This V-Pattern on SPX500 Is Stupid CleanHey, it’s Skeptic.
In this video, I’m breaking down a clean V-pattern setup on SPX500 — right in line with what I taught in yesterday’s educational post.
We’re starting from the Daily time frame and walking through the logic behind my long trigger, why the previous fakeout was actually useful, and how to set your stop-loss depending on your trading style (H4 vs 15min).
This isn’t just chart talk — it’s about reading the story behind the candles.
If it helped you see things clearer, give it a boost and drop your thoughts below.
Let’s keep learning — one trap at a time.
Until next time, peace out.
📌 Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
USSP500CFD trade ideas
SPX Breakdown or Another Push Higher?Hi y'all thanks for tuning in! Here are a few written notes to sum up the video.
Indecision at New Highs
After breaking out to new all-time highs, SPX printed a doji on the weekly chart, signaling indecision. This hesitation could mark the start of digestion.
Still Structurally Bullish, but Extended
The weekly chart shows SPX is still holding trend structure, but price is notably extended from the 10EMA. Historically, when price moves too far from key short-term EMAs, it tends to reset either via time (sideways chop) or price (pullback).
Daily Chart Shows a Shelf Forming
On the daily chart, price has been consolidating just under the prior high with small-bodied candles. This is forming a “shelf” around the 6,260–6,280 zone. It’s acting like a pause, not a breakdown. Holding above this zone keeps the trend intact.
Pullback Risk Increases Below 6,232
If price loses 6,232 (last week's breakout area and short-term shelf), it increases the likelihood of a pullback toward the 6160 or even deeper toward the 5970. That lower zone also marks the bottom of the prior consolidation box from earlier this year.
Seasonality Reminder
Historically, July is strong in the first half, with weakness (if it shows up) arriving mid-to-late month. So far, price has tracked that seasonal strength. Any weakness from here would align with that typical timing.
SPX CORRECTIONThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) faced strong rejection at the upper resistance zone near 6,400, where -243B was sold, signaling aggressive institutional distribution. This area aligns with the broader -3.4T monthly level, confirming it as a significant ceiling.
Multiple support levels lie below. The first key zone near 6,200 is being tested. If broken, deeper liquidity pockets are visible around 6,000 and 5,700, where 162B was previously absorbed. Further down, the high-volume August 2023 level near 5,000 remains a macro support with 920B of institutional activity.
Upside target (if reclaimed): 6,400
Downside target (if breakdown continues): 5,700 → 5,000
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SPX500 NEARING AN IMPORTANT FIB. EXTENSION RESISTANCEIn this weekend's analysis I find the SPX500 to remain BULLISH for next few days as we have strong closings outside the upper KC band and also touching the upper Bollinger band on the higher time frames from Daily to Monthly charts. It's also important to note that declining volume bars is NOT supporting the monthly rally, while MACD, RSI divergences are also sounding warning sirens that it's near a major correction territory which I have measure as the fib extension 0.618 from the October, 2022 base or support on the monthly chart. As signaled last week that we could be getting a capitulation candle soon to the fib target. Once we get a reversal candle on the 4 Hours it will confirm that the intermediate tops is achieved on the SPX500 and a correction is highly probable. So our trade thesis is Bullish until we get a confirmed bearish signal on either the 4H or 1D timeframe with Stop loss at 6377 level. Thanks for visiting my publication and trade idea on the SPX500. Cheers and happy trading to everyone.
S&P500 uptrend pause supported at 6355The S&P 500 slipped -0.12% after initially rising +0.3%, as Fed Chair Powell’s cautious “wait-and-see” stance on rate cuts dampened sentiment. The metals and mining sector dragged the index lower, falling nearly -4% after the U.S. announced surprise copper tariff details—excluding refined metal until 2027—leading to a sharp -20% drop in COMEX copper futures.
However, market sentiment rebounded overnight, driven by strong tech earnings. Meta surged +11.5% post-market on upbeat Q3 guidance and rising AI-driven ad revenues, while Microsoft rose over +8% thanks to better-than-expected Azure cloud growth and a $30 billion AI infrastructure investment.
Conclusion:
Despite short-term pressure from the Fed’s tone and commodity weakness, strong AI-driven earnings from major tech firms are likely to support a positive bias for the S&P 500 in the near term, especially in the tech-heavy growth segments. Broader gains may depend on upcoming inflation data and Fed clarity.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6470
Resistance Level 2: 6500
Resistance Level 3: 6545
Support Level 1: 6355
Support Level 2: 6315
Support Level 3: 6282
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
FOMC rate decision 30-07-2025FOMC announced no change to interest rate, but the new tariffs is the major player for the upcoming quarter, we shall see its effect on the economy and corporates earnings soon, then the fed can make better judgment whether to lower interest rate or not.
Disclaimer: This content is NOT a financial advise, it is for educational purpose only.
SPX500USD | Retesting All-Time HighsThe index has extended its bullish rally, printing a new local high at 6,286.5 before showing signs of slight hesitation with consecutive small-bodied candles.
Support at: 6,134.5 / 6,026.0 / 5,926.2 🔽
Resistance at: 6,286.5 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustains above 6,134.5 and breaks 6,286.5 for new highs.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 6,134.5 could trigger a retracement toward 6,026.0.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Tuesday 29 July: Forex Market thoughts The EUR has begun the week under pressure following the US / EUR trade deal.
EUR weakness could be out down to what they call 'sell the fact', meaning buy last week's deal rumours / sell (take profit) on the announcement. Or, more likely, it could be because it appears the US has the better side of the deal. Either way, all of lat week's EUR positivity has dissipated.
I didn't get involved in a EUR short trade yesterday, but there is a case to say it was viable.
The USD and JPY begin the week on the front foot. Possibly benefitting from 'EUR liquidity', or possibly due to 'positioning' ahead of this week's FOMC and BOJ meetings.
As things stand, with the VIX below 15 and the S&P still riding high, I maintain my view that according to market fundamentals, 'risk on' trades 'should' be viable. Which means staying patient and waiting for a turnaround, particularly on the JPY charts.
If that turnaround doesn't come, I could be forced to change my view.
S&P500 uptrend pause supported at 6355US equities were largely subdued, with the S&P 500 inching up +0.02%, marking its sixth straight record high, the longest streak since July 2023. Despite the headline gain, over 70% of S&P 500 stocks declined, revealing weak breadth and suggesting index gains are being driven by a narrow group of large-cap tech names.
Tech led the way, with the information technology sector +0.77% and the Mag-7 rising +0.79%.
Semiconductors outperformed, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed +1.62%, driven by AMD’s +4.32% surge.
Momentum is building ahead of key Big Tech earnings: Microsoft and Meta report tomorrow; Apple and Amazon follow Thursday.
Meanwhile, traders are staying cautious ahead of a busy macro week:
FOMC decision (Wednesday),
Core PCE, Q2 GDP, ISM, and nonfarm payrolls still to come.
Geopolitical developments include a possible 90-day US-China trade truce extension and Taiwan cancelling overseas travel, which may help de-escalate tensions.
On the corporate front:
Apple's India strategy sees it surpass China as the top smartphone source for US buyers.
Harley-Davidson may sell its finance unit in a $5B deal with Pimco and KKR.
Vitol rewarded top staff with $10.6B in share buybacks—a record.
Conclusion for S&P 500 Trading
The S&P 500 continues to post record highs, but narrow leadership and weak breadth raise red flags. With tech doing the heavy lifting, near-term direction hinges on earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Broader market upside looks fragile ahead of critical Fed and economic data, suggesting that any disappointment could trigger a pullback. Stay cautious and watch for rotation or retracement if macro or earnings catalysts falter.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6430
Resistance Level 2: 6470
Resistance Level 3: 6500
Support Level 1: 6355
Support Level 2: 6315
Support Level 3: 6280
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Weekly Review: Forex fundamental analysis The week starting Monday 21 July was another week of positive sentiment, the S&P continues to hit all time highs and the VIX remains anchored below 17.
The upbeat mood was propelled by an announcement of a tariff deal between the US and Japan. The market now thinks it's likely deals with EUROPE and CHINA will soon follow. All the while, earnings season continues to quietly slip under the radar (it's worth noting the upcoming week does have a plethora of huge companies reporting).
An election in JAPAN caused uncertainty, giving the JPY a bout of strength at the beginning of the week. I then found it difficult to decide if the US / JAPAN trade deal would be positive or negative for the JPY, ultimately the overall positive risk tone prevailed and the JPY ended the week softly.
It was also a week of two halves for the USD, the interest rate battle between the president and chair Powell continues to cause uncertainty. The FOMC meeting and the upcoming slue of reg flag US data will be very interesting. And could determine the underlying bias for the USD for the rest of the summer.
The EUR and GBP were prominent throughout the week, a 'hawkish hold' from the ECB, combined with positive PMI data and hopes of a trade deal, all contributed to positive sentiment for the EUR.
On the opposite end of the scale, the GBP ended the week bruised, weakened by another bout of 'soft data'. Which opened the door to potential 'relative fundamental' GBP short trades.
Finally, 'fairly hawkish' comments from the RBA'S BULLOCK keeps the AUD high on my to long list.
On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. I perhaps was a little bold in thinking the JPY post election strength was overdone, entering an AUD JPY long which stopped out. You might often think it's frustrating when a trade stops out, but then eventually hits the original profit target. Personally, I take the positive view that at least my original bias was proved correct.
The week was saved on Friday with a EUR GBP long, post GBP retail sales data and trying to take advantage of the positive EUR sentiment.
*As I write, it appears a US /EUR tariff deal is very close, which backs up thoughts of 'risk on' trades to begin the new week.
Trade 1: AUD JPY -1
Trade 2: EUR GBP +1.5
Total = +0.5%
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Third quarter and something we didn’t expectso I’ve been watching the markets for a while and honestly this new admin is doing something that many didn’t saw coming.
it's not even a full year yet, we’re still on Q3, but the impact on the economy is starting to show. what really gets my attention is the tariff collection, it’s been really high and from what I see it’s even generating some kind of surplus in certain areas.
at first I thought this was going to slow down the market or create pressure, but the opposite happened, the stock market has been hitting all time highs, especially in tech and defense sectors.
inflation didn’t spike like people was saying, that calmed down many investors and the flow of money is pretty obvious.
i’m not an expert or nothing but this first months looks like there’s a real direction and the money is moving in a positive way. still need to see how this year closes but if it stays like this, could be one of the strongest starts for a president in a long time.
just wanted to share my thoughts, what you guys think?
ECB on the agenda: The ECB is on the agenda today. I don't envision a particularly volatile event, although a continuation of the 'limited further cuts narrative' should see the EUR supported, particularly given growing thoughts of a US / EUR trade deal.
All in all, with the S&P still climbing, I continue to hold the view that 'risk on' trades are viable, especially since the announcement of the US / JAPAN trade deal. It's just a case of choosing whether to short the JPY or USD.
In other news, 'soft' SERVICE PMI data from the UK puts a little more pressure on the BOE to cut rates, arguably creating a GBP short 'catalyst' trade for anyone at the charts in that moment.
Also, a relatively hawkish speech from the RBA'S BULLOCK, keeps the AUD high on my 'to long list'.