Market Recap & Forecast – Egyptian EditionMarket Recap & Forecast – Egyptian Edition
Yalla ya shabab—before you run off to Sahel or your cousin’s mashwi, let’s break down the market moves. Bring your tea—we’re about to see how they played us like a baladi tabla.
🗓️ 3-Day Recap (June 30 – July 2)
✅ Monday (June 30)
Market woke up strong—“Ana mesh hayemny!” like Adel Emam in El Irhab Wel Kabab.
Closed above 3302—bulls were flexing harder than Mekky in El Kabeer Awy saying “Eh da? Eh da? Enta betgannen ya basha?”
Momentum nearly maxed out—like your cousin after 3 Red Bulls.
RSI ~54, climbing.
Volume big and bold.
Translation: Bulls controlled everything—“El gameya di beta3ty ana!”
✅ Tuesday (July 1)
Tried to smash 3360–3394—market replied with Adel Emam’s classic:
“E7na benedhak 3alek!”
Closed near 3330, confused like a tourist in Sayeda Zeinab.
Volume dropped—enthusiasm disappeared faster than konafa on the table.
Market Maker Move:
“Ta3ala ta3ala, khod fake breakout we yalla salaam!”
✅ Wednesday (July 2)
Price stuck in a boring tight range—like someone waiting for their turn at the Mogamaa.
RSI still climbing but exhausted—“Khalas ya basha, malhash ta3ma,” as Mekky would say.
EMAs clustering—“Mafeesh haga hte7sal.”
Volume low—everyone thinking about the holiday.
Conclusion: The market was basically on vacation already.
📊 What’s Coming July 3rd (Cairo Time)
Set your alarms if you’re not too busy watching El Kabeer Awy reruns:
2:15 PM Cairo: ADP Jobs—could send the market spinning.
4:00 PM Cairo: ISM Services PMI—maybe some drama.
4:30 PM Cairo: Oil Inventories—“keda ya basha, haga sadeema.”
Early close because Americans have fireworks and kebab to grill.
🔍 Levels to Keep an Eye On
Fib Retracements:
38%: 3355
50%: ~3320
61%: 3302–3310
Zones:
🟥 Sell Zone (Habibi, Calm Down): 3394–3433
🟨 Chop Zone (El Malaal): 3330–3360
🟩 Buy Zone (Inshallah Bounce): 3246–3302
Above 3394? “Eh da? Enta betla3 3aleena?”
🕵️ Market Maker Tactics
Step 1: “Yalla, ne3mel rally zay el aflam el mosalsalat.”
Step 2: Sell into your excitement.
Step 3: “Yalla salaam,” as Adel Emam would say.
Step 4: Leave you staring at your screen, thinking:
“Ana mesh fahim haga!”
⚡ Forecast for July 3rd
Liquidity? “Ra7et fein?”—basically gone.
Early spike to 3394? Maybe—but “ma tesdaa2sh!”
By the afternoon, expect the market to drift back to 3300 for a nap.
🎲 Chances:
70% sideways boredom.
30% quick stop hunt to ruin your mood before mashwi.
📈 Hypothetical Trade Setup (Just for Education—Khalas ya basha)
Sure—here’s a clean, actionable rewrite that keeps the exact meaning, instructions, and flow but is tighter, clearer, and direct:
🟡 ENTRY PLAN
Scenario 1 – Sell the Trap
Setup: Price spikes into 3394–3430
Entry: Sell Limit at 3390
Confirmation:
✅ 1-minute Delta turns negative
✅ RSI fails to hold above 62
✅ Footprint shows absorption
Stop Loss: 3435
Target 1: 3330
Target 2: 3310
Execution: Place limit order. No chasing.
Scenario 2 – Buy the Clean Break
Setup: Sustained buying above 3430
Entry: Buy Stop at 3432
Confirmation:
✅ 5-minute close over 3430
✅ Volume >250% of 5-minute average
✅ Delta +1000 or higher
Stop Loss: 3395
Target 1: 3465
Target 2: 3480
Execution: Stop order to catch breakout momentum.
Scenario 3 – Fade into Reversion
Setup: Price fails to hold above 3368 intraday Fib
Entry: Market Sell below 3365
Stop Loss: 3390
Target: 3331 (POC)
🛡 Risk Controls
Max risk per trade: 1–2% of total equity
If price stays between 3360–3390 on low volume, do nothing.
Why?
Resistance stubborn—like Adel Emam yelling “Ana la!”
Market makers cashing out before the holiday.
Pre-holiday rallies disappear faster than mekka7a in Ramadan.
❓ Q1: What should you do while waiting for 3390?
Answer:
Absolutely nothing.
You do not:
❌ Short below 3390 without confirmation
❌ Flip bias every 15 points
❌ Chase 1-minute candles just to feel busy
Why?
Because 3360–3390 is the trap zone. Market Makers churn liquidity here, run stops, and create noise to bait impatient traders.
✅ Instead, you watch:
Does price consolidate under 3390?
Is volume drying up?
Is delta divergence building?
Your role is simple:
Sit on your hands until price enters your control zone.
Trading is 90% waiting. The other 10% is precise execution.
❓ Q2: What if price never hits 3390?
Answer:
If the setup doesn’t trigger, you do nothing.
Example:
Price never reaches 3390
No volume spike
No delta confirmation
Result:
✅ No trade
✅ No regret
✅ No FOMO
You are not throwing darts in the dark. You are running a clear plan:
If your criteria are met, you act.
If they’re not, you stay flat.
Example No-Trade Scenario:
Price stalls between 3350–3380 all day
Volume stays low
No stop sweep or breakout
You wait and protect your capital.
🔥 Pro Tip
If you feel you must do something:
Tighten your watchlist
Set conditional orders
Check correlated markets (Silver, DXY, yields)
Watch VWAP and ATR for shifts
Update your bias at each session open (London, NY)
But never force a trade out of boredom.
Here’s the reality:
Most of your profit will come from 2–3 clear, high-quality trades a week—not from taking 50 random entries.
✅ Quick Cheat Sheet
Trend: Bullish but exhausted.
RSI: ~56 and losing steam.
Levels: 3355, 3368, 3394
Zones:
🟥 Sell: 3394–3433
🟩 Buy: 3246–3302
Liquidity: “Mafeesh!”
Market Makers: Already on holiday.
⚠️ Reminder:
This is for learning, not for throwing your salary in the market. As Adel Emam said:
“Elly yetgawwez emra2a te7tag el falas.”
(He who marries a woman needs money—same with trading. Don’t blow your budget.)
