Precious metals: rotation towards silver, platinum and palladium1) GOLD, a mature bull cycle running out of technical steam
For over a year, gold (XAU/USD) has been the undisputed leader of the precious metals segment, driven by a powerful cocktail of technical and macroeconomic factors. Long-term bullish targets, identified via an Elliott wave reading, have now been reached or are very close to being reached, suggesting a possible end to the cycle. Gold's outperformance has been driven by several factors: an annual depreciation of the US dollar, robust physical demand in China and India, a rush by central banks to use gold as a strategic reserve, and increased financial demand via ETFs and futures markets. Nevertheless, this momentum may now be running out of “fuel” as the greenback approaches a technical crossroads, US interest rates stabilize, and the geopolitical environment remains uncertain but largely taken on board by the markets.
2) Silver, platinum and palladium lag far behind gold
While gold's bullish cycle appears to be coming to an end, investors are turning their attention to the other precious metals - silver, platinum and palladium - which are lagging significantly behind. This is partly due to their hybrid nature: halfway between industrial asset and safe-haven, they have not enjoyed the same enthusiasm as gold during periods of sheer financial uncertainty. However, the situation seems to be changing: the first stages of a technical catch-up can be observed, notably in silver (XAG), whose recent performance has outstripped that of gold. This comeback is supported by an optimistic reading of COT (Commitment of Traders) data, showing a reconstitution of long positions. Upside potential remains intact in the short to medium term, supported by industrial fundamentals and converging technical signals.
3) Are platinum and palladium technical opportunities or not?
Platinum (XPT) and palladium (XPD), long lagging behind, are now entering a recovery phase. These metals, widely used in automotive catalysts, have suffered from the energy transition and the decline in internal combustion engines. However, this weakness seems to have been overplayed by the markets. From a technical point of view, the current configurations suggest opportunities for a rebound. All the more so as certain players are beginning to recognize the role these metals could play in industrial value chains linked to hydrogen and clean mobility. If gold is reaching the top of the cycle, it is potentially in these “lagging” metals that the bullish leverage now lies for the months ahead.
4) The special case of copper
Last but not least, copper (XCU), although not considered a precious metal in the strict sense, deserves special attention. A true thermometer of the global economy, it has long been held back by uncertainties over Chinese growth and structural difficulties in Asia's real estate sector. But here too, the scenario seems to be changing: the gradual recovery in industrial demand, coupled with structural tensions on supply, is paving the way for a bullish phase. Copper thus represents a bridge between industrial metals and speculative dynamics, an asset in a context of accelerated energy transition. In short, while gold remains a strategic pillar, the next big move could well come from a generalized catch-up of all the metals that have lagged behind.
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