XAUMO REPORT: XAUUSD WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Period: Monday June 30 – Friday July 5
Focus: US Independence Day (July 4), NY Market Closure Impact
🟢1. Price Action Context
Last Week (ending June 28):
Weekly bearish engulfing closed near the lows (~3,250 area).
Series of failed rallies above 3,330.
Price compressed in a tight lower range—distribution, not accumulation.
Monday June 30 – Friday July 5:
Market begins in a low-confidence, low-volume environment.
Tuesday–Wednesday: traders will be positioning ahead of July 4 closure.
Thursday (July 4): NY market closed—no COMEX metals futures settlement.
Friday (July 5): NY market reopens—liquidity and volume surge back in.
🟡 2. Range, Support & Resistance
Composite Volume Profile:
VAH: ~3,410
POC: ~3,330 (where the heaviest volume has been transacted)
VAL: ~3,250 (final defense)
Support:
3,250: major structural shelf
3,200: next key liquidity target
Resistance:
3,330–3,350: loaded supply zone
3,390–3,420: overhead liquidity from prior weeks
Interpretation:
Price under POC, hugging VAL, is bearish.
Acceptance under 3,250 sets up a vacuum to 3,180–3,200.
🔵 3. Volume Footprint and Delta
Footprint Characteristics:
Strong negative delta (-21K) as price approached 3,250.
Buyers unable to lift offers at 3,300+.
Repeated ask dominance = supply persistence.
Institutional Read:
They’re selling into every bounce, and liquidity thinness around July 4 increases stop-hunt potential.
🟣 4. Trend and Wave Structure
Weekly trend: bearish
Daily trend: bearish with lower highs and lower lows
Wave count:
Wave 1: 3,500 ➡ 3,273
Wave 2: retrace ~3,330
Wave 3: active—projected target 3,180
🟤 5. Stop Hunt Zones
Above:
3,330–3,350: obvious short stops and breakout buy stops.
Below:
3,250: stop cluster from dip buyers and trapped longs.
Expected Behavior:
Institutions use Wednesday and low liquidity Thursday to spike stops before the real move on Friday.
Stop Hunt Scenario:
July 3–4: quick liquidity sweep above 3,330.
July 5 (Friday): NY reopen—supply steps in, drives price back down.
🟢 6. Market Closure & Liquidity Impact
NY Market Closure Schedule:
July 4 (Thursday):
NY COMEX metals closed for Independence Day.
Forex open but liquidity ~40% of normal.
Price can move erratically with minimal volume.
July 3 (Wednesday):
Early close in many US desks.
Position squaring—thin books.
July 5 (Friday):
Liquidity flood back in—true directional follow-through likely.
Implications:
Avoid heavy positioning during July 4 closure.
Expect false breakouts and “ghost candles”.
Major moves likely Friday July 5 during NY session.
🟠 7. Psychological Dynamics
Retail:
FOMO if price spikes above 3,330 on low liquidity.
Fear if price knifes under 3,250 without volume confirmation.
Institutions:
Use the holiday to:
Clear out stops.
Create liquidity pools.
Accumulate positions for Friday’s push.
🔴
8. Tangible Day-Trader Scenarios
🟢 Scenario A: Pre-Holiday Stop Hunt Trap
When: July 3–4
Price spikes over 3,330 on low volume.
Footprint shows negative delta quickly after.
Execution:
Sell limit ~3,340.
SL: 3,375.
TP: 3,200.
Note: Keep size reduced—thin conditions are volatile.
🟣 Scenario B: Post-Holiday Breakdown
When: Friday July 5
NY opens, volume returns.
Price fails to reclaim 3,250 after test.
Execution:
Sell stop 3,249.
SL: 3,310.
TP: 3,180.
Scale in as confirmation strengthens.
🟠 Scenario C: Holiday Range
When: July 4–early July 5 pre-NY
Price likely ranges 3,250–3,330.
Avoid entries unless volatility contraction ends with volume breakout.
🟡 9. Hypothetical Institutional Trade Plan
✅ Order Type: Sell Stop
✅ Entry: 3,249
✅ Stop Loss: 3,310
✅ Take Profit: 3,180
✅ Position Size: Max 0.5–1% account risk
✅ Trigger: NY session reopens Friday with volume confirmation
✅ Confidence: 85% (post-holiday breakdowns historically have high follow-through)
🟢 10. The Executive Recap
✅ Timeframe:June 30–July 5
✅ Trend:Weekly/Daily bearish
✅ Volume:Negative delta clusters
✅ Stop Hunts:
3,330–3,350 (trap)
3,250 (flush)
✅ Liquidity Event:July 4 closure reduces liquidity by ~60%
False moves likely
Major move probable Friday NY session
✅ Execution:
Low liquidity: reduced size
Confirmation: delta + volume
No chasing pre-closure
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⚠️ Disclaimer : This is a purely educational scenario. You are the only one responsible for your risk.
