price is below 109.600$ .
BUT seen the somewhat good general market context for now and the potential for a surge in bitcoin demand, we have to be open to the possibility to turn bullish here when possible.
A double top setup can easily turn into a cup and handle setup, that means we could see price consolidate some more before rising again. But for that to happen, we need price to hold some key support levels , which for now is the 20day EMA in green on my chart. IF the 20dEMA is broken, we can simply look for the 50dEMA in black as the next potential support zone.
Also, from an Elliott Wave perspective, it's quite simple, if price move above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, although not always, more often than not we see price go up to the 127.2% and 138.2% levels around 120K here.
So, what can we do from here ?
For the bulls ? Simple, stay out and only look for setups on key support as mentioned above, for now you can use the 20dEMA for a small long entry with a very tight stop.
For bears ? Respect the short side as long as possible and use the support zones for profit taking and if support breaks look for new entries or to add to your positions if you want to be more aggressive.
USDTBTC trade ideas
BTC - SetupWe narrowly missed triggering our short entry at $106K.
If you’re still looking for long entries — this could be your chance.
Now is likely a good time to go long on MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN , potentially targeting the ATH region and beyond, But we don’t have clear target regions yet — they will develop over time.
Bitcoin – Entering a distribution phase after a bull trap?Since the second week of May, Bitcoin (BTC) has exhibited a textbook accumulation phase, with a well-defined trading range forming just below the previous all-time high. Beginning around May 12, price action became increasingly compressed, marked by a series of higher lows and relatively flat resistance, indicating growing demand and waning selling pressure. This consolidation structure persisted for more than a week, suggesting that larger players were accumulating positions in anticipation of a breakout. Now it could be making the Power of 3. Accumulation, manipulation and distribution.
Accumulation, manipulation and distribution
Eventually, this coiled energy resolved to the upside. BTC broke through the upper boundary of the accumulation zone with increasing volume and momentum, triggering a sharp rally and leading to the formation of a new all-time high. At that point, market sentiment turned decidedly bullish, with breakout traders entering the market, expecting continuation. However, the price failed to sustain above the previous ATH for long. Despite the breakout’s initial strength, Bitcoin was unable to establish a solid foothold above the critical psychological and technical level, which has now proven to be a key inflection point.
Soon after setting a new high, BTC began to reverse, shedding gains and retracing back below the former resistance level, which had temporarily acted as support. The breakdown below the $106,000 mark, previously the ceiling of the accumulation range, signaled a notable shift in market structure. What was initially viewed as a healthy continuation pattern evolved into what now appears to be a classic bull trap. This type of failed breakout often leaves market participants vulnerable, as late buyers are caught in drawdowns and early longs may be incentivized to exit positions.
Given this context, the recent price action carries the hallmarks of a Power of 3, where market makers and institutions may be offloading positions to less informed participants. This phase is often mistaken for continued accumulation by retail traders due to its structural similarity; however, the key difference lies in the failure to maintain new highs and the emergence of lower highs on any attempted bounce. The rejection above the ATH and the subsequent breakdown below $106K has introduced significant overhead supply, which may act as resistance in the near term.
Target levels
As BTC continues to trade below this critical level, the likelihood of a further retracement grows. The market appears to be transitioning into a phase of redistribution or distribution proper, where price is likely to be capped on rallies and pressured lower over time. It is reasonable to expect that Bitcoin could revisit $100.000 to mid-$90,000s, an area that may serve as a magnet for liquidity and a potential staging ground for the next major move. This region could represent a "Last Point of Supply" (LPSY) within the Wyckoff framework, typically the final area where smart money distributes before initiating a more decisive markdown phase.
Nevertheless, this potential pullback should not be viewed solely as a sign of weakness. In many bull cycles, such corrections and shakeouts serve to flush out over-leveraged positions and reset sentiment, ultimately laying the groundwork for renewed upward momentum. Should BTC find stability and demand re-emerge in the $95K–$100K range, it could mark the beginning of a new re-accumulation phase, leading to a healthier and more sustainable advance.
Conclusion
In summary, the recent breakout above ATH followed by a sharp reversal and loss of key support paints a cautionary picture in the short term. Bitcoin may currently be navigating a distribution zone, with downside pressure likely to persist as the market digests recent gains. However, such corrections are typical in broader uptrends and often present opportunities for strategic entries once the next accumulation structure becomes clear. Patience and disciplined observation will be essential as the market defines its next directional bias.
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BITCOINBitcoin is approaching a critical confluence zone near $100,000, where two major supports intersect:
– A horizontal support around $100,000 (previous top-turned-support)
– A rising trendline drawn from the 2023 rally, currently aligning near $98,000 – $99,000
This zone is technically significant. A bounce from here could send BTC back toward the $129,000 resistance level
However, a daily candle close below this confluence (especially under $98,000) may trigger a deeper correction toward $90,000 or even $81,000
Watch price action closely—this region is not just support; it's a trend-defining battleground
"Caught the Dip – Next Stop: Resistance Zone 1. Current Price Action:
The asset has bounced off the demand zone around 101,500 – 102,000 USDT.
It is now trading at 102,204.56 USDT, indicating early signs of the expected bullish move.
A white curved arrow suggests a rounded bottom pattern, often signaling a bullish reversal.
2. Demand Zone (Support):
Remains the same as the previous chart: 101,500 – 102,500 USDT.
Price reacted exactly at this zone and is starting to move upward.
3. Supply Zone (Target Area):
Clearly marked at 104,800 – 105,500 USDT.
This is where the expected bullish move could face resistance or where traders might look to take profit (TP).
4. Visual Reinforcement:
The large blue arrow indicates strong bullish momentum is anticipated.
The meme (Leonardo DiCaprio pointing) emphasizes that the reversal is happening as previously predicted — likely for motivational or engagement purposes in a VIP group.
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🧠 Technical Sentiment:
Bullish Bias confirmed: Price bounced exactly from the demand zone.
Momentum Shift is underway, as indicated by the reversal pattern.
A potential "Buy Confirmation" is in play with room to ride up to the 105K resistance zone.
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🎯 VIP Trade Setup Recap:
Parameter Value
Entry Zone 101,500 – 102,000 USDT
Current Price 102,204.56 USDT
Target (TP) 105,000 – 105,500 USDT
Stop Loss (SL) Below 101,000 USDT
Bias Bullish / Reversal
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📌 Suggested Title:
"Reversal In Motion – Ride to 105K 🎯🚀"
#BTC/USDT: Head & Shoulders Breakdown – $95K Incoming?Hey Traders!
If you’re finding value in this analysis, smash that 👍 and hit Follow for high-accuracy trade setups that actually deliver!
Bitcoin just broke below the neckline of a clear Head & Shoulders pattern on the 4H timeframe — a classic bearish signal.
As long as price stays below the neckline and fails to reclaim the $106.5K zone, we could be heading for a deeper correction toward the $95K–$98K support range.
Key Levels:
Breakdown Zone: ~$103.9K
Downside Target: $95K–$98K
Invalidation: Reclaim above $106.5K
Market is showing consistent weakness — small bounces are quickly sold off.
Let the pattern play out and manage your risk accordingly.
What do you think — short-term dip or deeper breakdown loading?
Market next move 🔍 Original Interpretation:
Support Zone: The red rectangle suggests a support level between ~102,800 and ~103,300.
Bullish Bias: The blue arrow anticipates a bounce from this zone, potentially forming a higher low before continuing upward.
Bearish Bias: The red arrow marks a potential resistance, predicting rejection and a move lower if the bullish breakout fails.
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⚠️ Disruptive Analysis:
1. False Support Breakout Risk:
A false breakdown beneath the support zone could trigger panic selling before a rapid recovery (fakeout).
Traders might place stop-losses just below the box — a perfect target for market makers before price reverses.
2. Volume Deception:
Volume increased during the sell-off but did not show strong absorption by buyers (green volume wasn't dominant).
This suggests sellers still dominate and a continuation lower could occur before any bounce.
3. Lower Highs Formation:
The last few green candles failed to break the previous highs, indicating weaker buying strength.
Price may form a lower high, hinting at a short-term bearish trend.
4. Macro Trend Consideration:
If this is just a retracement within a larger downtrend, the bounce could be short-lived.
Broader market sentiment or macro news could push BTC toward 100,000 support or lower.
"A volatile pattern of seesawing between bulls and bears"The recent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have slowed down, but institutions such as Standard Chartered still remain bullish on the long-term trend, with price targets potentially raised above $120,000. Meanwhile, institutions like Japanese listed company Metaplanet continue to increase their holdings of Bitcoin, demonstrating institutional recognition of Bitcoin's long-term value. However, it is worth noting that large wallets and old wallets showed synchronized selling in May, indicating some profit-taking pressure in the market. From the perspective of market sentiment indicators, the current market sentiment is rather complex, with both bulls and bears seeking direction and no strong unilateral tendency.
Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
BTC/USDT.P Rejection Confirmed? Eyeing Breakdown Toward 50% FibBitcoin just lost two critical levels in rapid succession:
1️⃣ Value Area High ($106,331)
2️⃣ Previous Monthly High ($105,000)
We’re now closing candles back inside prior structure, showing signs of weakness and potential distribution at the highs.
📉 The Bearish Setup
Price is hovering above the 0.236 retracement. A break and daily close below this level could complete what looks to be the right shoulder of a developing head and shoulders pattern. The distance from head to neckline lines up with a projected move down toward the 50% Fibonacci level ($91,500) — which also aligns closely with the POC ($96,888) as an intermediate stop.
🎯 Targets:
• Neckline/Break Level: $102,800
• Mid-Target (POC): $96,888
• Main Target (0.5 Fib): $91,500
• Confluence zone lower: 0.618 to 0.68 (watch for reversals)
🧠 Context Notes:
• The current 2-leg rejection (~8% each) gives symmetry to the pattern
• High volume nodes around POC could act as reaction areas
• This short setup remains valid while price is closing below ~105k and failing to reclaim VAH
If this structure plays out, it’s a classic example of a failed breakout turning into a strong breakdown — the kind of move that catches late bulls off guard.
How to use VWAP the right-way on TradingView
1️⃣ What Is VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)?
VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price. It's a tool that shows the average price an asset has traded at throughout the day, adjusted for volume. That means it gives more weight to prices with high trading volume.
✅ It helps traders and investors see if the current price is above or below the average price paid.
✅ It’s often used by institutional traders, such as mutual funds and pension funds, to enter and exit positions without causing major price moves.
VWAP = (Sum of Price * Volume) / Total Volume
2️⃣ Why VWAP Matters
I (Traders) often use VWAP as a dynamic support or resistance zone.
- Price below VWAP: considered undervalued by some 👉 may act as support
- Price above VWAP: considered overvalued 👉 may act as resistance
It acts like a magnet for price, especially in trending markets.
VWAP is also used as a benchmark for large players want to buy below VWAP or sell above it.
3️⃣ Anchored VWAP (AVWAP)
Anchored VWAP is a more advanced version of VWAP. Instead of starting at the market open, you anchor it to a specific candle (pivot high or low).
🔍 Why use it:
- Lets you analyze the average price from key market turning points
- Helps spot institutional interest near pivots
- More accurate for swing trading
When you anchor VWAP to a major high or low, it gives you clean zones where smart money might enter or exit.
4️⃣ How I Use Anchored VWAP
I personally anchor VWAP from:
- Major pivot highs/lows
- Breakout points
- Strong reversal candles
Then I watch how price interacts with it.
✅ Works well on 30m and 4H charts for intraday or swing setups
✅ Can be combined with fixed range volume profile for extra confluence
If you haven’t read my guide on fixed range volume profile, scroll below — it’s linked there.
5️⃣ Common Uses
✔️ Support and resistance zone in trending markets
✔️ Institutional entry/exit level benchmark
✔️ Reversion-to-mean setups
VWAP is used across timeframes. I use higher timeframes like 4H to spot trend zones, then zoom into 30m or 15m for entries.
Setting and more information
VWAP Explained by TradingView: tradingview.sweetlogin.com
Anchored VWAP Explained by TradingView: tradingview.sweetlogin.com
6️⃣ VWAP Limitations
⚠️ VWAP doesn’t work well in all cases:
- In sideways/choppy markets, it can lose value
- It is not an exact entry/exit signal, but rather a dynamic zone
- In FX markets, it’s unreliable due to lack of centralized volume data
Also, treat VWAP as a zone, not a line. Large players fill big orders in that area, expect false moves or liquidity grabs.
7️⃣ Mistakes to Avoid
❌ Entering blindly on VWAP touches
❌ Using VWAP without confirmation from price action or volume
❌ Assuming it always gives perfect levels
It works best when combined with other tools, such as market structure, support/resistance, and volume profile.
8️⃣ Final Thoughts
VWAP is a powerful tool to see where price is relative to volume-based value. Anchoring VWAP to key levels adds precision and insight.
Used properly, it helps:
- Spot where institutions might be active
- Confirm high-probability zones
- Improve entries/exits when paired with other tools
Examples are provided below to show how VWAP works in real-time setups. This guide is educational and for learning purposes only.
VWAP Zone and a Example trade CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Example Stock Market NASDAQ:AAPL
Example Resistance NASDAQ:MSTR
VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) helps traders see the average price weighted by volume. It's commonly used by institutions to identify good entry/exit zones. Anchored VWAP takes this further by starting from key points like pivot highs/lows for more accuracy. It's most useful in trending markets and works best when combined with tools like fixed range volume profile or support/resistance. While powerful, VWAP isn’t perfect it should be used as a dynamic zone, not a fixed level, and always with other confirmations.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
BTCUSD Analysis – Bearish Elliott Wave Structure UnfoldingAfter BTC recently made a high around 111,959, we observed a clear impulsive bearish move followed by minor pullbacks.
The current market price stands at 103,396, and based on the structure, it appears that BTC is unfolding a bearish Elliott Wave pattern. If this holds, we could be in the midst of Wave 3, which typically shows strong momentum and continuation.
Key downside levels to watch:
99,620
97,670 – This level also aligns with a bullish breaker on the 4H chart, making it a potential area of interest for buyers.
Strategy:
My current approach is to sell on pullback, targeting the formation of lower highs and aiming for a break below the recent lower lows.