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Technical Overview – Summary Points
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Strategic Summary
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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Macro & BTC Context Summary (Twitter)
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Actionable Synthesis: Plan & Risk Management
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Key Macro Events to Watch
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Conclusion
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Technical Overview – Summary Points
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- Momentum: Dominant bullish bias on higher timeframes (1D to 2H).
- Key Supports/Resistances: Key pivot zone at 114.7K–115.8K defended across all timeframes; major resistances at 119.7K, upside extension to 122.3K.
- Volume: Peaks on breakout, normal to high volumes depending on TF, no signs of seller capitulation.
- Behavioral Indicators: Risk On / Risk Off Indicator remains strong on all strategic TFs; ISPD DIV neutral except for a defensive buy signal on 1H.
- Multi-timeframe summary: Broad horizontal consolidation, no panic or euphoria detected. Major supports overlap, confirming structural strength amid macro volatility.
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Strategic Summary
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- Overall bias: Bullish above 114.7K; neutral/slightly bearish below this key level.
- Opportunities: Longs via scalping/range trading on reactions at 114.7–115.8K; swing accumulation on daily/4H stabilization above 115K.
- Risk: Break below <114.7K, macro volatility around NFP/PMI, false breakouts.
- Macro catalysts: Expanded US tariffs (Trump), NFP, PMI, Fed status.
- Action plan: Reactivity on pivots, reduce exposure during macro events, hard stops <114.5K H4.
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Multi-Timeframe Analysis
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- 1D: Working the 114723 pivot support. Bullish momentum, no excessive selling, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator “STRONG BUY”.
- 12H-6H: Building a bottom on the daily base; sustained volumes during sell-off, no panic, technical buy signals emerging.
- 4H-1H: Vigorous support defense, 1H ISPD DIV “buy” signal. Healthy range pattern; volumes up during rebound attempts.
- 30min-15min: Slow recovery after high-volume drop, no euphoria or capitulation. No “trap” or imminent squeeze, favorable for tactical trades.
- Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Higher TFs (1W/1D/12H/4H) show strong bullish signals, boosting risk confidence. Decorrelation with lower TFs allows flexible management, controlled accumulation, tight stops at 114.7K.
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Macro & BTC Context Summary (Twitter)
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- Macro: US tariff shock, max volatility likely, amplified moves in equities and crypto.
- Bitcoin: Sharp correction post-record close, but solid supports remain, no sign of trend end.
- Integration: Technical status quo; favor defensive accumulation, caution on NFP/PMI.
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Actionable Synthesis: Plan & Risk Management
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- Strategies: Longs/scalp >114.7K; swing/accumulate post daily/4H confirmation; partial TPs near 119.7K/122.3K.
- Risk Zones: Hard stop <114.5K. Tight monitoring around NFP for volatility spikes.
- Reward: Risk-to-reward >2 if buying lower range with strict stops.
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Key Macro Events to Watch
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- 2025-08-01: US NFP, unemployment, hourly wages – High volatility expected, possible swings
- 2025-08-01: ISM Manufacturing PMI – Short-term trend confirmation or invalidation
- 2025-07-30: FED conference – Range-bound / Moderate volatility
- US Tariffs (Trump) – Global risk-off, caution BTC & tech
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Conclusion
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- BTC consolidates steadily between 114.7K–122.3K despite macro shocks
- Daily/H4 supports robust, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator strong on higher TFs
- Accumulation/scalping favored as long as supports defended
- Main risk = break of 114.7K, imminent macro volatility
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.