PropNotes

PropNotes

You have no idea how hard it was for me to avoid buying LMND today. At just 1/3 of it's former high from a few months ago, this stock looks like a bargain, as the fundamental story remains intact. However, with multiples compressing, fcf machines crushing, and TLT getting smoked I'm extremely nervous to dip a toe here. I've settled for selling jun 4 $50 strike...

PropNotes

Morning all! I can smell the risk off in the air. Just thinking here that PYPL looks like a decent long if you can find a decent candle to execute off of, if it gets hammered on good earnings this week. Might not come to fruition but I like it broadly.

PropNotes

Spectacular looking weekly chart combined with a nice price base on the daily, combined with relative strength this morning off the ISM number & an in favor business model. This could easily see 55 again soon. I'm risking a small amount vs 37.34. Good luck to all! Cheers!

PropNotes

This is a three piece yield swap // Long MPLX - a high quality, cheap, high yield MLP Long PINE - an extremely high quality high yielding REIT Short HE - an overvalued, constrained utility poised to underperform long term with heavy overinvestment in legacy renewables. Should yield about 3% with hedged risk and some medium term upside I estimate around +40%. If...

PropNotes

The chart really speaks for itself here. Even though we have bounced off of the recent lows, the trending price structure is now cracked. This will likely lead to chop / downside for the near / medium future. I don't like it long from here. This isn't to say we won't see highs, but the daily chart momentum is over for the near term. Cheers!

PropNotes Updated 

Alright, so a quick idea I just had that I don't dislike too much -- gun to head I think TSLA looks good long above 721. I think a ton of new buying momentum could come in, propelling the stock higher. Granted, I still hate the valuation and this is a *TRADE* idea, not an investment, but buying the breakout and then risking to the weekly candle low could be a real...

PropNotes Updated 

Took this long this morning risking vs 31.65. Combined effects of infrastructure bill - copper + pm spend, as well as inflation, help this industry tremendously in terms of commodity prices. On top of that, we made a higher low recently which is technically bullish. TGT 40 for me on this for $1.35 of risk.

PropNotes

Delicious looking stat arb opportunity but man is there a lot of risk. DISCB 300k float. Godspeed! Cheers!

PropNotes Updated 

Chatter is that HILLHOUSE CAPITAL in china is being unwound in FTCH IQ VIAC DISCA right now. I liked it as a short, and now I like it as a long, having gone from 24 - 11 PE in three trading sessions. Blood is in the streets.

18:52

PropNotes Updated 

Thanks again for watching. Let me know if you have any questions in the commnents! It's important to mention - people talk about "moat" for this exact reason - it's to determine how long the company's net income will be stable in the face of margin-reducing competition. It's also why anticompetitive companies are more expensive, like I alluded to with google in...

19:47

PropNotes Updated 

Additional avenues for analysis - considering more the market space and the peer set, diving more into growth prospects and other analyst commentary, and understanding the context for which multiples change and how you can be prepared for that. Cheers!

19:51

PropNotes Updated 

Error: at 8:36 I say "earn about 15x it's net income." I meant to say that companies are generally WORTH about 15x their net income, on average. ONE THING I DIDN'T TALK ABOUT CLEARLY ENOUGH - when it comes to figuring out how much you are paying for the "box" you are interested in, it's MOST useful to compare the p/e multiple you are paying vs the multiple the...

PropNotes

Well, we knew it was going to happen at some point. It finally seems that the IWM is out of gas compared to the major tech stocks which have spent the better part of 6 months going sideways. Over the long term, the trend of tech eating the world has been playing out, with large cap tech outperforming almost everything, especially mid cap blend, represented by IWM....

PropNotes Updated 

Just an update on the LC idea. It's working out well, although the recent price action might be an opportunity to sell some and add back lower, as the last two days' move seems a bit unsustainable.

PropNotes

Chart says it all.

PropNotes Updated 

VIAC is overbought. Registering RSI 85+ today on three separate timeframes has qualified this to me as a clear shorting opportunity. This isn't a high multiple name in a sexy sector, either. This is a legacy media business trying to hack it in a crowded market. I'm long weekly lotto $80 puts (I'm basically NEVER this aggressive) and also short shares in the long...

PropNotes

I''m not a huge fan of AMD, but this selloff right into support with some strength premarket off this low - on the back of TLT - might be a decent bounce trade. Make sure to execute well! Cheers

19:20

PropNotes Updated 

Just a quick explainer for people who are getting smoked and don't know why.