Bitcoin has set a new all-time high this July, continuing the upward cycle tied to the spring 2024 halving. The decline in bitcoin dominance since early July has sparked a minor altcoin season. On this topic, I invite you to revisit my latest crypto analyses in the Swissquote market analysis archive. You can also subscribe to our account to receive alerts every time I publish a new crypto market analysis for Swissquote.
By clicking on the image below, you can read my latest perspective on Ether’s outperformance, which I now expect to last until the end of the cycle.
In this new article, I’ll address an important subject: the final top price for Bitcoin in this 2025 cycle. I’ll publish a separate article soon regarding timing. Today, I present three tools to combine in order to define a target zone for Bitcoin’s final cycle high by year-end.
1) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis on a Logarithmic Scale
Bitcoin is currently building wave 5 of the bullish cycle that started in autumn 2022 around $15,000. To calculate theoretical targets for wave 5, we use Fibonacci extensions, particularly projections from wave 3 and from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3. This gives a target range between $145,000 and $170,000.
2) Pi Cycle Top Prediction Tool
The Pi Cycle Top is based on the interaction of two moving averages: the 111-day MA and the 350-day MA multiplied by 2. Historically, a bullish crossover of the 111 MA above the 2×350 MA preceded the market peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021 by a few days. This tool captures late-stage bull market speculation but can give false signals when used alone, hence the need for multiple approaches. The current 2×350-day MA stands at $175,000.
3) Terminal Price Tool
Developed by analyst Willy Woo, Terminal Price is an on-chain model based on Bitcoin’s fundamental network data. It combines the Price-to-Thermocap Ratio (market value vs cumulative mining cost) with a logarithmic metric to estimate a theoretical ceiling. Unlike the Pi Cycle Top, it does not rely on price action but on network economic activity, making it complementary. Terminal Price currently trends around $200,000.
Used together, these three approaches can help identify likely cycle top zones. The Pi Cycle Top signals excess momentum through price dynamics, while Terminal Price provides a more fundamental upper bound. Their convergence with Elliott wave analysis and Fibonacci extensions increases the probability that the final cycle top will occur by late 2025 in a range between $145,000 and $200,000.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
By clicking on the image below, you can read my latest perspective on Ether’s outperformance, which I now expect to last until the end of the cycle.
In this new article, I’ll address an important subject: the final top price for Bitcoin in this 2025 cycle. I’ll publish a separate article soon regarding timing. Today, I present three tools to combine in order to define a target zone for Bitcoin’s final cycle high by year-end.
1) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis on a Logarithmic Scale
Bitcoin is currently building wave 5 of the bullish cycle that started in autumn 2022 around $15,000. To calculate theoretical targets for wave 5, we use Fibonacci extensions, particularly projections from wave 3 and from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 3. This gives a target range between $145,000 and $170,000.
2) Pi Cycle Top Prediction Tool
The Pi Cycle Top is based on the interaction of two moving averages: the 111-day MA and the 350-day MA multiplied by 2. Historically, a bullish crossover of the 111 MA above the 2×350 MA preceded the market peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021 by a few days. This tool captures late-stage bull market speculation but can give false signals when used alone, hence the need for multiple approaches. The current 2×350-day MA stands at $175,000.
3) Terminal Price Tool
Developed by analyst Willy Woo, Terminal Price is an on-chain model based on Bitcoin’s fundamental network data. It combines the Price-to-Thermocap Ratio (market value vs cumulative mining cost) with a logarithmic metric to estimate a theoretical ceiling. Unlike the Pi Cycle Top, it does not rely on price action but on network economic activity, making it complementary. Terminal Price currently trends around $200,000.
Used together, these three approaches can help identify likely cycle top zones. The Pi Cycle Top signals excess momentum through price dynamics, while Terminal Price provides a more fundamental upper bound. Their convergence with Elliott wave analysis and Fibonacci extensions increases the probability that the final cycle top will occur by late 2025 in a range between $145,000 and $200,000.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.