Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to youThe current gold price stands at $3,288. The gold market was volatile in the early session: after the opening, prices plunged all the way, hitting a low of $3,247 at one point. However, it quickly rebounded, climbing back above $3,280. It was quite a roller-coaster ride, full of thrills.
**Influencing Factors**
- **Geopolitical Situation**: While the Middle East (situation) had eased earlier—such as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which weakened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset (COMEX gold futures fell over 2% on the day the ceasefire was reached)—Trump stated today that he would consider bombing Iran again and abandon plans to lift sanctions. This reignited market safe-haven sentiment, attracting some bargain-hunting buying to support gold prices.
- **Monetary Policy**: Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been fluctuating. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 81.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged in July, and a 76% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut by September. The previously released U.S. PCE data exceeded expectations, and coupled with the impact of tariff policies on the pace of rate cuts, these factors are swaying gold’s trend.
- **Capital Flows**: Global gold ETF demand turned negative in May, with funds in North America and Asia leading the outflows. This put pressure on the gold market—it’s like the water flowing into the gold market has dwindled, or even started to flow out, pulling prices downward.
**Technical Analysis**
Last week, gold’s overall trend leaned toward a pullback, with the lowest price touching around $3,255, and the weekly chart closing with two consecutive. Gold even breached $3,250 last Friday, but rebounded slightly at the start of this week supported by that level. However, there is significant pressure in the $3,300–$3,310 range above. If gold can stand firmly above $3,300 this week, the short-term trend may shift. But if it continues to trade below $3,300, it will likely keep falling, possibly testing around $3,200.
Moreover, the non-farm payroll data will be released this Thursday (due to the U.S. market closure on Friday, the data is being released early). This timing quirk could also trigger unusual volatility in market sentiment this week.
On the daily chart, moving averages are in a bearish alignment; the MACD lines are below the zero axis with a death cross formed, and the green energy bars are expanding—indicating that bearish momentum is dominant. However, the RSI is around 39, near the oversold zone, suggesting a potential short-term rebound for a correction.
*Trading Strategy**
Wait for gold to rebound to the $3,310–$3,305 range to short. This level is a key resistance zone mentioned earlier; if prices can reach here, it will signal persistent bearish pressure. Set a stop-loss around $3,320 to guard against a breakout above resistance and a sustained rally. The initial target can be the $3,290–$3,280 range, where you can gradually close positions for profits based on price movements and market sentiment. If prices continue to fall, adjust the target accordingly—for example, toward around $3,250.
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
XAUUSD sell@3310~3305
SL:3320
TP：3290~3280
