AUD/CAD – 18 June 2025
📋 PLAN OVERVIEW
Parameter Details
Type Swing Short (Primary)
Direction 🔻 Short Bias
Status ⚠️ Watching for Rejection
R:R 1:2.5 (Base)
Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (84%) – HTF Trend Alignment
📈 MARKET BIAS & TRADE TYPE
AUD/CAD is respecting a broader D1 and H4 bearish trend, following a key breakdown and re-test structure. Price recently rejected from supply above 0.8865 and is now moving lower. The plan structure is based on continuation, with tactical pullbacks offering opportunity to join trend.
📌 Trade Type: Continuation 📌 Bias Origin: H4 BOS → Bearish OB Rejection
🔰 CONFIDENCE FACTORS
Component Weight Score
HTF Structure (D1/H4 BOS & OB) 35% ✅
Liquidity Logic (Sweep & Trap) 25% ✅
Macro Confluence 25% ⚠️ Moderate (CAD strength, AUD weakness)
Volume & Reaction Quality 15% ✅
Total Confluence Score: 84% ✅
📍 ENTRY ZONES (MAX 2)
Zone Range Type Confidence
🟧 Zone 0.8880–0.8895 D1 FVG/Inducement Zone ⭐⭐⭐
📌 Both zones are structurally aligned. Zone 2 sits slightly higher but is within macro value area. 📌 Price currently below both → Pending order logic applies.
❗ STOP LOSS LOGIC
* Zone 2 SL: Above 0.8905 (above HTF inducement & imbalance)
🎯 TAKE PROFIT LEVELS
TP Level Rationale
TP1 0.8815 Minor structure shelf / intraday reaction zone
TP2 0.8785 Liquidity void mid-range
TP3 0.8750 HTF trend continuation level (multi-day)
🧠 TRADE MANAGEMENT
* Entry 1/3 → Zone 1 rejection + H1 confirmation
* Entry 1/3 → Zone 2 (if triggered) with volume/sweep
* Move SL to BE after TP1
* Trail with fractals post-TP2
* Monitor for reverse CHoCH below 0.8790 to scale out early if invalidated
⚠️ CONFIRMATION CONDITIONS (MANDATORY)
* H1 or H4 bearish engulfing after zone tap ✅
* Session alignment: London or NY ✅
* Volume spike or wick rejection ✅
⏳ TRADE VALIDITY WINDOW
* Zone: Valid 48 hours 📌 If price breaks and closes above both → plan void
❌ INVALIDATION
* Break + close above 0.8905 = FULL PLAN INVALIDATED
* H1 BOS to upside after zone 2 = tactical failure
🌐 MACRO SNAPSHOT
* CAD strong on oil correlation
* AUD weak on risk-off tone
* DXY neutral – no disruption 📌 Macro supports downside but watch upcoming CAD CPI
📌 Plan is 100% structurally sound. 📌 Confirmation checklist MUST be met for execution. 📌 Market orders ONLY if confirmation prints after zone tap.
📋 PLAN OVERVIEW
Parameter Details
Type Swing Short (Primary)
Direction 🔻 Short Bias
Status ⚠️ Watching for Rejection
R:R 1:2.5 (Base)
Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (84%) – HTF Trend Alignment
📈 MARKET BIAS & TRADE TYPE
AUD/CAD is respecting a broader D1 and H4 bearish trend, following a key breakdown and re-test structure. Price recently rejected from supply above 0.8865 and is now moving lower. The plan structure is based on continuation, with tactical pullbacks offering opportunity to join trend.
📌 Trade Type: Continuation 📌 Bias Origin: H4 BOS → Bearish OB Rejection
🔰 CONFIDENCE FACTORS
Component Weight Score
HTF Structure (D1/H4 BOS & OB) 35% ✅
Liquidity Logic (Sweep & Trap) 25% ✅
Macro Confluence 25% ⚠️ Moderate (CAD strength, AUD weakness)
Volume & Reaction Quality 15% ✅
Total Confluence Score: 84% ✅
📍 ENTRY ZONES (MAX 2)
Zone Range Type Confidence
🟧 Zone 0.8880–0.8895 D1 FVG/Inducement Zone ⭐⭐⭐
📌 Both zones are structurally aligned. Zone 2 sits slightly higher but is within macro value area. 📌 Price currently below both → Pending order logic applies.
❗ STOP LOSS LOGIC
* Zone 2 SL: Above 0.8905 (above HTF inducement & imbalance)
🎯 TAKE PROFIT LEVELS
TP Level Rationale
TP1 0.8815 Minor structure shelf / intraday reaction zone
TP2 0.8785 Liquidity void mid-range
TP3 0.8750 HTF trend continuation level (multi-day)
🧠 TRADE MANAGEMENT
* Entry 1/3 → Zone 1 rejection + H1 confirmation
* Entry 1/3 → Zone 2 (if triggered) with volume/sweep
* Move SL to BE after TP1
* Trail with fractals post-TP2
* Monitor for reverse CHoCH below 0.8790 to scale out early if invalidated
⚠️ CONFIRMATION CONDITIONS (MANDATORY)
* H1 or H4 bearish engulfing after zone tap ✅
* Session alignment: London or NY ✅
* Volume spike or wick rejection ✅
⏳ TRADE VALIDITY WINDOW
* Zone: Valid 48 hours 📌 If price breaks and closes above both → plan void
❌ INVALIDATION
* Break + close above 0.8905 = FULL PLAN INVALIDATED
* H1 BOS to upside after zone 2 = tactical failure
🌐 MACRO SNAPSHOT
* CAD strong on oil correlation
* AUD weak on risk-off tone
* DXY neutral – no disruption 📌 Macro supports downside but watch upcoming CAD CPI
📌 Plan is 100% structurally sound. 📌 Confirmation checklist MUST be met for execution. 📌 Market orders ONLY if confirmation prints after zone tap.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.