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Market Overview
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BTC is hovering near 120.6k after a clean reclaim above the 119.8k pivot, now pressing into the 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster. Trend is bullish, but we’re trading into resistance.
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Trading Playbook
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Strategic stance: uptrend intact—prefer buy-the-dip over chasing breakouts until we get a daily close above 122,318 with volume.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs remain bullish while LTFs are stretched into resistance.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is calm-to-supportive; ETF flows backstop BTC, but rotation to alts and slower derivatives momentum argue for caution on breakouts.
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Key Takeaways
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An uptrend is probing a 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster with normal volumes and a mixed short-term Risk On/Off read.
- Trend: bullish 📈 while 119.8k holds.
- Top setup: buy-the-dip 120.0k–119.8k; only confirm continuation on a close above 122,318.
- Macro: ETF inflows positive, macro calm; rotation into alts may cap BTC near-term.
Stay patient: favor pullbacks and wait for an H4/D close with volume to “pay” the break above 122.3k. 👀
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC is hovering near 120.6k after a clean reclaim above the 119.8k pivot, now pressing into the 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster. Trend is bullish, but we’re trading into resistance.
- Momentum: 📈 Bullish, multi-timeframe HH/HL, yet approaching a dense 121k–122.3k supply.
- Key levels:
- Resistances (4H/1D): 121,000–121,500 • 122,318 (D) • 123,235 (240)
- Supports (1H/4H/1D): 119,800 (720 pivot) • 118,500 (240) • 115,860 (240) - Volumes: Normal across most TFs; prior spikes accompanied the 119.8k breakout.
- Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H/6H trending up toward 122.3k; 4H/2H high-base consolidation; 30m/15m locally overbought under 121k, favoring pullbacks to 120.0k–119.8k.
- Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral Buy backdrop, but tilting Neutral Sell → Sell on the very short-term, slightly contradicting the bullish push into resistance.
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Trading Playbook
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Strategic stance: uptrend intact—prefer buy-the-dip over chasing breakouts until we get a daily close above 122,318 with volume.
- Global bias: Buy bias (Neutral Buy) while 119.8k holds; key invalidation on a close below 119.8k.
- Opportunities:
- Buy the dip at 120.0k–119.8k targeting 121.5k then 122.3k/123.2k.
- Bullish breakout on H4/D close > 122,318 toward 123,235 (let it run if flows expand).
- Tactical fade 120.9k–121.1k back to 120.0k if Risk On/Off stays in Sell on LTFs. - Risk zones / invalidations: Strong rejection at 122.3k plus a close < 119.8k = bull trap risk and range-back toward 118.5k; loss of 118.5k could open 115.9k.
- Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- Spot ETF inflows remain positive and above new supply → supports dip-buying.
- China liquidity mixed, Euro CPI contained, no major macro shocks → technical breakout must be confirmed by volume.
- Rotation to ETH/Alts + slowing derivatives momentum → near-term cap risk on breakouts. - Action plan:
- Plan A (buy-the-dip): Entry 120.0k–119.8k / Stop < 119.6k / TP1 121.5k, TP2 122,318, TP3 123,235 • R/R ~2–3.
- Plan B (breakout): Entry on retest 122.35k–122.5k after H4/D close > 122,318 / Stop ~122.0k / TP1 123,235, TP2 let it run • R/R ~1.5–2.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs remain bullish while LTFs are stretched into resistance.
- 1D/12H/6H: HH/HL above 119.8k; H4/D close > 122,318 unlocks 123,235; look for volume expansion to validate extension.
- 4H/2H: High-base consolidation under 121k–122k; better R/R on pullbacks to 120.0k–119.8k than chasing an immediate break.
- 30m/15m: Local overbought and Risk On/Off in Sell; higher odds of a pullback toward 120.0k/119.8k before any attempt above 122k.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is calm-to-supportive; ETF flows backstop BTC, but rotation to alts and slower derivatives momentum argue for caution on breakouts.
- Macro events: China credit/liquidity mixed; Spain CPI contained (ECB pressure tempered); US deficit keeps the debasement/hedge narrative alive.
- Bitcoin analysis: Spot ETF inflows (+$65.9M) with IBIT buys > mined supply support demand; BTC dominance slipping (rotation to ETH/Alts) can cap near-term outperformance; futures momentum has cooled.
- On-chain data: Risk-on but not euphoric; compressed IV and high alts OI increase sensitivity to surprises; STH resistance near ~127k as an upper on-chain area.
- Expected impact: Constructive for dip-buys; demand confirmation (volume/flows) needed to validate a daily break above 122.3k.
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Key Takeaways
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An uptrend is probing a 121k–122.3k daily supply cluster with normal volumes and a mixed short-term Risk On/Off read.
- Trend: bullish 📈 while 119.8k holds.
- Top setup: buy-the-dip 120.0k–119.8k; only confirm continuation on a close above 122,318.
- Macro: ETF inflows positive, macro calm; rotation into alts may cap BTC near-term.
Stay patient: favor pullbacks and wait for an H4/D close with volume to “pay” the break above 122.3k. 👀
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.