Trainwreck

Trainwreck

IF Bitcoin breaks new ATH next few weeks, MSTR cup and handle impossible to ignore with a target of 1.618 fibonacci extension as target 1...... Moonboi thoughts.

Trainwreck Updated 

My view for year-end rally in Bitcoin is based on seasonal and global liquidity (GLI) My projection for the Treasury General Account (TGA) is an increase from $740B today to a peak of $880B on 12/17 (which will be negative for Bitcoin and assets) and then a decrease (positive liquidity) of $200+ Billion down to a low of $630B on 1/10. This will be the window to...

Trainwreck Updated 

As always, I try not to publish trades without having a big view of multiple factors so this one is based on a long term view over the next 1-2 years. Macro: I have outlined China's Central Bank (PBoC) liquidity injections (through reverse repo and MLF data) as very seasonal at the bottom pane on the chart. I do NOT believe history or seasonals should dictate...

Trainwreck

September rate cut is now consensus.. what is lost on most is that rate cuts are not bullish outside the blowoff top that comes from retail thinking they are. 2008 GFC rate cut cycle: in July 2007 the Fed cut rates for the first time after a hiking cycle similar to the one we are in currently. The S&P dropped 7%, then went on to make a new ATH 105 days later...

Trainwreck

Bitcoin is consolidating at the top of a 3 month long range... coiled like a snake and looking like a cup n handle or inverse H&S pattern with targets above $90K. There is $1.5B in shorts from $72k-73K that would be massive short squeeze fodder. ALl of that to say.... CLSK has ALSO been consolidating but in a much more bullish way with bullish divergence going...

Trainwreck

My last ZIM post in Jan is currently up 100% from $10 and currently sitting at $21 so why post a new entry? Because of ZIM ZEX www.zim.com ZIM had a bad Q2 but covered enough ground to bring back the dividend, which only adds to this long-term position but if you missed that is why I am posting. The freight market has changed over the last 3 weeks from...

Trainwreck Updated 

My last post on CLSK closed at all 3 targets hit with a 160% gain... if you missed that one I would NOT chase this stock but IF we get a pullback into this area to close this gap, I would say it would be a good re-entry. Would need to do this before the ETF news I would think...

01:14

Trainwreck

long entry and short entry to follow. video says it all

Trainwreck

It is time to ask yourself if you are a trader or a HODL'er of #Bitcoin I know I get more engagement with bullish posts but CRYPTOCAP:BTC is up 200% over a very short period (13.5 months) and I did post entries as low as $17,000.. and called buying dips all the way to FWB:42K Bitcoin could easily continue up to new ATH right now... but a pullback here is...

Trainwreck

This is a long-term hold asset for me but added a bigger position for a shorter-term trade targeting the gap.. timeline is whatever. I like the stock and market cap for the performance and dividends.

Trainwreck

Haven't looked at NYSE:ZIM for some time but entered a small position at $9.60 and added this morning at $11.00. looking for 3 targets up to golden zone if pressure on freight rates continue due to Red Sea and Suez Canal issues. Spot rates are in a profitable area for carriers, especially carriers with ZIM's low overhead and there are multiple GRI's, PSS, and...

Trainwreck Updated 

Didn't get a chance to post this one here but same as the other 2 miner longs I posted. Clean Spark is currently mining the most profitable Bitcoin in the space at a cost basis of $14,500/coin and currently holding the 200 day MA with Bitcoin ripping again. There will no doubt be a pullback coming but the trend is up right now. Clean S/R with obvious stop losses...

Trainwreck Updated 

RIOT is currently sitting at clear S/R level and back testing the 200 day MA as support. Bitcoin is either going to continue through $35k which will take Riot back to highs OR come back down to test $32k which would be a clear get out of this trade before any of the stops hit. Probably going to close that gap between 10.05 and here so might get a better entry...

Trainwreck

Pretty obvious we are on the brink of a year end rally based on seasonality and election cycles OR we are about to see the biggest system crash since the great depression based on absolutely bananas monetary policy for the last 50 years and over correction helicopter money from the Federal Reserve. As always based on price action, timeline, and risk VS rework...

Trainwreck

This is the same situation / idea as the RIOT long entry I posted.. clear S/R levels with insane R/R ratio. Would not be surprised to see the gap below fill before taking off - same as if Bitcoin comes back to collect the 200 day MA. I will add to these positions on pullback unless something changes on the MACRO timeline.

Trainwreck

Bitcoin is slowly bleeding under short-term and long-term moving averages while looking like it is about to break the bullish market structure. IMO this is a simple healthy correction after an 85% move up off the low year to date. While everyone is saying Bitcoin is dead and sentiment goes into the toilet on crypto Twitter I look for entry positions based on...

Trainwreck

Markets are pricing in 4 Fed rate reductions by end of year, zero chance of recession, less than 10% chance of additional rate hikes, and participants will likely find themselves offside even if the pain is short-lived.... I think Powell is going to Uber hawk nuke us back into the stone age while he has stocks on the ropes at Jackson Hole. price pushing into...

Trainwreck

A ton of MACRO factors to consider but strictly price action for Bitcoin, you cannot ignore the 200 day moving average, Bollinger Band tightest since 2013, and key levels needing retest for entries. That said, I am looking to get long and hoping to catch some dips here but would end up chasing if price goes bananas from here. On the MACRO front, global liquidity...