__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is consolidating below the yearly range high: higher-timeframe remains constructive while short-term momentum has turned lower. Sellers are active into 116.5–118k, with 111–114k catching dips.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
Game plan: trade the range defensively below 118k and be ready to flip long on a confirmed 4H/12H close above it.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
HTF structure remains constructive while LTFs lean bearish under the 116.5–118k cap.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro tilts mildly risk-on, but follow-through depends on holding closes above 118k and geopolitical calm.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC holds a mature range between 111k and 118k with HTF tailwind but LTF headwinds.
- Trend: bullish on 1D/1W, bearish on LTF; 118k is the trigger for 120k/124k continuation.
- Best setup: buy 114–111.5k on clean reaction or follow the confirmed breakout > 118k; alternatively, fade 116–118k rejections.
- Macro: Powell’s easing tilt + ETF/stablecoin flows support upside if 118k gives way.
Stay nimble: trade the range until the break, and protect risk around key closes and macro headlines. ⚠️
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is consolidating below the yearly range high: higher-timeframe remains constructive while short-term momentum has turned lower. Sellers are active into 116.5–118k, with 111–114k catching dips.
- Momentum: Bearish 📉 intraday with a supportive 1D/1W backdrop; “sell the rips” under 116.5–118k.
- Key levels:
• Resistances (4H–1D): 116.5–118k (major pivot), 120–121k (intermediate supply), 124k (ATH area).
• Supports (2H–1D): 114–114.5k (range median), 111–111.7k (W Pivot High), 105–98k if 111k breaks. - Volumes: Normal to moderate; on 2H–4H, spikes mainly on sell pushes below 115k.
- Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/1W = Up, 6H→15m = Down; 111–114k holds structure, 118k caps rebounds.
- Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: VENTE — contradicts bullish breakouts and favors selective range trading.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
Game plan: trade the range defensively below 118k and be ready to flip long on a confirmed 4H/12H close above it.
- Global bias: Neutral-bullish as long as 111k holds, tactically short below 118k; higher-timeframe invalidation if daily/12H closes below 111k.
- Opportunities:
• Reactive long 114–111.5k on wick/volume confirmation, target 116k then 118k.
• Breakout buy on 4H/12H close > 118k, aiming 120k then 124k.
• Tactical fade short 116–118k on clean rejections; target 114k then 112k. - Risk zones / invalidations:
• A 12H close < 111k opens 105k then 98k (HTF bullish invalidation).
• A 4H/12H close > 118k invalidates shorts and flips the bias long. - Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
• Powell signaled cuts “may be warranted” and the FAIT regime is being dropped → risk-on tailwind.
• Spot ETF flows turned positive again (ARKB, BITB), aligning with risk appetite → tactical support.
• Stablecoin inflows: >$500M USDC to Coinbase → potential spot fuel if 118k breaks. - Action plan:
• Range-long: Entry 114.5k→113k (ladder) / Stop daily < 111k / TP1 116k, TP2 118k, TP3 120k / R:R ≈ 2.0–2.5.
• Breakout-long: Entry on 4H/12H close > 118k / Stop ~116.5k / TP1 120k, TP2 124k, TP3 runner / R:R ≈ 1.8–2.2.
• Range-short: Entry 116–118k (rejection) / Stop 4H close > 118k / TP1 114k, TP2 112k, TP3 111k / R:R ≈ 1.5–2.0.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
HTF structure remains constructive while LTFs lean bearish under the 116.5–118k cap.
- 1W/1D: Bullish structure above 111k; a confirmed 4H/12H close above 118k unlocks 120k/124k.
- 12H/6H/4H/2H: Lower highs persisting; rebounds get faded under 116.5–118k, with 114k then 112k as magnets.
- 1H/30m/15m: Short-term down channel, micro-range 114.8–116.2k; prefer shorts under 116k, reactive longs only on clean 114k signals.
- Divergences/confluences: Strong confluence at 118k (multi-TF resistance) and 111k (HTF pivot). This pair drives breakout vs. reversion scenarios.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro tilts mildly risk-on, but follow-through depends on holding closes above 118k and geopolitical calm.
- Macro events:
• Post–Jackson Hole, Powell noted cuts may be warranted; US indices printed records, yields fell, USD slipped → risk-on support.
• Fed is dropping the implicit FAIT while keeping 2% long-term target → clearer policy path, lower regime uncertainty.
• Truflation near ~2.1% with slowing growth signs → higher cut odds, liquidity tailwind for risk assets. - Bitcoin analysis:
• BTC volatility: dip ~112k then bounce 115–117k; 118k remains the decision level.
• Spot ETFs: outflows flipped to inflows (ARKB, BITB) → increases odds of a clean breakout.
• Stablecoins: >$500M USDC to Coinbase = potential spot bid if 118k breaks; watch for deployment. - On-chain data:
• Elevated OI but recently cleaned up → leverage healthier yet sensitive.
• Slower net capital inflows late-cycle; ETH-derivatives dominance → potential volatility spillover to BTC. - Expected impact: Macro/on-chain slightly favor the top of the range; technically, bias flips only on a confirmed close > 118k, else range persists.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC holds a mature range between 111k and 118k with HTF tailwind but LTF headwinds.
- Trend: bullish on 1D/1W, bearish on LTF; 118k is the trigger for 120k/124k continuation.
- Best setup: buy 114–111.5k on clean reaction or follow the confirmed breakout > 118k; alternatively, fade 116–118k rejections.
- Macro: Powell’s easing tilt + ETF/stablecoin flows support upside if 118k gives way.
Stay nimble: trade the range until the break, and protect risk around key closes and macro headlines. ⚠️
Note
🚀 MACRO + BTC ROUNDUP- 🏦 Powell at Jackson Hole said “conditions may warrant” rate cuts, and commentators suggest FAIT/2% average targeting is being dropped, as USD and Treasury yields fell and risk assets rallied.
- 📈 US equities hit record highs across the Dow/S&P/Nasdaq, with the KBW Bank Index printing its first record since 2022, reinforcing a risk-on backdrop supportive for Bitcoin.
- 🧭 BTC bounced strongly post‑Powell, with several traders citing ~$112k as a local bottom and noting a daily bullish divergence.
- 💸 Near-term ETF signals are mixed: one read shows modest net outflows on 22 Aug of about $23m, while ARKB saw ~$67m and BITB ~$13m of fresh inflows.
- 🏛️ A claim circulated that BlackRock’s IBIT holds ~781k BTC, but other sources dispute this by noting Coinbase still holds >1m BTC on‑exchange.
- 🌏 Philippines lawmakers proposed a 10,000 BTC national reserve, adding a potential new source of sovereign demand.
- 🛍️ A major Hong Kong luxury retailer now accepts BTC, extending retail acceptance in Asia.
- 🛢️ Reports of a US ban on Venezuelan oil approvals for non‑American firms flag an energy/inflation tail risk, while the ECB’s Rehn signaled no “insurance cut” but was overshadowed by the US pivot narrative.
Sentiment: Constructively bullish but headline- and policy-sensitive.
Takeaway: If ~$112k holds and US risk-on persists, BTC’s bias stays up; watch energy shock risk and conflicting ETF/holdings signals.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.