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Market Overview
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BTC is consolidating mid‑range within 104k–116k after a clean rejection below the weekly pivot high (~112k). Intraday momentum tilts bearish while higher timeframes remain range‑bound.
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Trading Playbook
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In a range with MTF selling pressure, favor sell‑the‑rip and defensive buys on absorption. 🎯
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs are range‑bound while MTFs (2H–6H) drift lower; LTFs attempt technical rebounds.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is dovish‑but‑uncertain while on‑chain points to a digestion range — a setup favoring tactics over trends.
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Key Takeaways
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A controlled range persists with an active 112k ceiling and selective dip‑bidding lower.
- Overall trend: 📉 tactical bearish within a HTF range.
- Top setup: Fade 111.95–112.15 with invalidation >112.5 and targets 110.5/109.6/108.0.
- Macro key: Fed‑lean dovish but labor/ISM data could swing momentum toward 112k or down to 109.5.
Stay disciplined: trade the range, protect stops, and let closes above 112.5 and 114–116k speak. 🧭
Market Overview
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BTC is consolidating mid‑range within 104k–116k after a clean rejection below the weekly pivot high (~112k). Intraday momentum tilts bearish while higher timeframes remain range‑bound.
- Momentum: 📉 Bearish within a range — sellers active at 111.95–112.15, defensive bids lower.
- Key levels:
• Resistances (HTF/MTF): 111.95–112.15 (weekly), 113.5–114.0 (MTF), 115.5 (gate before 118k/121k).
• Supports (HTF/MTF): 110.2–110.5 (MTF), 109.3–109.8 (MTF), 107.9–108.1 (HTF). - Volumes: Overall normal; moderate pickup on 1H retests of range edges.
- Multi-timeframe signals: 2H–6H point Down; 12H–1D more neutral; LTF (15–30m) show range rebounds — consistent with selling 112k rejections and tactical buys at 109.3–109.8 / 107.9–108.1.
- Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: SELL (mild risk‑off) — aligns with the bearish bias as long as 112k caps price.
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Trading Playbook
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In a range with MTF selling pressure, favor sell‑the‑rip and defensive buys on absorption. 🎯
- Global bias: NEUTRAL SELL below 112k; key invalidation on a strong close >112.5k.
- Opportunities:
• Tactical sell: Fade 111.95–112.15 on signal; target 110.5 then 109.6. (Stop >112.5)
• Defensive buy: Bid 109.3–109.8 on wick/absorption; target 111.1 then 111.9. (Stop <109.3)
• Breakout buy: Only above 112.5 on confirmed retest; target 114.0 then 115.5. (Stop ≈112.0) - Risk zones / invalidations:
• A reclaim >112.5 invalidates the sell bias and opens 114k–116k.
• A clean break <109.3 exposes 108.0 then 106.8/104k. - Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
• Fed: Waller favors a cut vs Kashkari cautious; Beige Book “little change” — dovish tone would favor 112k/114k tests.
• US labor: ADP/claims/ISM Services today — strong surprises can trigger a break of the 110.3–111.3 micro‑range.
• Inflation mix: Oil <$60 (disinflation) but US tariff risks linger — likely keeps us ranging until 114k–116k is reclaimed. - Action plan:
• Short 112k rejection: Entry 111.95–112.15 / Stop 112.6 / TP1 110.5, TP2 109.6, TP3 108.0 → R/R ≈ 2.0–3.0.
• Defensive long 109.5: Entry 109.3–109.8 / Stop 109.2 / TP1 111.1, TP2 111.9, TP3 112.5 → R/R ≈ 2.0–2.5.
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Multi-Timeframe Insights
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HTFs are range‑bound while MTFs (2H–6H) drift lower; LTFs attempt technical rebounds.
- 1D/12H: Range 104k–116k intact; 111.95–112.15 capping; 107.9–108.1 as base — below 112k, risk skew toward 110.5 then 109.5.
- 6H/4H/2H: Lower highs in place; prefer selling retests 111.3–111.6 and 111.95–112.15 toward 110.5/109.5.
- 1H/30m/15m: Micro‑range 110.3–111.3; long scalps from 110.3–110.6 with confirmation; moderate volume pickup on edge retests.
- Key divergences/confluences: Mild risk‑off + MTF Down = bearish confluence below 112k; absence of extreme volume tempers squeeze risk until 114k–116k triggers.
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Macro & On-Chain Drivers
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Macro is dovish‑but‑uncertain while on‑chain points to a digestion range — a setup favoring tactics over trends.
- Macro events: Fed split (Waller pro‑cut, Kashkari cautious), Beige Book steady; JOLTS down with ADP/claims/ISM due — directional volatility risk. Oil <$60 and soft Swiss CPI = disinflation, but US tariffs keep inflation risks alive.
- Bitcoin analysis: Broke below daily Ichimoku and retested as resistance; hesitation under a double‑top neckline; 30‑day realized vol low = uncertainty without panic. US spot ETF net inflows +$300.5M (Sept 3) with muted price response.
- On-chain data: Accumulation 108k–116k (URPD) and lost high cost‑basis → 104.1k–114.3k corridor; STH ~60% in profit = fragile; neutral funding and slowing ETF intake = capped momentum.
- Expected impact: While 112k isn’t reclaimed with volume, bias stays NEUTRAL SELL; above 114k–116k, risk‑on resumes.
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Key Takeaways
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A controlled range persists with an active 112k ceiling and selective dip‑bidding lower.
- Overall trend: 📉 tactical bearish within a HTF range.
- Top setup: Fade 111.95–112.15 with invalidation >112.5 and targets 110.5/109.6/108.0.
- Macro key: Fed‑lean dovish but labor/ISM data could swing momentum toward 112k or down to 109.5.
Stay disciplined: trade the range, protect stops, and let closes above 112.5 and 114–116k speak. 🧭
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.