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Is Bitcoin Signaling Risk-Off? Structure Breakdown Explained💥 BTC/USD Outlook – Is Bitcoin Losing Steam? 🧠📉 I'm keeping a close watch on Bitcoin (BTC/USD) this week, and the current price action is flashing some key signals. 🔍 Over the past several sessions, BTC has struggled to hold momentum, and we’re now seeing a shift in tone. On the 4-hour timeframe, the market structure is tilting bearish, with a pattern of lower highs and lower lows developing — a classic sign of weakness ⚠️📉. 📐 The most recent downside leg has caused a clear break in structure, and BTC is now retracing back into a potential supply zone, hovering around equilibrium of the recent move. This zone will be critical to watch for signs of seller re-entry. ⏳ On the 30-minute chart, I’m waiting for a decisive shift in structure — a break of local support or a failed rally that confirms bearish continuation. Should that play out, it could signal a high-probability short setup. 🪙 A breakdown in BTC often has broader implications — especially in the risk asset space. If we see weakness here, JPY pairs may strengthen as capital rotates into safer assets 💴🌐. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own analysis and consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. 📚💼
Short
by fxtraderanthony
Pullback Correction after a Sharp DeclineTechnical Analysis of BTC Contracts: As of today, on the daily timeframe (major cycle), yesterday closed with a small bearish candle, showing consecutive bearish declines. The price remains below moving averages, and attached indicators are in a death cross, clearly indicating a downward trend. With the trend being evident, two key points should be noted: First, guard against significant pullback corrections; Second, risk control must be prioritized under any circumstances, which is of utmost importance. On the hourly timeframe (short cycle), the price fell under pressure during the US session yesterday, breaking below the 100,000 level. It rebounded after hitting the intraday low in the morning. The breakdown level is near the 102,700 area. Currently, the K-line shows a large bullish rebound, and attached indicators form a golden cross, suggesting that corrective movements will prevail today. However, the breakdown level (102,700) must not be breached; otherwise, the corrective trend may fail to sustain, which aligns with typical price movement patterns. you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results. Trading Strategy: sell@102300-102800 TP:100000-100500
Short
by MyronWilson
Bitcoin StructureBTCUSDT — day Now we clearly respect the supply zones . The price has already beaten off the zone twice, and there is no desire to go higher yet. Also by structure: There was an explicit Break of Structure, then Market Structure Shift (MSS) - impulse change Below in the region of 93k - the discount zone, where there is a large liquidity (according to calculations - stops by about 17 billion) → Continuation of the rollback down → Liquidity collection from 93k → And only after that a possible turn up ❗️So far, I'm only looking for shorts from the offer zones - on junior TF, with confirmation on 4H.
Short
by AKonBoard
$BTC Breaks Key Support – Bearish Signal Bitcoin has lost the CRYPTOCAP:BTC Breaks Key Support – Bearish Signal Bitcoin has lost the critical 50 EMA on the daily chart, which has historically acted as a strong support level. This breakdown mirrors the 2021 double top structure and is now hinting at a deeper correction. 🔸 Key Support Zone at $100,000: Losing this zone increases downside risk. If $100K fails to hold, next visible supports are at $96K and $91K, aligning with past consolidation zones. 🔸 Risk Level at $104,500: A daily close back above $104.5K would invalidate this bearish view and indicate strength recovery. 🔸 Outlook: Wait for further confirmation below $100K for potential short setups. Avoid long entries until clear reversal signs appear.
Short
by CryptoSkullSignal
short bitcoin In my previous analysis i already gave a short target of 101k which is about to come by this week any short holders can hold their trade with SL above 104300 taking new shorts is a risky bet here, which is why ill opt out for this week and wait for further price for a clear view dont go for longs cause market have no bullish sentiments liquidity news fomc everything is against btc at this pont let market come at the support of 101 if it holds and all macro factors agree we can turn bullish stay safe trade cautious thanks
Short
by sksr1919
BTCUSD 1D | big consolidation 🧠 1. Pattern and Market Structure Identification ✅ Trend and Pattern: Bullish Flag • Structure: Price forms a descending consolidation pattern (descending channel) after a sharp upward impulse — this is a classic characteristic of a bullish flag. • Breakout volume occurred from the consolidation zone near the green support area → an early signal that bulls are active. • However, the price is currently retesting the breakout area and is testing the demand zone again. 📊 2. Volume Analysis • Volume spikes (purple arrows) occurred at several key points: • Initial breakout • Support retest • High volume during the breakout = valid breakout confirmation. • Currently, volume is slightly declining = a signal of consolidation and possible accumulation. 📉 3. Support & Resistance Levels • Strong Support: 96,961 USDT (marked by the blue line and breakout volume). • Major Resistance: 111,980 USDT (all-time high and projected target from the flag breakout). • Current Price: 103,272 USDT → sitting between these two key levels. 🎯 4. Potential Price Direction Bullish Scenario: • If the 96,961 USDT support holds, price could continue upward → the bullish flag target = projected height of the flagpole. • Conservative Target: 111,980 USDT (ATH) • Aggressive Target (if ATH breakout occurs): 115,000+ USDT Bearish Scenario: • If price breaks below 96,961 USDT with strong volume, it could invalidate the bullish pattern and drop further to the 92,000 – 90,000 USDT range.
Long
by RCT8
BTC-----Buy around 104900, target 106000 areaTechnical analysis of BTC contract on June 19: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small positive line yesterday, the K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous negative lines, the price was below the moving average, and the attached indicator was dead cross. The general trend of the decline was still relatively obvious, but in trading, we should pay more attention to the rhythm of the price range in the shock, so the operation should be decisive, not greedy, and do a good job of risk control; the short-cycle hourly chart yesterday's intraday support was corrected upward, the European session fell but did not continue to break down, the price support rebounded in the early morning, the current K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous positive lines, and the attached indicator was golden cross, so it is highly likely to break through yesterday's high of 105500 area within the day. Today's BTC short-term contract trading strategy: Buy at the current price of 104900 area, stop loss at 104000 area, and target 106000 area;
Long
by NuggetsWarriors
Bitcoin (BTC): Important Area of 200 EMA | Volatility IncomingWhat's happening in the world is having a huge impact on Bitcoin, but the worst is to come... Price is hovering near the 200EMA, where neither buyers nor sellers can establish proper dominance near that area so our "wait" game continues. We wait for proper confirmations of which side will take control of the 200EMA and once we see it, we will be trading according to that. Overall, as long as we are above the 200EMA, we are still looking for the $120K area, but once there, we will be looking for a BIG dump. Swallow Academy
Long
by SwallowAcademy
BTC Correction's 📉 Significant Bitcoin Correction During Uptrend After a strong bullish rally, Bitcoin has entered a correction phase, retracing nearly 25% of its recent gains. Interestingly, this correction aligns exactly with the 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart, marking a potential key support level. 🔍 Is Bitcoin’s Correction Over or Just Beginning? The overlap with the 200 MA could signal the end of the correction, but if this zone fails to hold, deeper targets between the 35% and 75% retracement levels may come into play. 🛡️ Potential Support Levels for Bitcoin if the Correction Continues: First support: 102,200 USD – 25% correction Second support: 93,200 USD – 35% correction Third support: 84,100 USD – 50% correction Fourth support: 74,600 USD – 75% correction
by EhsanZeydabadi
20
BTC/USDT 4H Technical Analysis UpdateCurrent Setup: The price hovers within a range (highlighted in red), bouncing off its trendline support. The RSI at 43 suggests it is close to the oversold zone, indicating a potential recovery. Bullish Scenario: If the trendline support holds, a breakout towards $108,000 is highly likely. (Blue arrow points to the target zone.) Risk Level: Watch for a breakdown below the trendline, which could invalidate the bullish setup and send the price towards the $100,000 range. Trade Plan: Long entries near trendline support (around $102–103k), with a tight stop loss. Target the upper trendline (~$108k), adjust as the price develops. Stay alert!
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
June 12, 2025 Historical Comparison Analysis [Wave Analysis]No one knows tomorrow but what if??? Here, we have a historical comparison between December 07, 2020 to June 13, 2022, and January 22, 2024 to present day. December 07, 2020 to November 08, 2021: • Uptrend • Flag (retracement) • Uptrend continuation • Range • Downtrend • Range (W or Double bottom pattern) • Uptrend • Flag (retracement) • Uptrend continuation November 08, 2021 to June 13, 2022: • Downtrend • Flag (retracement) • Downtrend continuation January 22, 2024 to May 19, 2025: • Uptrend • Flag (retracement) • Uptrend continuation • Range • Downtrend • Range (W or Double bottom pattern) • Uptrend May 19, 2025 to present day: • ....... JUST WHAT IF HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
Short
by MaestroPee
Bitcoin's Latest Market AnalysisThe recent escalation of the situation in the Middle East has triggered a surge in risk - aversion sentiment across global financial markets. As a risk - on asset, Bitcoin has faced certain selling pressure in a market environment dominated by risk - off sentiment. From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin has made multiple attempts to break through the key resistance range of $108,800 - $110,000 in the recent period, but has encountered significant selling pressure each time. On the other hand, the area between $105,000 - $103,000 forms an important support zone. When the price drops to this area, it attracts some bargain - hunting capital inflows, which provides a certain degree of support for the price. The price of Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate within a relatively narrow range. If it can hold the key support level of $105,000 and the bulls can regain strength, the price is likely to rebound to the range of $106,000 - $108,000. However, if the $105,000 support level is effectively breached, it may trigger additional selling pressure, potentially driving the price down further to $103,000. In extreme cases, if market panic sentiment spreads further, it may test the psychological threshold of $100,000. you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Long
by MyronWilson
SMALL RETEST on BTC and continuation of BTC TrendThe small range forming just under local resistance is weak and showing signs of exhaustion. Despite a possible red dot printing soon, volume is not confirming a strong bearish divergence, so don’t assume a major drop is guaranteed just yet. The “Uneven Butcheeks” pattern visually highlights imbalance A fakeout back into the range, or A flush to grab liquidity sitting beneath key demand zones. Key Scenarios Scenario A (Orange Path) A breakout through the overhead supply zone could trigger upside continuation toward $111,850. But unless it’s backed by strong volume and broader BTC strength, I’ll be fading this move. Right now, this doesn’t look like conviction from bulls — it looks like exhaustion. Scenario B (Purple Path) A rejection at current levels or a weak fakeout could break back into the demand zone. With thin structure below and low buy-side aggression, price could sweep down toward $102.9k–$101.1k, or even lower. If we get this move, I’ll be watching how buyers behave around the lower demand — that’s where bulls need to prove themselves. ⚠️ Strategy: Don’t front-run this — let the price confirm or invalidate. Watch volume. Watch BTC dominance. Until then, this zone is chop-heavy, and patience = protection.
Long
by petermichalides
Will Bitcoin's growth continue, or is this just a correction ?BINANCE:BTCUSDT After the weekend, the price showed a strong recovery. Currently, it is trading above the monthly and weekly pivot points. However, if these levels are broken without a subsequent buy-back reaction, we can expect the downward movement to continue as part of a higher-timeframe correction. Otherwise, we may see either a local correction or an upward move from current levels with the aim of breaking through the resistance zone and trendlines. All targets are outlined in detail in the video idea. Write a comment with your coins & hit the like button and I will make an analysis for you The author's opinion may differ from yours, Consider your risks. Wish you successful trades ! mura
by trading_mura
BTC at the Crossroads — $91k Demand or Deeper Flush to $76k?🎯 BINANCE:BTCUSDT Trading Plan: Scenario 1 — Bullish Reclaim: If price reclaims 1D 50EMA and $104k, bias flips bullish; look for continuation toward ATHs Scenario 2 — Base Case (Favored): Remain patient for a move to $91k–$92k; swing-long setup on signs of strength or iH&S formation If $91k–$92k holds, expect a summer rally and new ATHs later in 2025 Scenario 3 — Breakdown: If $91k fails, prepare for deeper move to $73k–$76k; this is the “max long” zone if tested Must hold here; below $73k–$76k, next support is $55k 🔔 Triggers & Confirmations: Long only above $104k + 1D 50EMA, or after bullish structure at $91k–$92k Major long only on strong support at $76k, with clear confirmation 📝 Order Placement & Management: Buy: On reclaim of $104k (trend confirmation) or at $91k–$92k with iH&S/reversal pattern Backup Buy: If $76k is tagged with confirmation Stops: Under $91k or $73k (based on entry) Targets: New ATHs for late 2025 🚨 Risk Warning: Losing $91k opens path to $76k; losing $76k is a major structure break Don’t knife-catch — wait for confirmation at each level
by Goldfinch_song
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) - Price Testing Resistance after Morning StarBitcoin (BTCUSDT) price is currently testing the resistance zone of $105,000 to $110,000 (yellow lines). A morning star candle pattern has formed above the 100 ema (orange line), which is also $100,000 price support. Some bullish momentum is forming on the MACD Histogram, however, Bitcoin is still technically in a short-term downtrend for the past 30 days. Bitcoin price needs to create a new uptrend on the daily chart, a series of higher-highs and higher-lows in the price, which could take several months. At this time, Bitcoin is still reacting to global news and stock market correlations.
by NoFomoCharts
Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youBitcoin Trading Strategy: Navigating $101,000 Volatility with a Three-Dimensional Model Current Bitcoin prices oscillating near $101,000 reflect more than just technical support battles—they embody an expectation gap between policy implementation timelines and institutional fund flows. This strategy constructs a "Policy-Funds-Technology" three-dimensional analysis model, using the U.S. *Genius Act* House voting process and Hong Kong's *Stablecoin Ordinance* countdown as policy anchors, institutional behavior differences (e.g., MicroStrategy增持 vs. Grayscale fund flows) as funding validation, and key technical breakouts as entry signals for a dynamically adjusted trading system. I. Policy Landscape: Dual Catalysts on the Horizon - **U.S. *Genius Act* Legislative Progress**: The Senate passed the *Genius Act* with a 68:30 supermajority, and Trump has publicly pressed the House to expedite voting, with markets expecting final legislation by mid-late July. The bill requires stablecoin issuers to maintain 100% dollar/T-bill reserves, effectively integrating stablecoins into the "digital dollar" system. This is expected to attract ~$20 billion in institutional capital via compliant channels. - **Hong Kong *Stablecoin Ordinance* Launch**: Scheduled to take effect on August 1, the ordinance has prompted institutions like Standard Chartered and JD.com to prepare license applications. The introduction of offshore RMB stablecoins will create new liquidity entry points for Bitcoin. II. Funding Dynamics: Institutional Long-Term Conviction vs. Short-Term Positioning - **MicroStrategy's Bold Accumulation**: The firm's holdings surpassed 330,000 BTC after a June 22 purchase, with an average cost of $88,627—current prices yield a 14% unrealized gain, demonstrating corporate investors' long-term confidence. - **Grayscale GBTC Contrast**: $46.3 million flowed out of GBTC in the week ending June 20, reflecting institutional portfolio optimization ahead of policy milestones. - **Tron USDT Liquidity Base**: With circulation exceeding $70 billion (50% of global USDT) and $80 billion daily transaction volume, Tron's stablecoin provides robust liquidity support for Bitcoin. III. Technical Confirmation Mechanisms for $101,000 1. Short-Term Support Validation: - Price forms a "Morning Star" candlestick pattern within $100,000-$101,000, accompanied by 20% higher trading volume than the prior day. 2. Trend Breakout Confirmation: - RSI rebounds from below 40 to above 50, coinciding with a decisive price突破 (breakout) of the intraday resistance at $102,000. **Trading Tactics**: - **Aggressive Entry**: Long positions on confirmed Morning Star patterns, with stop-loss below $100,000 (2% below support). - **Breakout Follow-through**: Add to positions above $102,000, targeting $105,000 resistance. - **Risk Control**: Maintain position sizes below 15% of portfolio, with profit-taking triggers set at 3%–5% intervals. This framework balances policy-driven structural shifts with tactical technical signals, enabling traders to navigate the volatility gap between institutional long-termism and short-term market noise. Today's BTC trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you BTCUSDT BUY@101000~102000 SL:98000 TP:103000~104000
Long
by David_Wilson1
Bitcoin Holds Strong as Market Consolidates — No Bearish DivergeUpon analyzing CRYPTOCAP:BTC price structure across multiple timeframes, I don't see any bearish divergence at the moment. Instead, the chart continues to print a series of bullish formations, including inverse head and shoulders patterns, signaling continuation of the macro uptrend. The current movement between $100,000 and $109,000 appears to be a classic case of a choppy or ranging market — in simpler terms, a bullish consolidation phase just below resistance. This kind of sideways price action, especially after a significant rally, often serves as a base for the next breakout leg. Despite geopolitical tensions like the Iran-Israel conflict, Bitcoin remains remarkably resilient. If such macro-level risk had any real impact, BTC would likely have already broken below the $100K mark. Instead, the price is holding firm, which is another sign of strong bullish sentiment in the market. The chart structure remains highly constructive — multiple bullish reversal and continuation patterns are playing out, and as long as BTC holds above the $98K–$100K support zone, the broader trend remains intact. This ongoing consolidation below all-time highs is a healthy sign of strength —
Long
by Beyoglu_Analyst
bitcoin bullish and bearish BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P bullish 🔹 Technical analysis according to Elliott waves (time: 1 hour) 📌 The pattern shown on the chart shows a complex structure that includes a complex correction within the larger wave (B), and the following is clear: 🔸 Main waves: Wave (1) up from the bottom has been confirmed. It was followed by a corrective wave (2) that ended near the 0.786 Fibonacci level = 102,575. Then the upward wave (3) started, and it seems that it has been completed or is about to be completed. 🔸 Current status: The price is currently moving within a small corrective wave, likely wave (4). Current major support is located at: 🔸 102,275.7 (very important level) 🔸 100,317.6 (in case the correction extends) 🔸 Critical resistance areas: For the bullish scenario to be valid, the resistance must be broken: 106,759 (0.618 Fibonacci ratio) 108,948 (0.786 – peak of wave C) --- 🔹 Important technical points: 🔸 The last correction (A)-(B)-(C) shows a clear triple structure, indicating that wave (2) has been completed. 🔸 The price is currently bouncing off the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels (104,402 - 104,923), which reinforces the possibility that wave (2) has actually ended, and that we are currently starting an upward wave (3). --- ✅ Conclusion: ✅ As long as the price is above 102,275, the upward scenario through wave (3) remains valid. ⚠️ Breaking 100,317 indicates the failure of the bullish scenario and a structural shift in the waves. 🔻 Alternative (Bearish) Scenario – Short-Term: If the price fails to maintain the current support at 102,275, we may not be in wave (4) but rather at the beginning of a new downward wave within a broader corrective scenario, as follows: --- 🔸 Wave Interpretation: 🔹 Wave (B), which completed at the peak near 108,948, likely marked the end of an upward correction. 🔹 The current downward wave from that peak could be: Either wave 1 of C within a larger correction, or the beginning of wave (C) within a bearish (A)-(B)-(C) pattern. --- 🔻 Potential Downside Targets in This Scenario: 1. Breaking 102,275 = Confirmation of the beginning of a new downward wave. 2. First Target: 🔸 101,484 (1.618 Fibonacci Extension – Wave 1 Expected) 3. Second and Stronger Target: 🔸 100,317 = Previous Major Support, Representing an Important Structural Test Area. 4. Third and Most Extreme Target in This Scenario: 🔸 98,800 – 99,260 = Possible Wave C Extension (Corresponds to a Larger Downside Scenario). --- ⚠️ Failure Signal: Remaining below 105,926 (Previous Sub-Wave Resistance) maintains selling pressure. Any weak bounce and lack of a clear wave 5 upwards = an additional sign of bearish dominance. --- 🔻 Conclusion: ✳️ The bearish scenario assumes that the peak at 108,948 was the end of corrective wave (B), and that we are now in a downward wave C targeting areas between 101,400 and 99,200, and possibly lower. ✳️ A break of 102,275 would be key to activating this scenario.
by Learn2tradez