Bitcoin
Long

Upward Momentum, Caution Near 106,500–110,000 Resistance

31
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Technical Overview – Summary Points

  • Momentum: Strong bullish bias on mid/long-term (1D-4H), short-term "Down" divergences (1H/2H). Overall alignment, no capitulation/euphoria signals.
  • Key supports / resistances: Supports at 103,300/102,600 (D Pivot Low, 720 Pivot). Major resistances: 106,480–109,952. Price compression under daily/weekly resistance, technical rejection risk.
  • Volumes: Normal to moderately high, 1H abnormal volumes signal possible squeeze.
  • Multi-TF: Bullish confluence 1D–6H, short-term Down divergences, caution required for late long entries under resistance.
  • Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: "Strong Buy" signal consolidated across all timeframes except 15min (neutral ST), sector bullish.
  • ISPD DIV: Neutral on all TFs – no behavioral overheating or exhaustion.


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Strategic Summary

  • Overall bias: Bullish HTF setup (1D–4H), buy opportunities on dips towards 103,300/102,600, stop <102,000.
  • Risk zones: 106,480–109,950 = resistance cluster, active management required. Technical invalidation below 102,000.
  • Macro catalysts: Window of increased volatility 15:00–16:00 UTC (CB Consumer Confidence & Powell speech). Middle East geopolitics = “wildcard”, caution on any escalation.
  • Action plan: Buy on pullback, manage actively >106,000, mandatory protection during news hours, reassess post-macro-volatility.


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Multi-Timeframe Analysis

  1. 1D & 12H: Upward momentum confirmed, solid supports, no exhaustion signals, Risk On / Risk Off Indicator "Strong Buy".
  2. 6H–4H: Technical and behavioral confirmation, constructive volumes, caution near immediate resistances.
  3. 2H–1H: Short-term downside divergence, 1H very high volumes = potential squeeze or shakeout, active caution required under resistance.
  4. 30min–15min: Consolidation/digestion; Risk On / Risk Off Indicator neutral at 15min, no impulsive entry point yet.
  5. Summary: Robust up-structure on HTF, buy-side strategies on dips favoured, active management imperative near resistance and macro volatility events.


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Fundamental, On-Chain & Macro Risks Analysis

  • Macro news: No immediate catalysts except USD news (CB Consumer Confidence, Powell) at 15:00-16H00 UTC, source of temporary volatility – no prevailing trend in question at this stage.
  • On-chain / Market: High volumes, institutional leadership, no “retail” panic, no flush/fomo, healthy structure.
  • Leverage: OI >$95B, stablecoin dominance, risk contained except on external triggers (macro, geopolitical).
  • Geopolitics: Middle East context = spike risk, active management mandatory on escalation.


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Summary:
• Dominant bias Up (buy on dips >102,600), active management below major resistances (106,500–110,000).
• Key stop <102,000 (invalidation).
• Increased risk window: 15:00–16:00 UTC (USD news).
• Monitor leverage, adjust exposure ahead of key catalysts.

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