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XAUUSD.F trade ideas

GOLD 1. Final GDP q/q Actual: -0.5% Forecast: -0.2% Previous: -0.2% The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated. 2. Unemployment Claims (Week ending June 21) Initial Claims: 236,000 Forecast: 244,000 Previous: 245,000 Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than forecast and near historically low levels, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued despite economic challenges. Context: Despite the drop in new claims, continuing claims (people receiving ongoing benefits) rose to about 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating some softening in the labor market. Economists expect the unemployment rate to edge up slightly to around 4.3% in June from 4.2% in May. 3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025) Actual: +0.5% Forecast: +0.1% Previous: +0.2% Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose 0.5% month-over-month, beating expectations and signaling some resilience in business investment. 4. Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025) Actual: +16.4% Forecast: +8.6% Previous: -6.3% Total durable goods orders surged 16.4%, a strong rebound following a prior decline, indicating a pickup in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods. 5. Final GDP Price Index q/q (Q1 2025) Actual: 3.7% This measure of inflation in the GDP deflator remains elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in the economy. Summary of Market Implications: The larger-than-expected GDP contraction signals economic weakness, which could increase expectations for accommodative Fed policy. The drop in initial jobless claims supports the view that layoffs are limited, but rising continuing claims suggest some labor market softness ahead. Strong durable goods orders point to underlying business investment strength, providing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. Elevated inflation as shown by the GDP price index keeps inflation concerns alive. Overall, the data presents a complex picture of a slowing economy with pockets of resilience and ongoing inflationary pressure. #GOLD
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Xauusd market update The chart you’ve shared is a 2-hour timeframe for Gold (XAU/USD), showing price action with multiple support and resistance zones along with potential scenarios marked by dotted lines. Key Technical Observations: 1. Current Price: $3,294.36, down 1.00%. 2. Support Zones (Blue Boxes): Major support around $3,230–$3,250 — currently being tested. This level held previously (mid-June), suggesting it could act as a strong base. 3. Resistance Zones: Minor resistance near $3,350. Strong resistance around $3,430–$3,450, marking a previous swing high. 4. Price Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If current support holds, price could bounce toward the $3,350 resistance. Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below current support may lead price toward $3,200, the next major demand zone. 5. Volume Profile Zones (Pink & Blue Highlighted Ranges): Indicate areas of previous high interest (accumulation/distribution). Current action near a high-volume node, suggesting potential for either reversal or strong continuation. --- Summary: Neutral to Bearish bias unless strong reversal signals appear from the current support. Watch for bullish confirmation near $3,250–$3,270 to consider long setups. Breakdown of this zone could trigger a slide to $3,200. Let me know if you’d like a trading plan or entry/exit levels for either scenario.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Mr_Zakrii
Gold reaches the lower support and makes a bold attemptWith the official ceasefire in the Middle East, risk aversion has returned to normal. Russia and Ukraine are now expected to return to the negotiation table. The situation that was in full swing last week has suddenly become calm. Then the focus of market attention has shifted again to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Federal Reserve Powell reiterated in his testimony to the Senate Committee on the semi-annual monetary policy report that there is no rush to act. The tariffs are unprecedented and it is difficult to predict the impact on inflation. Consumers may have to bear part of the tariffs. The trade agreement may make the Federal Reserve consider cutting interest rates, continuing its previous hawkish tone and suppressing the rebound in gold prices. Gold hourly chart; Short-term analysis of gold; The recent fluctuations of 1-200 US dollars have greatly increased the difficulty of trading for retail investors. It seems that there are many opportunities in a day, but in fact, the big market mainly appears in a few times. If you can't keep up in time, you can only watch the price jump up and down. The most feared thing is not to keep up with the market, but the price returns to the same point, but the principal is gradually reduced. From the 4-hour analysis of gold, there are repeated resistances from the bulls before the downward break; once the downward break, the market will go further short, and pay attention to 3280 below. The upper short-term 3330-50 line is the key to suppression. Only by breaking the bulls can the rebound continue. In terms of operation, sell high and buy low, and pay attention to the breakthrough! There are too many long orders at high levels of gold at present, and the market will not rise easily. The current international situation is so tense, and gold is still slowly declining. It is difficult to rebound sharply in this situation.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by VitoCamilla
XAUUSD 1H–Power of 3, Liquidity Grab, FVG Fill & Bullish TargetThis is a classic Smart Money Concept (ICT) setup XAUUSD 1H – Power of 3, Liquidity Grab, FVG Fill & Bullish Targeting OB + Major Pool. Accumulation at the bottom Liquidity grab below SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity) Expecting bullish expansion toward: FVG fills Break of BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity) Tap or break of OB (Order Block) Final target: Major Liquidity Pool ~3380–3390 🧠 Trade Plan: Entry: After SSL sweep + bullish confirmation (FVG or MSB) TP1: FVG fill TP2: BSL break TP3: OB or final pool zone SL: Below manipulation wick.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by King_Maker_FX
Hanzo Drex | 30-Min Break Out Setup – 200 Pips in Sight🔥 Gold – 15 Min Scalping Analysis ⚡️ Objective: Precision Break out Execution Time Frame: 15 -Minute Warfare Entry Mode: Only after verified Break out 👌Bullish Break : 3333.5 Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move. ☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual- Entry Intel Zone Activated: Deep Analysis ➕ 4 wicks connected at 3333 ➕ 7 wicks connected at 3329.5 ➕ Body Close at 3328 ➕ Body Close at 3334 ➕ Liquidity at 3344
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Path_Of_Hanzo
3
GOLD THE united state interest rate stands at 4.25%-4.5% the US10Y open the day at 4.293% and closes 4.26% a significant drop from may high of 4.62% the dollar index is heading to 96$ after open 97.611$ to close 97.313$. Final GDP q/q Actual: -0.5% Forecast: -0.2% Previous: -0.2% The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated. 2. Unemployment Claims Initial Claims: 236,000 Forecast: 244,000 Previous: 245,000 Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than forecast and near historically low levels, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued despite economic challenges. 3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Actual: +0.5% Forecast: +0.1% Previous: +0.2% Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose 0.5% month-over-month, beating expectations and signaling some resilience in business investment. 4. Durable Goods Orders m/m Actual: +16.4% Forecast: +8.6% Previous: -6.3% Total durable goods orders surged 16.4%, a strong rebound following a prior decline, indicating a pickup in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods. 5. Final GDP Price Index q/q Actual: 3.7% This measure of inflation in the GDP deflator remains elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in the economy. Summary of Market Implications: The larger-than-expected GDP contraction signals economic weakness, which could increase expectations for accommodative Fed policy. The drop in initial jobless claims supports the view that layoffs are limited, but rising continuing claims suggest some labor market softness ahead. Strong durable goods orders point to underlying business investment strength, providing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. Elevated inflation as shown by the GDP price index keeps inflation concerns alive. Overall, the data presents a complex picture of a slowing economy with pockets of resilience and ongoing inflationary pressures the interest rate remains 4.24%-4.5% ,the bond market remain weak on fiscal policy challenges and pending rate outlook. the 10 year bond yield is trading around 4.291% -4.26% and edge lower from fundamental outlook. gold on ascending trendline connecting April till June and found support at 3312-3314. buyers during newyork session will build momentum on technical to bridge 3350 supply . break below 3311-3314 will heading to my demand floor . #gold .
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) 4H Analysis – Bearish Momentum Continues📉 Gold Spot (XAU/USD) 4H Analysis – Bearish Momentum Continues 🔻🪙 🔍 Overview: Gold is currently trading within a descending trendline structure, respecting a clear downtrend on the 4H chart. After failing to break the key resistance zone around $3,400 - $3,420, price has continued to make lower highs and lower lows. 📌 Key Technical Zones: 🔴 Resistance Zone: $3,400 – $3,420 Strong selling pressure observed. Price was rejected here after a sharp rally. 📐 Descending Trendline: Price continues to get rejected from this dynamic resistance. Bearish pressure remains intact as long as this line holds. 🟦 Main Support Level: $3,280 – $3,300 Price has tested this zone multiple times, showing strong buyer interest. A break below this level could trigger further downside. 📊 Technical Outlook: 🟥 Bearish Bias as long as price remains under the trendline. ✅ Buyers may re-enter at the support zone around $3,280. ⚠️ If support breaks, the next downside target could be $3,240 – $3,220. 📈 Trading Plan Suggestion: 🔎 Watch for rejection at trendline or resistance zone for potential short setups. 🔔 Monitor support zone reaction for potential bounce plays or breakout confirmation. 📆 Date of Analysis: June 26, 2025 📍 Timeframe: 4-Hour (H4) 💬 “Trend is your friend until it bends.” Trade wisely! 💼📊💡
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VikingFx-Community
1
XAUUSD Expecting Bullish movementDowntrend and Reversal Initially, the market showed a strong bearish trend highlighted by the red and blue descending channel A bullish reversal followed after a double bottom formation around the 3315 zone which acted as a key support level Breakout Confirmation Price broke above the descending channel and is now showing higher highs and higher lows confirming a bullish structure A bullish break and retest pattern is anticipated at the 3331 3332 zone marked with a horizontal support box Entry and Target Zone A long position is suggested after the retest of the support zone around 3331 Target 3370 a major resistance level from the previous price action Stop-loss Below 3315 just under the recent swing low for risk management Risk-Reward Ratio The trade offers a favorable risk-reward setup with the green zone indicating profit potential and the red zone representing risk
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GOLD_FORCAST_PROVIDER
Could we be entering another phase of gold consolidation?Gold's impressive rally from 2023 to 2025 completed the two-fold formation of the cup-and-handle pattern. Notably, while gold would typically rally in response to heightened geopolitical tensions—such as the Israel-Iran conflict and the B2 bombing of nuclear power plants—it has instead shown resilience by retreating and displaying minimal sensitivity to these events. This unexpected behavior suggests that gold may be entering a consolidation phase despite the prevailing uncertainties. As a Tier I asset under Basel III regulations, gold remains a fundamentally strong investment and is expected to resume its upward trajectory, reaching new all-time highs post-consolidation. The $2,800–$3,050 range presents a favorable entry point for market participants.
TVC:GOLDShort
by bruceyam
GOLD recovers from around $3,300 area, short-term targetsOANDA:XAUUSD has recovered slightly and is currently trading around $3,332/oz, supported by a decline in the US dollar and US bond yields. The market is closely watching the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The US Dollar Index TVC:DXY is near a one-week low, making dollar-priced gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield is holding near its lowest in more than a month. As the conflict between Israel and Iran ends, geopolitical risk levels have disappeared, safe-haven funds have flowed back and thus gold is under pressure. From a more macro perspective, gold remains in an uptrend and real yields are expected to fall further amid continued Fed easing. In the short term, if the market reprices rate cut expectations to become hawkish, this could trigger a technical correction in gold. Economic data in the coming months will be particularly important for the gold market. If inflation data remains weak or the labor market deteriorates further, Fed officials could cut rates sooner or more significantly than expected. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to have taken effect on Wednesday, a day after both countries signaled a temporary end to their conflicting air strikes. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in June, reflecting growing concerns among households about job prospects and another sign of a weakening labor market amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday that higher tariffs could start to push up inflation this summer, a key period when the Fed considers whether to cut interest rates. Traders of federal funds futures are currently pricing in a cumulative 60 basis points of rate cuts through 2025, with the first cut likely to come in September. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has recovered slightly after testing the important support area noted by readers in yesterday's edition, around the raw price point of $3,300. However, the temporary recovery is being limited by the EMA21 moving average, followed by the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can also be considered as upside targets for the time being. In terms of overall structure, gold is still in an uptrend with the price channel as the main trend. On the other hand, RSI is also hovering around 50, indicating that the market sentiment is still hesitant and does not have enough momentum for a complete trend. Intraday, gold still has a bullish technical outlook, but a sell-off that takes gold below the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level would be a bearish signal in the near term. Therefore, long positions should be opened near the $3,300 area, with protective levels behind the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement. Notable positions will also be listed as follows. Support: $3,320 – $3,300 – $3,292 Resistance: $3,350 – $3,371 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3367 - 3365⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3371 →Take Profit 1 3359 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3353 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3301 - 3303⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3297 →Take Profit 1 3309 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3315
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
DeGRAM | GOLD held the lower boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis ● Price bounced from the channel floor (≈ 3 320) forming a bullish falling-wedge whose breakout target coincides with the median resistance at 3 348. ● Hidden RSI divergence and a series of higher lows inside today’s micro-range show buyers absorbing supply; reclaiming the wedge apex should accelerate toward the upper channel band near 3 375. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Spot-ETF inflows resumed and Fed-funds futures now price only one cut this year while real yields eased after soft US consumer-confidence data, trimming dollar bid and reviving gold demand. ✨ Summary Long 3 320-3 330; wedge break > 3 335 eyes 3 348 then 3 375. Bull view void on a 30 min close below 3 300. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by DeGRAM
12
GOLD Final GDP q/q Actual: -0.5% Forecast: -0.2% Previous: -0.2% The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated. 2. Unemployment Claims (Week ending June 21) Initial Claims: 236,000 Forecast: 244,000 Previous: 245,000 Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than forecast and near historically low levels, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued despite economic challenges. 3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025) Actual: +0.5% Forecast: +0.1% Previous: +0.2% Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose 0.5% month-over-month, beating expectations and signaling some resilience in business investment. 4. Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025) Actual: +16.4% Forecast: +8.6% Previous: -6.3% Total durable goods orders surged 16.4%, a strong rebound following a prior decline, indicating a pickup in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods. 5. Final GDP Price Index q/q (Q1 2025) Actual: 3.7% This measure of inflation in the GDP deflator remains elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in the economy. Summary of Market Implications: The larger-than-expected GDP contraction signals economic weakness, which could increase expectations for accommodative Fed policy. The drop in initial jobless claims supports the view that layoffs are limited, but rising continuing claims suggest some labor market softness ahead. Strong durable goods orders point to underlying business investment strength, providing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. Elevated inflation as shown by the GDP price index keeps inflation concerns alive. Overall, the data presents a complex picture of a slowing economy with pockets of resilience and ongoing inflationary pressures the interest rate remains 4.24%-4.5% ,the bond market remain weak on fiscal policy challenges and pending rate outlook. the 10 year bond yield is trading around 4.291% -4.25% and edge lower from fundamental outlook. gold on ascending trendline connecting April till June and found support at 3312-3314. buyers during newyork session will build momentum on technical to bridge 3350 supply .
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Gold’s Future: Contrary to Expectations?With rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, many analysts and global financial institutions have begun betting on a potential increase in gold prices. Some major banks have even raised their forecasts for gold to as high as $4,000 per ounce, raising a critical question: Will gold prices truly rise as expected, or are the markets heading toward a different outcome, one that sees gold’s future moving contrary to expectations? Recent history has taught us much about gold’s behavior during times of crisis. Investors often turn to gold during heightened turmoil be it political, economic, or even health-related, because it is considered one of the most prominent safe havens and a key hedge against inflation. Regarding the latest political tensions, gold has shown short-term positive reactions, often spiking in response to unfolding events. However, once markets absorb the impact, prices typically stabilize or partially retreat awaiting new developments or an escalation that could reignite momentum. This scenario played out in recent weeks during Middle East tensions, specifically on June 13, 2025, when gold rose by about 1.92% in a single day, only to drop 2.99% shortly after increasing all its gains. When comparing the current situation to past events, a familiar pattern emerges. For instance, during the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, gold prices initially surged but then started to disregard the ongoing war. A similar reaction occurred with trade tariff decisions imposed by the U.S. president where gold responded briefly to each new headline, only to retreat thereafter. In summary, gold responded to the latest Middle East developments with a slight uptick but soon absorbed the tension and returned to a more stable state awaiting a potentially more severe escalation. Technical Outlook for Gold Prices: Gold is currently trading in a downward trend on the daily chart, forming lower lows consistently. The current zone near 3366.804 is technically significant, acting as a strong resistance level that could push gold to continue its descent toward the 3225 mark. This bearish scenario would only be invalidated if the price breaks above 3451.130 and closes a daily candle above that level, signaling a possible reversal in the current trend.
CFI:XAUUSD
by CFI
Gold Peaked, Deep Analysis: MACD & RSI, Targets: $3,131 & $2,904Gold (XAUUSD) already peaked. The 22 Apr session was a clear top signal. A very strong one at that. The chart is showing a lower (red arrows) and overall distribution channel. Trading volume continues to drop. Bearish volume is predominant. Gold produced a strong rally, it lasted 159 days. Total growth amounts to +39% from bottom to top, starting November 2024, end April 2025. It's been 64 days since the all-time high. No new highs, no bullish momentum. Geopolitical factors that would push Gold to new all-time highs, a war, did show up recently, a surprise event and yet Gold's price failed to move higher. This is a warning signal. The RSI is weak now. Gold is trading very high, a very strong price but with a risk RSI. This is another warning signal, a strong one. Bullish would be the contrary, low price with a strong RSI. A weak RSI at this point can be interpreted as the bullish force being exhausted. The daily MACD is pretty bad. Trending fully down with no possibility of anything bullish. Here is the chart. This is a friendly reminder. Switch to Crypto. You've been warned. Namaste.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MasterAnanda
Report - June 26, 20251. Ceasefire, Oil, and Market Sentiment: Markets are stabilizing after a volatile stretch driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A ceasefire, brokered by President Trump, appears to be holding, encouraging risk-on sentiment across global asset classes. Brent crude has fallen back to $68.17 per barrel, erasing earlier war-driven spikes. Traders swiftly sold oil after Iran's symbolic missile attack on a US base in Qatar, interpreting it as a move to de-escalate rather than escalate. This rapid reaction, fueled by open-source intelligence and satellite imagery showing the base was empty, helped unwind the geopolitical premium in crude. Energy consultancy Rystad noted Iran even increased crude exports amid the conflict due to lack of refining capacity. With OPEC+ boosting supply and US shale output high, the market anticipates an oversupplied scenario by year-end. Strategists like Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects) expect crude to test $50–60, while RBC’s Helima Croft said the White House is unlikely to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, given sufficient alternative supply buffers. 2. Equities and Sector Rotation: US equity indices were mixed: the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% to 22,237.74, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dipped slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 1.1% to 16.77, signaling easing investor fear. Year-to-date, tech leads with XLK up 31.95%, followed by communications (XLC +23.46%) and discretionary (XLY +18.69%). Defensive sectors lagged: utilities (XLU +19.13%), consumer staples (XLP +9.15%), and real estate (XLRE -1.27%). Recent sector performance reflects a recalibration away from energy and interest-rate sensitive names. XLE has tumbled 4.65% over the past five days, mirroring declining oil, while XLRE’s underperformance worsened, highlighting investor caution in yield-sensitive areas. The growth/value debate continues: large-cap growth (IWF) was the only factor posting a gain (+0.29%), while small-cap growth (IJT) fell 1.2%, underscoring preference for quality and scale. 3. Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields: Rates edged higher. The US 10Y Treasury yield rose 2 bps to 4.32%. Germany’s 10Y bund climbed 3 bps to 2.57%, and UK gilts ticked up 1 bp to 4.46%, driven by expectations of higher issuance to fund increased NATO defense spending. US Treasuries across the curve remain elevated: 1Y at 3.99%, 2Y at 3.77%, and 30Y at 4.81%. Despite global easing signals, sovereign borrowing costs stay elevated, reflecting inflation stickiness and geopolitical risk premia. TIPs and agency MBS have outperformed on a 1Y basis, with TIP +4.7% and GNMA +5.76%. 4. NATO Commitment and Fiscal Risk: At The Hague summit, NATO allies pledged to meet Trump's demand for 5% of GDP in defense spending by 2035, a seismic shift from the previous 2% benchmark. While reaffirming Article 5 commitments, Trump emphasized US support hinges on European “burden sharing,” pressuring Spain for opting out. The summit declaration promises annual roadmaps and a 2029 review—coinciding with Trump’s potential exit from office. Germany’s Chancellor Merz called the commitment a moment of “putting our money where our mouth is,” but bond markets reacted with concern. The FTSE 100 slid 0.5%, and the DAX fell 0.6%, reflecting fiscal anxieties tied to expanded military budgets. 5. Policy Front – Trump’s Tax Push & Debt Outlook: The White House claims its proposed tax bill will lower debt via growth and tariff revenue. CEA estimates show debt-to-GDP dropping to 94% by 2034 with $8.5–11.2 trillion in deficit reduction. Yet the CBO projects the bill would add $2.4 trillion to deficits—and $2.8 trillion when factoring in higher rates. Trump’s pressure campaign on Senate Republicans includes urging round-the-clock negotiations. However, concerns linger among fiscal hawks like Sen. Ron Johnson, who warned of “an acute debt crisis.” 6. Credit Markets and Insurance Breakdown Risk: Credit spreads are holding stable, but US liability insurance is flashing red. Marsh data shows US casualty insurance rates have risen for 23 straight quarters. Executives at Everest and Aspen warn of a “breakdown” in coverage availability due to runaway litigation costs and “forever chemicals” claims. Everest’s reserves for US casualty risks now top $1.7 billion. Insurers are lobbying for tort reform, and rate hikes of 20–25% in excess liability are becoming the norm. This insurance squeeze poses a serious inflationary threat to businesses, especially in logistics, construction, and hospitality. 7. Trade Disruption – FedEx Feels the Pinch: FedEx shares dropped nearly 6% after warning of sharp deterioration in China–US freight, driven by the end of the “de minimis” $800 tariff exemption used by platforms like Temu and Shein. This lane, their most profitable intercontinental route, now faces structural weakness. While Q4 net income rose 13% to $1.65B, guidance for EPS of $3.40–4.00 (below expectations) reflects uncertainty ahead. 8. M&A Spotlight – Brighthouse Bidding Heats Up: TPG and Aquarian Holdings are the final bidders for Brighthouse Financial, a $3.5B life insurer. Despite interest from Apollo, Carlyle, and Blackstone, many walked due to legacy annuity liabilities and high capital charges. The strategic appeal remains strong: control over policyholder premiums enhances credit origination capabilities for private capital platforms. An exclusive negotiation could emerge in the coming week. 9. Political Heat – Warren Targets Private Equity: Senator Elizabeth Warren is probing PE firms (Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, Bain, Thoma Bravo) for lobbying efforts related to the “carried interest” loophole and private credit tax breaks embedded in Trump’s tax bill. The senator demands disclosures by July 2, while Trump pushes for bill signing by July 4. The American Investment Council responded that raising taxes on private capital would “kill jobs” and hurt innovation. The legislation, approved narrowly in the House, slashes taxes and expands debt—a key flashpoint heading into summer recess. 10. Currency, Commodities, and Global Trends: Brent crude trades at $67.95 and WTI at $65.18. Gold holds at $3,335, up 45% YTD, though recent profit-taking has slowed its rally. Silver (+26.2% YTD) and copper (+12.5%) also reflect bullish industrial demand. In FX, GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3705; EUR/USD is at 1.1681 (+0.02%). USD/JPY slid to 144.57 (-0.66%). On a 1Y basis, GBP and EUR are both up over 8%, while the yen is down nearly 10.5%, continuing its depreciation due to BOJ’s dovish stance. --- Equities: Current Positioning: Equities are delicately balanced. The S&P 500 is up +3.6% YTD, Nasdaq +3.4%, but Dow only +1.0%, reflecting the rotation into growth, defensives, and high-cap tech. However, small caps are under heavy pressure (IJR/SPY -1.05% daily, down YTD), and value is again underperforming. Tactical Implications: Overweight: Large-Cap Growth (e.g., XLK, IWF) – Mega-cap tech remains the secular winner (+31.95% YTD in XLK). Given moderating rates and weak cyclicals, expect further leadership unless yields spike. Underweight: Small-Caps (IWM), Real Estate (XLRE), and Energy (XLE) – These are vulnerable to tightening credit, low breadth, and oil retracements. XLRE is -1.27% YTD and XLE dropped -4.65% in the past week alone. Neutral: Financials (XLF) – The sector is at a crossroads. While yields support net interest margins, the liability insurance shock and credit pricing discipline weigh on capital-intensive names. Actionable View: Stay concentrated in quality tech and cash-flow-rich defensives. Consider rotating out of overextended discretionary and look for short-term mean reversion trades in oversold industrials only on technicals. Fixed Income: Market: The UST 10Y yield is at 4.32%, up 2bps on the day. Notably, the 2Y/10Y curve is flattening again (+55bps spread), but with upward pressure on the long end driven by fiscal overhang (NATO rearmament, tax cuts). Strategic View: Short Duration Preferred – Laddered Treasuries and 1–3Y paper outperforming (e.g., SHY +0.65% YTD). Long duration remains risky despite falling inflation, given massive expected issuance. TIPS as Inflation Hedge – TIPs up +4.7% YTD continue to provide inflation-linked protection. Elevated defense and healthcare spending bolster this theme. Credit Call: High-Grade Corporate (LQD) – Valuation remains stretched, but spread stability gives buffer. Prefer LQD over HYG or CWB, where spreads are at risk due to funding costs and insurance withdrawal risk. Action: Maintain a core laddered Treasury base, with modest high-grade credit. Fade the long end on rallies; use TLT as a tactical short if 10Y breaches 4.4–4.5%. Commodities: Key Developments: Brent crude fell sharply (-6.1%) post-ceasefire, now at $67.95. Markets no longer price geopolitical premium. Iran’s production rising, US SPR untapped, and China’s buying shifting. Gold stabilizing at $3,335 after peaking on war fears; silver remains stronger at $36.34 (+26.2% YTD). Outlook: Oil: Short-Term Bearish to Neutral – Expect continued selling on rallies unless supply chain disruptions emerge. Range: $62–70/bbl. Gold: Wait for Re-Entry – Momentum slowing but structural inflation hedging still intact. Look for re-entry near $3,200. Position cautiously if dollar strengthens. Ags: Avoid – Corn and wheat continue to slide. Corn -7.5% MTD and -10.3% 3M; soybeans -11.7% YTD. No catalysts to reverse. Action: Tactical shorts in oil remain viable unless Iran–Strait of Hormuz risk flares again. Hedge tail risks with gold but reduce exposure if USD rallies. Currencies: DXY weakening slowly, but USD/JPY still at 144.5 (-9.42% 1Y), EUR/USD firm at 1.1681. Sterling outperforming: GBP/USD +8.2% 1Y. Implications: Short USD/JPY Holds – BOJ still dovish, yen oversold, risk-on flows support reversal. High conviction macro long on JPY. Watch GBP/USD – Strong rally, nearing overbought territory. Use strength to rotate to EUR if ECB surprises. EMFX Mixed – Avoid high beta EM (ZAR, TRY) due to USD and rates. Selective value in BRL, INR if USD pulls back further. Action: Maintain partial USD hedge via EUR and JPY. EMFX traders should stay risk-off short term; low carry + volatile backdrop makes it unattractive. Credit & Insurance Markets: Everest ($1.7bn reserves) and Aspen warning of “coverage breakdown” in US casualty insurance. Litigation exposure (PFAS, data privacy, social cases) is a systemic risk. FedEx’s collapse in China–US freight (-6% equity) is a red flag on consumption + supply chain health. Expect more insurers to restrict exposure to high-litigation US states or raise rates >25%. Positioning: Be cautious on mid-cap financials, reinsurers, and commercial real estate debt with liability linkage. Corporate credit: Avoid HY and convertibles. LQD remains the safe zone.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
GDP and price range accumulated above 3300⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices held firm during the North American session on Wednesday, climbing over 0.30% as easing tensions between Israel and Iran boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, disappointing US housing data could prompt future action from the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's continued hawkish stance has limited further upside for the precious metal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $3,334, up 0.34%, as the US Dollar pares earlier gains and Wall Street posts modest advances. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: moving in accumulation range following 2 trend lines, trading above 3300 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3364- 3366 SL 3371 TP1: $3352 TP2: $3345 TP3: $3330 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3302-$3300 SL $3295 TP1: $3315 TP2: $3328 TP3: $3340 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
1