Geopolitical calm, optimism about trade diplomacy, anticipation of a rate cut by the FED - a trio that helped the global equity market set a new all-time record and produced a positive correlation effect on the bitcoin price. Can the trend remain bullish until the end of July?
1) Global liquidity still underpins bitcoin's upward momentum
An often underestimated driving force continues to influence bitcoin's evolution: the global M2 monetary aggregate, which maintains a close, positive correlation with the price of the digital asset. This indicator, which aggregates the money supply of the major economies converted into US dollars, generally acts on bitcoin with an average lag of around 12 weeks. The latest statistics show a new all-time high for this global liquidity. This factor is helping to sustain the upward trend observed since April, despite a complex fundamental context marked by a Federal Reserve determined to maintain a restrictive monetary policy in the short term.
The US dollar, by strengthening or weakening, directly modifies the total value of M2 expressed in dollars. This contributes to the extent of global liquidity and, consequently, to bitcoin's evolution.
2) A bullish continuation technical configuration in formation
On the chart, bitcoin's trend has been marked by a sustained advance for several months. Chartist analysis suggests that a bullish continuation flag may be in the making. If this pattern is confirmed by a clear breakout above the all-time high, theoretical projections place the next targets between $128,000 and $145,000. The dynamics of the daily candlesticks on BTC/USD testify to a market that remains positively oriented, provided that the 98,000/100,000 US dollar support zone is preserved.
3) The four-year halving cycle still active
To place this development in a longer-term context, it is worth recalling the four-year cycle structured around halving. The last halving event took place in April 2024, initiating a new bullish phase that should continue until autumn 2025 if historical regularities repeat themselves. Bitcoin therefore has several months left to set new records, even if episodes of volatility cannot be ruled out.
Temporal analyses show that the terminal phase of this cycle is expected between October and December 2025. This outlook gives the trend time to develop, even if the summer period should see the development of a short-term correction.
4) Outlook for July
Since the spring, bitcoin has been on an upward trend, which has its roots in both the technical configuration and the unprecedented scale of global liquidity. The combination of these factors has created an environment conducive to continued bullishness over the summer, even if the market will have to contend with geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as the firmness of the FED, which is unlikely to cut rates before September.
CAUTION: a technical break of the $100K support would put an end to the uptrend in place since the beginning of April.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
1) Global liquidity still underpins bitcoin's upward momentum
An often underestimated driving force continues to influence bitcoin's evolution: the global M2 monetary aggregate, which maintains a close, positive correlation with the price of the digital asset. This indicator, which aggregates the money supply of the major economies converted into US dollars, generally acts on bitcoin with an average lag of around 12 weeks. The latest statistics show a new all-time high for this global liquidity. This factor is helping to sustain the upward trend observed since April, despite a complex fundamental context marked by a Federal Reserve determined to maintain a restrictive monetary policy in the short term.
The US dollar, by strengthening or weakening, directly modifies the total value of M2 expressed in dollars. This contributes to the extent of global liquidity and, consequently, to bitcoin's evolution.
2) A bullish continuation technical configuration in formation
On the chart, bitcoin's trend has been marked by a sustained advance for several months. Chartist analysis suggests that a bullish continuation flag may be in the making. If this pattern is confirmed by a clear breakout above the all-time high, theoretical projections place the next targets between $128,000 and $145,000. The dynamics of the daily candlesticks on BTC/USD testify to a market that remains positively oriented, provided that the 98,000/100,000 US dollar support zone is preserved.
3) The four-year halving cycle still active
To place this development in a longer-term context, it is worth recalling the four-year cycle structured around halving. The last halving event took place in April 2024, initiating a new bullish phase that should continue until autumn 2025 if historical regularities repeat themselves. Bitcoin therefore has several months left to set new records, even if episodes of volatility cannot be ruled out.
Temporal analyses show that the terminal phase of this cycle is expected between October and December 2025. This outlook gives the trend time to develop, even if the summer period should see the development of a short-term correction.
4) Outlook for July
Since the spring, bitcoin has been on an upward trend, which has its roots in both the technical configuration and the unprecedented scale of global liquidity. The combination of these factors has created an environment conducive to continued bullishness over the summer, even if the market will have to contend with geopolitical and trade tensions, as well as the firmness of the FED, which is unlikely to cut rates before September.
CAUTION: a technical break of the $100K support would put an end to the uptrend in place since the beginning of April.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.