HF_69420

HF_69420

SP:SPX confirming trend reversal on high time frame as it attempts to breach the 50 weekly MA for the first time since the start of the 2022 bear market. Macroeconomic environment is full of uncertainty and recession signals, with POTUS Trump openly confirming that some short term pain in assets is needed for the US economy to reset and go on a better path forward.

HF_69420

Bought Chinese tech stocks last week because they are cheap and appear to be at technical bottoms.

HF_69420

LTC has been showing isolated strength while everything else in crypto have struggled, but local top now looks in and price likely headed back to $50 support.

HF_69420

I long'd $USO at $71.70 after it held support with a nice liquidation grab just below the 50DMA. Heading into the winter with ongoing war in Ukraine and severe global energy supply shortage plus logistics issues, now technical confluence on the charts. I'm expecting it to test the $120 resistance again at least, if not blast through to $200+.

HF_69420

Bitcoin price projected against Fed net liquidity - nearly perfect correlation since the 2017 bull run, showing BTC's role as an inflation hedge for fiat dollars in the system. (h/t to Arthur Hayes and jlb05013 for the Fed net liquidity indicator)

HF_69420

The bear market rally in equities has been strong but is showing signs of exhaustion and topping out now. Likely headed much lower to a cycle bottom target of 2800-3000.

HF_69420

That most likely concludes our mini bear market rally on BTC, which was very weak and very much carried by the ETH merge pump. There was no real bid on BTC aside from mean reversion and short squeeze. We will most likely take the next leg down to my cycle low target of ~$14k in the next month or two, followed by a bottom forming ahead of the bottoming of equities.

HF_69420

Too soon to buy any altcoins including all "Ethereum killer" L1 crypto VC darlings. Solana likely headed to $13 support, which is another ~65% drawdown from current price of $36.

HF_69420

ETHBTC may be forming a Wyckoff Distribution top here, on the back of renewed merge narrative that led retail to buy into the 3500 local top, followed by a return to dominance of macro bearishness and risk-off market outlook.

HF_69420

USDTRY forming the crypto favourite "Dalai Lama" pattern?